Polymarket is the big brother in the decentralized betting village, operating on Polygon. Polymarket has just updated the probability that Binance will go bankrupt by the end of 2023 is about 11%. Although this number seems low, but the fact that the market is starting to believe in the possibility that a giant like Binance is also at risk of default, is this a bad sign for the market?
Polymarket predicts 11% chance of Binance defaulting by the end of 2023
Binance is predicted to default on Polymarket
According to Polymarket, this prediction market was created on July 17 and will end on December 31, 2023, provided that “Binance.com has declared bankruptcy or has filed any filings. sign bankruptcy."
In addition, the market will return " Yes " if the above condition occurs, or if "BTC and/or ETH withdrawals from Binance.com are suspended for the majority of users for at least 7 consecutive days. continuous (168 hours)" before December 31, 2023. In the event that none of the above two conditions are met, this market will return " No ".
If the market participant chooses "Yes" and the bankruptcy of Binance is correct, the shares representing this option are increased to the mark of 1 USD, and vice versa.
Up to now, the number of transactions above for this bet is only about 15,000 USD, with 11% leaning towards the "Yes" scenario.
The Polymarket prediction market allows traders to bet on a 'Yes' or 'No' outcome for almost any event. The probability of each outcome is determined by the majority opinion of traders with trading assets from 0% to 100%, representing from 0 to 1 USD. When an event occurs, the correct bettors will be paid 1 USD for each share they own.
Further explanation for the above Binance bet example: if 100 USD bet on 'Yes' outcome (i.e. Binance will go bankrupt), the participant will receive approximately 833 shares (equivalent to 833 USD). get returned). Meanwhile, if you vote 'No' (the most likely outcome), you will receive 113 shares, or 113 USD.
However, those who intend to bet should also carefully consider whether to join this platform because Polymarket has been "touched" by the CFTC before. Furthermore, in January, the platform was reported to have violated the provisions of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) with a fine of $1.4 million.
Binance is "due" in 2023
The reason the above prediction market appeared is because Binance has been constantly involved in legal troubles in many countries in recent years, especially the lawsuit filed by the US SEC, and has been subject to the authorities of countries such as the UK and the Netherlands. Lan, Belgium, Cyprus, Brazil, Austria, France, Germany and Australia investigated.
Not stopping there, the floor was also rumored to be laying off large-scale personnel, with the number reported by many media outlets as up to 1,000 positions, and at the same time cutting many employee benefits for the reason of declining profits. reduce. Several senior Binance managers also chose to resign in the face of regulatory pressure.
In a June post, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao stated “… user assets are always safe and secure on every platform affiliated with Binance.”
