Recently , the Bitcoin market has continued to fluctuate in the $29,000 range, but last night (January) it hit a low of $28,585, and then started a wave of rapid rebound. At the time of writing, the highest reached $30,047, and once again stood at $30,000. Ethereum It was also oscillating around $1,880.
Bitcoin Volatility Pressure Has Peaked, Outbreak Is Coming
Regarding the recent currency price trend, the research institution K33 Research released a latest Bitcoin research report stating that the current low volatility is on the eve of a "volcanic eruption". The report first pointed out that the current 5-day volatility of Bitcoin is lower than that of traditional securities and even gold:
Bitcoin's five-day volatility is currently lower than the Nasdaq, the S&P 500, and even gold. IVs followed suit, falling to all-time lows.
If the time is longer, the current 30-day volatility of Bitcoin has reached a low point in nearly 5 years . Such low volatility only lasted for 8 days in January 2019.
Historical experience tells us that the weakening volatility of Bitcoin often means that larger fluctuations are about to occur, so the current period of low volatility may soon end. K33 senior analyst Vetle Lunde said:
My short-term view is that the market's volatility pressure is about to reach its peak, and an outbreak is imminent.
SEC's Response to Bitcoin Spot ETF Will Create Big Short-Term Bitcoin Volatility
At the same time, Lunde believes that Bitcoin’s volatility needs a large event as a catalyst. In his opinion, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)’s response to the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) filings filed by Ark 21Shares, BlackRock and others, Potentially causing Bitcoin volatility in the weeks and months ahead:
However , Lunde did not make a positive judgment on this, but believed that all applications will be rejected and postponed:
I expect all ongoing filings to be delayed, at least until the outcome of Grayscale's lawsuit with the SEC.
But I don't expect these events to have as much of an impact on market volatility. Still, I'm inclined to hold a lot of Bitcoin and accumulate more aggressively over the summer in case the verdict comes sooner than expected.
Further reading: U.S. judge: SEC rejects Grayscale Bitcoin ETF for "insufficient reasons", Bloomberg: Grayscale's chances of winning the lawsuit have risen by 70%
K33 is optimistic about the cryptocurrency market in 2024
In addition, Lunde also commented on Curve Finance, a stablecoin liquidity agreement that has recently been hacked, and believes that the current liquidation risk faced by the agreement will have an unpredictable negative impact on the market:
These liquidations can have a huge negative effect on the market, driving up volatility, and these events are difficult to predict in advance.
But overall, Lunde remains bullish on cryptocurrencies in 2024, both before and after the bitcoin halving, and where the bitcoin spot ETF is headed.
