Foreword by ALD (@Daji_357):
I have been saying that I will write an article about NFT, but due to some reasons, I am in arrears until now. During the period, I posted some posts one after another, and chatted about some opinions in fragments. Stumbled across this comment the other day and decided to speed things up. Thanks to every partner for their recognition, this is the motivation for me to write late at night.
The content is divided into several categories :
Talking about the development history of NFT
Rationally analyze the differences between ETH and BTC NFT from an objective perspective
Alpha shared "The BTC NFT project that is most likely to become the next BAYC at the moment"
Talking about the development history of NFT
ETH
It has been more than two years since the NFT bull market in 2021, and the myth of BAYC happened quietly at this time in 21 years.
The price has soared from around 200u at the time of mint, and then the roller coaster reached today's price of around 30eth. At this stage, the total increase is as high as about 285 times.
With this year's Hongdou project incident, the overall NFT market suffered another setback in the cold winter. In the same year, the inscription series NFT headed by "ETHS" appeared on the ETH network.
BTC
At the beginning of this year, BTC's new narrative of ordinals caused an uproar in the market, and BTC opened a new chapter in the ecology of inscriptions. As the inscription series tokens headed by "ORDI" skyrocketed, it also drove the popularity of BTC inscription series NFT.
From the initial re-engraving of BAYC to the PUNK series of inscriptions, and then to the emergence of various PEPE series of inscriptions, the BTC NFT market has gradually enriched; the continuous wealth creation effect has been generated, and a large amount of traffic has poured in, causing OK and Binance to enter the market. The different concerns of the front-line exchanges.
With the emergence of the concept of recursive inscriptions, BTC NFT began to enter a relatively calm development cycle. Recently, the concept of recursive inscriptions has ushered in an upgrade, the market has become active again, and the phenomenal project MBAC has appeared.
Regardless of whether the NFT is ETH or BTC, or whether the inscription is ETH or BTC, mutual discrimination is not recommended.
According to different time and space, objectively analyze the different advantages and disadvantages of the two, so as to find the right investment method.
Any project has its own development cycle at different stages and at different times.
Rationally analyze the differences between ETH and BTC NFT from an objective perspective
ALD himself is not from a technical background, but I often said in some previous exchanges that I may not know but must not understand things other than what I am good at.
Through the communication with some technical friends, the difference between the two is described in the form of an example 🌰:
ETH NFT itself is a protocol category, like a picture stored in the cloud (incurring storage costs).
BTC NFT itself is an inscription, like a pattern carved on wood.
As early as 2022, I proposed that most of the NFTs in the ETH ecosystem are a powerful and effective market operation tool, rather than a financial carrier. The reason will be explained in detail later, and then I will use some 🌰 to list some different emphases .
Most of ETH's NFTs are divided into three categories:
Products operated in a commercial model (early stage)｜Mint income; copyright fees; commercial value; derivatives
Products with goods under the star effect (early stage)｜Mint income; transaction fee
Free mint's gameplay products (current) ｜ Transaction fees
The most intuitive representative of the 1⃣️ category of products is the BAYC project. With the popularity and other influential factors, it has steadily become the leader in the NFT market.
2⃣️ I won’t say too much about the products, I just remember that someone announced in a high-profile ins shortly after the release that he would like to mention the new car.
The 3⃣️ category of products is quite special. Among all the projects, the most outstanding one is the Goblin project.
The essential difference is that the 1⃣️2⃣️ project has a pre-sale fee before the launch, and the project party’s income points mainly include mint income and transaction fee income, while the 3⃣️ project mainly earns income through transaction fees.
As mentioned in the previous content, if a healthy project wants to develop maturely, it must be a community of interests that satisfies multiple roles. Whether it is a project party, a platform, a banker, a large investor, or a retail investor, they must find the value that can exist in it.
🌰The cycle length of the project depends on the choice of its business model🌰🌰🌰🌰
Taking BAYC as an example, the project party has obtained a large amount of funds in the early stage of income, so that it can continue to build the ecology of the project. The better the ecological construction of the project, the higher the income from copyright fees. The project party itself has to bear the operating cost** of the project (the cost of cloud storage of pictures). **
Because of the popularity of BAYC, the platform has brought huge attention to the NFT sector. The platform has gained a large number of users and earned transaction fees through user transactions. What the platform needs to bear is the platform's operating costs, technology research and development, and various types of capital security.
Because the bankers and big players have obtained their ideal number of chips, they use all their own resources to promote the crowd, increase the popularity of the project, and maximize their profits. The cost lies in the labor cost and the capital cost of buying chips.
Retail investors... join in the fun, socialize... I won't say much about this, buying a picture to be happy and beautiful is also a kind of income.
In contrast to celebrity projects, the initial huge profits are all earned by the celebrities themselves in the form of endorsement advertisements, leaving little funds for project operators. Facing the pressure of huge operating costs, it is only wise to run softly lift. This is not aimed at a certain project, please do not take a seat on the number, and even some project official websites are gone, so I won’t name them.
Therefore, regardless of market factors and the basic quality of people; as a project party:
When the initial income + copyright fee > project expenditure/year, theoretically speaking, the project can operate stably.
When factors such as the market are taken into consideration, as the popularity of the project declines and the copyright fee decreases, the annual operating costs will not make ends meet. Unless you have a particularly strong sense of mission, you will basically choose to stop losses in time, which is also in line with human nature.
"If you are monitoring certain NFT projects, if you can understand the above content, there is a high probability that it can help you"
Looking at the free mint project, there is an influx of retail investors with extremely low costs, and the influx of rogues. Most projects are due to the fact that the dealer cannot get the ideal bargaining chips. extremely low. Without the main liquidity, the project party has no copyright fee to earn, and it is finally reduced to the use of avatars. (This is also the reason why virtue does not match)
Therefore, due to the flaws in the business model of such projects, most of them are the final choice of the project party. However, if a project has a steady stream of traffic heat, this view can be overturned.
If the copyright fee > project expenditure/year, the operation can be rationalized. The necessary condition is that the traffic is extremely large and the popularity will never decline.
Let's look at BTC NFT again
Due to the congenital defect of BTC itself (no smart contract operation), the copyright fee has become a difficult problem at the beginning. There is no permanent income point for the project party, and the market trend of inscriptions is low gas cost casting. It is difficult for the project party to find a very suitable business model design. During this period, we can see a variety of attempts at project models with ideas:
From the beginning of the free mint mainstream, because there is no copyright fee to earn, most projects have no support from the platform and the popularity. With the distribution of chips from the project party/main force, they let go, and the project begins to enter a soft landing state until it becomes liquid. Sexual exhaustion.
Later, some projects began to try the mode of paying mint fees, but due to the obstruction of copyright fees, in line with the principle of making money and running away, the outcome can be imagined.
However, under these difficult conditions, with the construction of the platform and the advantages of community efforts and traffic, there are still some very impressive projects that have finally stood on the altar.
The project behind it is the Ordinals trading platform. As a pixel frog known as the golden shovel, holders have received a large number of NFT airdrops from the platform since the beginning. During the hot period of the BTC NFT project, it has always been in the first echelon of popularity , deeply loved by BTC whale. The only fly in the ointment is that the quantity is small at the time of design. Due to the habit of hoarding by big players, it is difficult for many chips to be radiated to community users.
Bit Frog is the most popular project in BTC NFT, and it can be described as the top traffic existence. It has been the top 1 in the trading list for a long time. As I said earlier, due to the lack of sustainable income, with the transfer of chips from the big players and the impact of the naked frog incident, the popularity of the project has gradually cooled down, and now the price is also trending. nearly stable.
"BTC BAYC"
For the BAYC reproduced on BTC, forgive me for not finding the url link, and I cannot perform hyperlink operations. As for the value of this collection now, I can't check it. The reason for putting it here is mainly because the atmosphere of the project community is very strong, and everyone uses the mentality of entertainment first to play the derivative value of the BTC BAYC project out of financial accidents.
Although the flaws in the economic model cannot satisfy the existence of multiple interest communities, we have still seen a lot of lessons learned in the past few months. These conclusions promote the steady development of the BTC NFT project, but!
"Asset Originality"——
"BTC's special attributes" ( @Garey51616 thanks to Shitou for science popularization)
Different from the mainstream off-chain storage methods currently used by ETH NFT (centralized, centralized verifiable, decentralized, decentralized and repairable off-chain storage), each NFT on BTC is based on a "Satoshi" tree. Inscribed, whose essence is equal to
The price of "Satoshi" + the brand premium of NFT
Therefore, the bottom layer of BTC NFT determines the special attribute that its value itself will continue to appreciate over time.
Calculated according to the casting cost of 10U, the price of BTC at this time is 30,000 U; when the price of BTC reaches 300,000 U, its own value will appreciate with the appreciation of BTC, reaching 100U.
Therefore, even when you 100u bought a premium NFT at 30,000 bitcoins, when his brand premium returns to 0, you can still have a probability of paying back at 300,000 U bitcoins. (The premise is that you didn't sell him at 10u)
give a 🌰
BTC NFT is like you forged a bracelet with gold, you paid 100 yuan gold price + 100 yuan brand value. The total cost is 200 yuan. (Don't argue that the price is low, I don't have it if you want to buy it.)
Suddenly one day the brand no longer exists, but at this time your gold bracelet is still worth 100 yuan in gold. With the ensuing turmoil, the price of gold soared, and at this moment the gold value of your gold bracelet has tripled.
You happily took the gold bracelet to the pawnshop and melted it into gold and exchanged it for 300 yuan.
The bottom layer of blockchain technology will not disappear with time, as long as human activities continue. It is foreseeable that the emergence of the current Bitcoin inscriptions provides a permanent, effective and value-preserving carrier for various forms of art.
Humans invented paper 2,000 years ago, and used paper to carry painting art. However, in history, countless arts were destroyed due to wars, natural disasters, and man-made disasters. This technology has the characteristics of decentralization, permanent storage, openness and transparency. It is the carrier of the best art form of our time. From now on, art will no longer have to worry about being eliminated due to political persecution, or dissipating due to fire and tsunami. Don't worry about the passage of ten thousand years. It is epoch-making, and it is also great, so that human art will be eternal.
** ——Brother Stone @Garey51616 **
However, due to the problem that BTC has no smart contract, most projects of BTC NFT at this stage have abandoned the aesthetics and chose to use pixel-like visual effects for presentation. It's a bit like the initial development of ETH NFT, but with the emergence and upgrade of recursive inscriptions, we will soon see a visual feast.
Summary: (personal opinion, welcome to discuss)
Therefore, to look at the NFT of ETH and BTC objectively through different time, space, conditions and other factors,
Under the conditions of the NFT boom in 21 years, ETH's business model was the most perfect in the space it was in at that time, and it could be called a work of art and the most widely accepted and even imitated.
With the passage of time, the instrumental application of gamefi (including Metaverse) and the community, the instrumental attributes of NFT gradually surpassed its financial attributes.
Everyone has gradually discovered that the financial attributes brought by their artworks are gradually fading, and the application of tools can maximize the role of ETH smart contract NFT.
After all, the latter will be continuously consumed and used according to the needs of other conditions, thereby increasing its liquidity. However, the former gradually began to lose money with the decrease of liquidity and the stability of operating costs. If no new source of income was found, it would have to rely on the strong capital of the project party to persist.
In contrast, BTC NFT, after several months of exploration, although no ideal business model has emerged, its own characteristics of asset originality make it not worry about the baptism of time, but like old wine, the longer it is, the more valuable it becomes.
Although in the current time, BTC NFT has not yet appeared a project with high visual effect and perfect business model, but with the passage of time, new attempts and technological upgrades, I believe that these problems will be slowly resolved sooner or later.
The point of view here is only from the perspective of maximizing the role, whether it is ETH or BTC, the popularity of each project can make the ecology of both sides play a complementary role.
So individuals will not be biased against projects based on opinions. Allow any project to have a development process under different time periods.
Alpha shared "The BTC NFT project that is most likely to become the next BAYC at the moment"
Combining the previous content, it is not difficult to conclude that a project that can develop stably must be a community of interests with multiple roles.
As far as we know, MBAC is currently a BTC ecological NFT designed in the form of recursive inscriptions. Twitter was active in early July, and the official website interface was announced in early August.
The official announcement is to combine the film business model with NFT in the form of a new film-fi track, and deploy it in the BTC ecosystem. At present, 8888 of the 10,000 NFTs are sold on the homepage of the official website at a price of 0.006 btc.
At the beginning of the project, 1,000 OG (temple qualifications) were distributed to the community. The OG gameplay is very interesting. 150 Twitter won the prize, 200 community cooperation, and the remaining 650 OG winners need to go to the official website every day to draw. New users can be invited.
The official statement at this stage is: OG can continue to receive BTC rewards (from business model income)
Through information collection in recent days, the known situation and some thoughts are as follows:
The mint payment business model adopted by the project is similar to BAYC. Compared with BAYC, the natural advantages of BTC solve the problem of NFT itself depreciating over time (as far as investors are concerned). The mint fee is about 150u - 200u, and it can almost pay back when BTC is 10 times (mint cost)
The natural disadvantage of BTC is whether the project party can have continuous income, which has not been seen in the project at this stage. But unlike ETH, BTC's NFT has no storage cost (the largest of all costs), only personnel costs. The mint fee at the initial stage of the project is enough to support a normal-sized team to operate for 10 years.
For film-fi's track selection, the current node "All or Nothing" has become an opportunity for a new business model. It really allows everyone to see the possibility of combining movies and web3. Film-fi has not seen too much information at present. I don't know if it is a new business model designed by the project party to solve lasting benefits.
NFT takes religious culture as the background, and is full of a lot of Masonic elements, which is exactly the same as Lao Ma's hobbies. In addition, X has recently started to transform into a live video track, this is just a guess, and it cannot be verified for the time being.
MBAC is different from other NFTs in that it designed a blind box opening model on the basis of BTC's non-smart contract. Two years ago, BAYC used this novel innovation to create the ETH NFT-721 craze.
Project OG has token airdrops and long-lasting commercial dividends. The overall design of the project is perfect, and the token system is considered. Currently, the token information is unknown. (unisat has a token with the same name, which has been all mint, I don’t know if it was done by the project party)
Here I will share my personal investment logic and do not make any investment advice.
In the project as a whole, the interests of the project party are sufficient at this stage. If there is no white list in the fair sale, big players and dealers can effectively enter the market. The price of 0.006btc can well isolate the hairy group from the door, and dealers and big players can quickly Good to collect desired chips. (There is no specificity here. Refer to ordi. There are too many 0-cost chips in the early stage, which leads to the current situation. Even if some dealers want to intervene in the difficulty of collecting chips. After all, the consensus is that 0-rolling is OK, and spending money is not enough.)
At this stage, there have been many major project owners in the og community, and the popularity is high, and many KOLs with a high volume of Twitter are paying attention. Therefore, from the perspective of popularity, all kinds of roles are basically in place.
The track selection and ecological selection of the project are very good. At the current time node, the selection is made public just before and after the upgrade of the recursive inscription. It is premeditated and its strength is evident. The og card, as a bonus reward method, can be compared with RACA mother box products. At present, it can be rolled at 0, and the interests of the hair-raising group can also be guaranteed.
Film and television has always been the favorite of the capital market. There is no shortage of capital budget in the traditional track. At present, the specific business model of film-fi is uncertain. After this point is confirmed, the upper limit of the OG card can be pushed down, and it is also a potential benefit for the OG card.
The current risk of the project lies in the fact that the project party does not do anything after mint is completed (currently, according to the design of the official website, it is relatively low, and the frequency of tweeting is not high), and the project is expected to have a very high BAYC potential. 150u - 200u funds to win a BAYC investment is more cost-effective. The acceptable loss amount is 10000u.
In addition to the capital investment of NFT, you can prostitute some OG qualifications for free, double protection.
Secondly, recently, major brc20 KOLs and Binance and other platforms have begun to favor BTC NFT one after another. Combined with the upgrade event of the recursive inscription and damo’s latest Twitter, I personally feel that there will be some new changes in the popularity of brc20. But whether it is ordinals or eths, the explosion of each ecology is ultimately a positive reflection of the overall track of the inscription.
I hope that everyone can find their own investment strategies and thinking methods in the ever-changing WEB3.
Thanks to @爱神.ETH (@Elon_XXX) and @Garey.tree (@Garey51616) for providing community convenience and OG tutorials and technology sharing!
Past content:
https://twitter.com/Daji_357/status/1686401648317595648?s=20
