The bear market is long and must be guarded against. Some people have to make mistakes all the time to make progress, while others make progress without making mistakes. The difference is huge.
The ratio of the two determines the level of achievement. People learn and think the day after tomorrow mainly to increase the probability of making progress without making mistakes.
In investment, the review of losses is actually the most effective, but there are generally not many serious reviews of losses. Perhaps people tend to "look forward."
But I will briefly review the most important losses. Some are well-known, some I was ashamed to mention in the past, and there are quite a few projects involved. Typical ones are $blur $cheems, and there are some atypical ones.
1. Blur points + wrong points , loss 200e
The reason for brushing up points is because everyone who brushed up points in the first quarter made a lot of money, especially since I also had a tool for brushing up points, which was semi-automated and continuously updated. I once reached the top 10 in the daily rankings, but I found that if I wanted to get high scores, I would not be able to do it. I stopped buying nft, and after receiving it, I was not patient enough to wait for the rebound, so I lost a lot of money every time I bought and sold.
Among them, the assistant made a mistake. He bid 15e for 5e nft, accepted n, and lost 100e in seconds.
I heard that every studio also makes mistakes, so it may be unavoidable, but my mistakes were a little bigger.
But looking back, when it comes to scoring points, if it’s so complicated, why do they still get together? It’s nothing more than wanting to “make a lot of money” again.
Warning 1: When you want to make a lot of money, the more anxious you are, the easier it is to lose a lot of money.
(Note: The addresses for cheating points and buying the wrong NFT have been written in past tweets, with numbers ending in a row of 8888. Later, they were abandoned because of the risks associated with good numbers.)
2. Cross-chain bridge loss is about 30E
At that time, the earth dog season was very popular. One night, I returned to the hotel at almost 1 o'clock, and after washing up, it was almost 2 o'clock. Then I saw some projects on the chain that were very popular, and I felt that they were going to explode. At that time, I planned to put some money into each chain. .
But I was very tired at that time because I usually go to bed early. At that time, I saw someone talking about how good the Harry Potter coin is. I looked at it overnight and found that it was a coin that had been cut for one round on the BSC chain, and the K-line was yanked and then smashed. I knew how to make money with this coin. It was difficult for everyone except the project team and they gave up.
But I still planned to transfer money first. I usually use a small flying saucer, but there is a limit, so I switched to multichain this time and crossed one. After waiting for more than 10 minutes, I still couldn't get the money, which was very difficult.
I wonder if there is something wrong with the two chains that transfer to each other? So I changed another 2 chains and transferred another large amount, and continued to wait. After more than 10 minutes, I guess I fell asleep and the account didn't arrive; so I changed another chain and transferred a large amount.
Then I couldn't help but fell asleep. I wasn't worried before I fell asleep. I thought there might be some small bug and I would check it out tomorrow morning.
But the account still didn't arrive the next day. At that time, my daily schedule was too full and I was very tired. I had to look at many projects and think about many things. I just followed the official tutorial and did a simple operation, but it still didn't work. I added various official telegrams for verification and then returned the payment. After being banned, I planned to deal with it later when I had some time to relax.
Everyone knows what happened next, that is, MC itself has a huge problem. Now I heard that it is still available officially. If you can cross it, the money will be gone once you cross it.
Later I complained on Twitter, various @official, and with the help of an enthusiastic person, one of the other accounts was recovered, and the other two were lost.
Warning 2: Don’t make decisions late at night!
(Note: Actually, I haven’t figured out why I continued to transfer large amounts even though the account was not credited. Maybe I was too sleepy at the time and lost my head)
3. Buy Pixiu and lose 10e (80e)
There is a coin, it should be called $arbniu, I may not remember it accurately. At that time, my family was anxious to ask me to go out to play. It was the weekend and the sun was shining outside, so I was a little impatient. This coin is on the arb chain, and the pool is built on sushiswap. I rarely use this.
When purchasing, I directly entered arbniu and a coin came out. After checking the price and avatar, it was the one I wanted to buy. After buying 10e (I usually pay this amount, unless there are exceptions), I went out.
It must have been a few days. It was a short period of time and it increased 10 times. I was very happy to sell it, but found that I couldn't sell it. I felt dark in my heart. Once I verified it, it turned out to be Pixiu. I was a little dazed. I felt that my loss was not 10e, but It's 80e.
Later, I found out in the community that it turned out that this Pixipan reported that the genuine coin had been removed from the sushi list. So: the fake coins were on the list and could be displayed by typing their name, and had a profile picture; the genuine coins were only You can use the contract, and there is no avatar after entering the name! awful!
Warning 3: Don’t buy things when you are in a hurry. You will lose money if you are in a hurry. This is metaphysics.
4. cheems pattern, loss 100e+
The first half of the year was generally smooth. Various golden dogs were hit one after another. The frequency of moves was not high, and the market was rarely opened. It was basically a comprehensive judgment at the second level, so although the moves were late, there were generally many big golden dogs, such as -20232023202320232023 -3- $pepe $aidoge $rfd etc. In this case, a set of logic is formed, and at the same time, it will become more and more confident.
At this time cheems appeared. At that time, there was a background that I was betting all my money on zk. The hair-raising team I formed focused on zk. At that time, the address growth was rapid and the gas was high. My friends have spent nearly 200E gas in the past six months, of which zk accounted for the main part in the early stage due to high gas.
(Note: Have you ever noticed that it’s a bit like getting points with blur? You squeeze in when there are a lot of people, but you don’t feel anything unusual? If you ask me how I feel now, I’m actually not sure whether the gas I spent on zk can be recovered. Book……)
Talking back to cheems, I thought at the time that I needed to use swap to trade airdrops. At that time, the most popular swap was cheems, and the most popular coin was cheems - the more popular it was, the more it proved that my judgment was correct.
I have imagined a lot of hot scenarios where zk is popular, airdrops are profitable, and cheems is also popular as a leader.
I even came to the conclusion that memes are the best way to start a new chain. At this time, some well-known people in the industry revealed to me some roadside social news. They were vaguely taking the lead in ZK, igniting the atmosphere of the public chain, and there was a longing for new things in the industry.
"Meme is the best way to start a new chain." My theory is actually correct. Look at the bald currency later. It was launched on the base chain. With a pull, thousands of eth were transferred to it. Although no one expected this bald rug to be so fast, it also verified that the theory of meme starting a chain is feasible. .
Of course, I wouldn’t look at it that way now, because many Europeans and Americans, especially those who are serious about projects, actually look down on memes.
But as a currency speculator, I don’t actually think about it that much. Since I wrote on Twitter and bought it at that time, cheems has increased 10 times. I guess I made a lot of money. But I didn't sell any of them, and then there was a correction and the price fell by 50%. At this time, I still had several times the profit, and I was still considering whether to hold it. But it seems to be very strong, and it has been able to survive several major market crashes, and some seemingly reliable gossip gives me some hope.
Not only did I not get out, but I also bought hundreds of thousands of dollars at the buy the dips at 0.08 - I firmly believe that a chain like zk, a project with such a big pool, a project that is strong despite the market crash, may be able to survive as soon as the market picks up. It’s soaring to the sky. If ZK issues an airdrop in advance, it will trigger a wave of speculation in leading companies. If it reaches a sky-high market value like Aidoge, there is still room for more than 10 times.
It's a pity that "whenever you want to make a big move, you will get a big fight."
So I lost a lot of money, almost never sold it, and ended up with a loss. I guess everyone who followed my address laughed at me (my address on the chain was not deliberately concealed, it is more Buddhist, and Debank has some followers).
This is a project where a group of friends make money and I lose money - and it is the project that I am "most confident" about. The reason for losing money is not only my own belief that "meme is the best way to start a new chain" , but also I believe that gossip and inside information are also a factor.
So in this project, basically, there are several types of money losses. Some are lost money in a vague way, and some are lost money clearly. Cheems belongs to the latter, so the lessons will be more profound.
After that, I extremely shrunk my social circle and only interacted with a very small number of people. I no longer relied on various sources of information and focused my energy on good projects.
How to define a good project? I recently made a form myself. Before each investment, I fill in the form, score it, evaluate each item, operate with a certain objectivity, and abandon subjective and uncertain content.
Warning 4: It is strictly forbidden to speculate on good projects and good project developers. It is strictly prohibited to speculate on good projects and good project developers. It is strictly forbidden to use news, and you must avoid letting news get back into your own brain.
Note: Cheems was in a bad mood after making and losing a lot of money. One night he called one of my best friends and told me that I had lost a lot of money recently and what was the reason.
He said this would never have happened if it were him. Because he always approaches everything with suspicion rather than belief. He analyzed that it may be because the clients he deals with every day basically don’t tell the truth to lawyers, so he always maintains his own logic in dealing with things instead of trusting them. Be gullible or fall into your own beautiful imagination.
We have been friends for many years, and he said that my characteristics are optimism, kindness, and always thinking too well about people and things. Of course, he also encouraged me and said that this is the reason why I continue to make progress.
When we were chatting that day, I heard his first reaction when he told me that he would never be such a fool. I almost felt like crying with laughter: Oh, the reason for my depression would never exist in others, because of his way of thinking. The framework is more mature.
5. ZTX lost 400,000
Bigtime was late to observe, but still dared to take heavy positions and sold them in time to make a profit. This made me feel that a big opportunity for chain games was coming, so I paid special attention to the track of chain games - in fact, the track of chain games All of Tao’s high-quality projects have been included in the watch list.
Just recently, ztx will issue coins. The investor of this project is a market maker with a Korean background. It is also very popular in Korea and is very fierce in speculating in coins. Moreover, as soon as this coin was listed, three of them were listed, covering different regions. I felt that the project team was going to do something.
So like bigtime, I took a big position, but unlike bigtime, this time it went up at the opening. As a result, it fell all the way after it went up. In the middle, I saw that the trend was wrong and I started to reduce my position until I sold most of it recently. Bo took back more than half of Bigtime's profits.
The review is actually very simple. The market is all about speculation on an emotion. If you want high returns, you have to start before the emotion ferments. Unfortunately, this project is in the Chinese area where the ability to buy coins is also very strong. No one pays attention to it - the project itself and bigtime and other Compared with the 3a masterpieces of the same period, its gameplay is not very interesting.
But I actually have an idea here. The project of ztx’s parent company also plays the same way. I don’t like it with 100 million downloads on the Google Store. There must be others who like it, and it will most likely become popular! The result is wrong, which shows that crypto projects still need to be liked by crypto people - it is better to use common sense to judge.
Warning: Making money through speculation is luck, losing money is the norm, so avoid engaging in speculation.
6. Give up small opportunities to seize big opportunities
The above are some of the typical losses. There may be some other small ones that I have forgotten. There are also some such as not selling at ordi 30, not to mention only selling at 15. That may not be included in the loss for review.
Since cheems, I have decided not to write about any projects on Twitter and just buy them myself. This is why everyone has seen a drastic change in my tweeting style - I have decided to make money through investment and not become someone who may influence the market.
In this process of closed-door investment, one clear realization is that only by giving up small opportunities can we seize big opportunities.
There are many opportunities that seem to be able to make a little money and increase, but you will make money today and lose money tomorrow. In fact, your mind will be dominated by speculative thinking without even realizing it.
On the other hand, if there is always a big wave, combined with the previous traps, it is actually easy to take heavy positions and cause big losses.
So the best thing to do is: look for big opportunities where you can take a position, but you don't need to take a big position.
This sounds a bit strange, even contradictory, but the core is actually:
On the one hand, being able to take a large position means that the popularity of this project will be huge, and there will be no fluctuations in the shipment of 1 million U in the future. The probability of losing money by participating in this opportunity will be low, at least not because of low liquidity. One person crashes it.
On the other hand, there is no need to take a large position, which means that if you grasp an opportunity accurately, it may be 10 times the size. Then if you buy 100,000 yuan, the profit will be 1 million, and if you buy 1 million yuan, the profit will be 10 million.
Isn't this enough? That's enough, so for me, the largest position only requires 1 million. No matter how big it is, it may actually face greater risks.
Another thing is to focus on good projects and good teams. The risk of junk projects is not only the risk of secondary fluctuations, but also the risks of various rat warehouse shipments and market crashes.
Of course, the good projects and good teams mentioned above are also relative. Valuations are generally high in the crypto. The most important thing is still: emotion, emotion, emotion!
This sounds contrary to the investment I talked about above, and seems too speculative. Some friends may seem to sneer at it, but there is no way, this is the reality of the crypto.
Think about it, a public chain that no one uses is worth tens of billions. How does it make sense that Microsoft bought 50% of AI that changed the world for 10 billion?
If you exclude the emotional impact and look at the projects, you will find that things in the crypto are really overestimated. Just like eth, it is now 160 billion US dollars. Is it high? At least it can't be said to be very cheap, right? After all, compare Apple and Tesla. Behind the trillion-dollar market value is the efforts of countless people. The products are marketed around the world and have changed people's lives.
Okay, let’s not talk about these frustrating things, let’s talk about something happy: the ETF is approved, tens of thousands of coins are flying, and everyone here will make a fortune.
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