This week in review
This week from December 25 to January 1, the highest price of BTC was close to $43,802 and the lowest was close to $41,300, with a fluctuation range of about 5.71%. Observing the chip distribution chart, there is a large number of chips traded near about 41871, which will provide certain support or pressure.
• analyze:
1. 39000-43000 about 1.97 million pieces;
2. 34000~38000, about 1.33 million pieces;
• The probability of not falling below 36000~38000 in the short term is 92%;
• The probability that it will not rise above 45,000~47,000 in the short term is 50%.
Important news
economic news
1. Data released by the United States showed that the number of initial jobless claims for the week of December 23 was 218,000, higher than the expected 210,000 and higher than the previous value of 205,000.
2. The number of initial claims rose slightly, but remained close to historic lows, and job growth reinforced some predictions that the Federal Reserve will successfully achieve a soft landing for the economy after nearly two years of aggressive interest rate hikes.
3. Strategist Amanda Sunstrom said that in 2024, the market is preparing for a "Goldilocks" scenario, in which the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates to a level sufficient to stimulate the economy without reigniting inflationary pressures.
4. Wall Street is betting heavily that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next year. Campbell Harvey, the father of U.S. bond yield curve forecasting, said that the curve between the 3-month and 10-year U.S. bond yields has been inverted for the past 13 months. This is The average time before an economy enters a recession. The Fed should cut interest rates as soon as possible to help solve the problem.
Encrypted ecological news
1. DogeDesigner asked in X: Does anyone still remember NFT? Musk’s reply: It turns out they are somewhat fungible, and at least JPEGs should be encoded on the blockchain.
2. Tether consultant Gabor Gurbacs said: Investment products have developed from stocks to hedge funds, to mutual funds, to ETFs, each of which has created a trillion-dollar market. Next, stablecoins will have the potential to create the next A multi-trillion dollar market.
3. Statistics from official registers of EU member states show that by the end of 2023, at least 11,597 crypto entities have been registered in the 27 EU member states. Nearly 1,000 new crypto entities will be registered in the EU in 2023.
4. The “Dencun (Cancun) upgrade” of the Ethereum test network on January 17th will improve data storage capabilities while reducing the costs associated with Ethereum’s second-layer solutions; if the spot BTC ETF is approved, this will have a significant impact on ETH This bodes well for the potential of spot ETFs.
5. As of December 20, cryptocurrency hedge funds had an average return of 44% this year, rebounding from a 52% loss in 2022. They were the best performers among the 29 fund strategies tracked by foreign media.
6. VisionTrack executive Bailey York said fundraising for active funds is starting to pick up and new fund managers have entered the market, especially in Singapore, Hong Kong, Dubai, London and Switzerland.
7. Coinbase’s BTC balance has dropped significantly to about 411,000, the lowest level since 2015. About 30,000 BTC have recently left the platform.
8. Hashdex, the BTC spot ETF application agency, released the second spot BTC ETF commercial advertisement.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently at, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face.
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; as well as the emergence of some directions and the possibility of certain events occurring under certain conditions.
long term insights
• Net position of long-term investors
• Whale buying and selling status
• Global status of derivatives
The buying intention of long-term participants has begun to decline, and the previous large purchases have begun to turn into relative selling.
At this stage, we have temporarily lost the purchasing support of some long-term participants.
The situation of whale has also begun to fall into divergence. Whale have changed from previous purchases to relative decline and re-purchase, as well as a decrease in willingness. The whale temporarily fell into a hesitant stage.
The global derivatives state has entered a relatively unstable state.
Derivatives data shows that the current situation is not absolutely safe.
In the future, you may need to be cautious. Although the trend is more certain, it may take a period of hesitation or struggle.
mid-term exploration
• Accumulate trend points
• Long-term, short-term ratio
• Seller risk factor
• Accumulated address proportion
• Exchange trend net position
The main buyers in the near future are large investors and whale groups of 100-1k, 1k-10k.
Other groups are relatively divided, and the combined effect is not significant.
In the near future, except for large investors and whale, there may be buyers who are on the sidelines or cautious in purchasing.
The increase in short-term groups will also give the market structure a new look.
In a proportional relationship, the proportional growth of the short-term group is greater than that of the long-term, which may be a good thing relative to the market.
Judging from the current situation, if the relative proportion of short-term groups continues to increase, the medium- and long-term fundamentals will still maintain a relatively optimistic tone.
The seller's risk coefficient shows a band-like growth. When the market's acceptance capacity increases, the proportion of seller's risk may not be high.
At the same time, the seller’s situation is not a single dimension of analysis, and it still needs to be combined with various data.
There is a slight decrease in accumulation addresses. It may be that the recent market conditions have affected the "accumulation" and "holding" groups.
At present, the decline is temporarily suspended, and it may be that this group needs to slowly adjust their emotions.
There are large amounts of currency withdrawals on the exchange, which are currently on hold.
At the same time, the currency withdrawal phenomenon this year has declined in a shock manner.
If combined with short-term group analysis, it may be concluded that the situation of recent new buyers is better.
short term observation
• Derivatives risk factors
• Option intention transaction ratio
• Derivatives trading volume
• Option Implied Volatility
• Profit and loss transfer volume
• New and active addresses
• BTC Exchange Net Position
• ETH net position
• High weight selling pressure
• State of global purchasing power
• Stablecoin exchange net position
• Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: The risk coefficient is in the neutral zone, and the risk of derivatives is moderate.
Consistent with expectations, the risk coefficient slowly increased, and the market liquidated derivatives to a small extent. As the ETF news gets closer this week, there are currently no special expectations from the perspective of derivatives risk coefficients.
Options volume and put protection ratio both fell significantly.
The trading volume of derivatives has been at a low level in the past three weeks, waiting for the market to change.
Implied volatility has risen sharply in the short term, and options traders are more active.
Emotional state rating: partial FOMO
The current short-term holder cost comes to 36K. Combining the short-term holder cost and the chip chart, it can be seen that current market participants are still continuing to establish short-term positions. Only on the chain, excluding exchanges, around the relatively high price level of 39,000-43,000, there were approximately 340,000 more chips this week than last week.
Both new and active addresses fell back to low levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure ratings: Overall, there is a large accumulation of outflows, and the selling pressure is low.
The BTC as a whole shows a large accumulation of outflows, and all the previous inflows have been digested.
(Figure E below shows the net position of the Pacific Exchange)
The two cakes are in a state of massive outflow and accumulation.
There is heavy selling pressure on BTC, but it has not caused much harm to the market at present.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has lost a small amount compared with last week, and stablecoin purchasing power has lost a small amount.
This week is mainly due to a small loss of purchasing power in Asia. The purchasing power of Europe and America is basically the same as last week.
USDT exchange net positions are at moderate inflows.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 42,000; there is a willingness to sell at 45,000.
There is a willingness to buy at prices near 41,000 and 42,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices near 45000, 46000, 47000, 48000, and 49000.
There is a willingness to buy at prices near 40,000 and 41,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices near 44000, 45000, 46000, 47000, and 48000.
There is a willingness to buy at a price near 39,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices near 44000, 45000, and 48000.
This week’s summary:
News summary:
1. Spot ETF is expected to be approved on January 10th;
2. The Ethereum test network will be upgraded in Cancun on January 17, and the Ethereum mainnet will be upgraded in Cancun at the end of February;
3. The BTC is expected to be halved on April 17;
4. The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates for the first time on March 20.
5. Among them, the upgrade of BTC Spot ETF and Ether Cancun focuses on whether the capital flow after the upgrade is in line with market expectations;
6. The halving of the BTC and the Fed’s interest rate cut are all about speculation.
According to current data, the United States may be able to achieve a soft landing. It was very difficult in the past. From now on, it can be seen that the Federal Reserve has a more accurate grasp of the economy and expectations than in the past.
The capital market may form resonance in many aspects, which is a better phenomenon.
But more importantly, how many people can profit from the cycle and realize profits from the cycle is worthy of scrutiny.
The crossing of cycles is very complicated and weird. It is a three-dimensional and multi-faceted project.
Therefore, when the market is very favorable, appropriate restraint and profit taking are even more important. The world is not short of short-term fireworks.
The top ones are difficult to predict, and the investment plans and strategies are more reliable than these.
I hope all participants will gain something in the new year.
Long-term insights on the chain:
1. Long-term participants begin to sell their chips;
2. The purchasing intention of whale has also begun to decline;
3. Global derivatives currently show that they are not absolutely safe.
• The market is setting the tone: It has entered a relatively unstable stage, with less room for rapid increases in the future.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
1. At present, whale and large investors are still accumulating, while other groups are slightly different;
2. The proportion of short-term groups is still increasing relative to the long term;
3. The seller’s risk increases in a volatile manner, but the weight may be slightly lower;
4. Accumulating addresses may be repairing your mood;
5. There is a large amount of currency withdrawals on the exchange, which are currently on hold.
• Market tone setting: slightly divergent, volatile
New buyers are still entering the market, there are slight differences, and the market may be volatile.
Short-term observations on the chain:
6. The risk coefficient is in the neutral zone, and the risk of derivatives is moderate.
7. The number of new active addresses is relatively low.
8. Market sentiment status rating: partial to FOMO.
9. The overall net position of the exchange shows a large outflow and accumulation state, and the selling pressure is low.
10. Global purchasing power has decreased slightly compared with last week, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has decreased slightly.
11. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at the price of 42,000; there is a willingness to sell at the price of 45,000.
12. The probability of not falling below 36000~38000 in the short term is 92%; the probability of not falling below 45000~47000 in the short term is 50%.
• Market setting the tone:
ETF-related expectations may see results this week. Short-term chips continue to accumulate, and purchasing power also remains positive.
Judging from short-term data only, the probability of ETF passing expectations is relatively high.
But it is also necessary to be defensive. The accumulation of short-term chips can easily cause large fluctuations whether under "black swan" or "selling news".
WTR wishes everyone a Happy New Year 2024!
Risk warning: The above are market discussions and explorations, and do not have directional opinions on investment; please be careful to view and prevent market black swan risks.
