Analysts are XEM what will happen next as the financial world waits for the first Bitcoin ETFs to be approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), especially as filings started early this morning (January 6).
“Okay, BlackRock Amendment 19b-4 is also in place. Expect to see 11 of these tonight,” Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart said on Twitter.
Sure enough, by 6 a.m. today (January 6), all Bitcoin ETFs had filed their 19B-4 forms with the SEC.
Organizations such as stock exchanges or investment firms file a 19b-4 filing with the SEC to propose rule changes. The form details the changes and the reasons, undergoes a public XEM process, and awaits SEC approval.
“We are aware that the SEC has been working with issuers on their 19B-4s. They were XEM at the manuscripts over and over again. That's why we see the S-1 updated. The 19B-4 corrections occurred as expected by the SEC but they have not been filed yet,” Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said.
“When we see those filings returned, we will know that the SEC approves them as final,” he continued.
During a Friday Twitter Spaces interview with Rug Radio, Balchunas suggested that once the SEC begins approving a Bitcoin ETF, the asset class could be worth billions of dollars.
“A few billion would be a solid new year for any category, but I'm a little more optimistic than that, like maybe $10 billion in the first year. This is difficult to predict in the short term. In the medium term, we see $30 billion to $50 billion within three years. And then it will probably stabilize at the gold level of about $100 billion over the next five to 10 years.”
Fueling Balchunas' optimistic statement is the number of prominent investment firms filing Bitcoin ETF applications with the SEC, including leading investment firms like BlackRock.
“This is where I think I'm more optimistic because Blackrock has these model portfolios. And they have more than 100 billion USD. So if they put even 1% into this new ETF as an allocation, it's equivalent to a billion dollars,” he said.
The Bitcoin ETF tracks the current price of Bitcoin and will closely follow Bitcoin's price movements, giving investors exposure without having to purchase and store the digital asset.
“I would say the ETF is a bridge between those two worlds, which again is why it's so interesting and exciting,” Balchunas said.
Balchunas also addressed the damage that the collapse of the FTX exchange and the subsequent arrest, trial and conviction of founder Sam Bankman-Fried had on the market:
“While FTX scares the small fish out of the crypto market, the bigger fish stay, which is what these ETFs are about. Big fish don't bite immediately. Larger fish are more difficult to satisfy and sniff around the bait. You don't catch big fish right away like you do with small fish, but when you get hooked, the big fish will surprise you.”
Balchunas predicts that in the future, cryptocurrency trading is expected to become more cost-effective and efficient, with significantly lower transaction fees. This reduction in fees will be in stark contrast to the higher commissions charged by existing platforms such as Coinbase.
“Five to ten years from now, even two years from now, you're going to have a really cheap, very liquidation market, which means when you trade it, it's just one basis point, so that makes the Coinbase's commission looks like Highway Robbery (a situation where you pay too much for something).”
Balchunas also highlighted the potential benefits from the expected participation of reputable brands and SEC regulatory approval. According to him, this will add credibility and trust, underscoring the changing perspective of retail investors.
“Retail investors aren't as FOMO as they were in 2021.”
Join Bitcoin Magazine's Telegram: https://t.me/tapchibitcoinvn
Follow Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/tapchibtc_io
Follow Tiktok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tapchibitcoin
Mr. Giao
According to Decrypt
