🔥 Labor data were strong, but #DXY gave back all its gains and returned to lower levels before the NFP release. What is the cause?
🔥NFP data - US non-farm payrolls for December was released much higher than expected. Specifically in December, the number of jobs was +216K (expected to be only +170K), a sharp increase compared to the previous month's figure of +173K.🔹Unemployment rate: 3.7% (expected: 3.8%; previously: 3.7%)🔹Labor market participation rate: 62.5% (previous: 62.8%) Medium hourly earnings m/m: +0.4% (expected: +0.3%) Medium earnings per hour y/y time: +4.1% (expected: +3.9%)
🔥All the indicators look bullish on nonfarm payrolls but when XEM closely at the report, some real red flags emerge:
🔹Although the unemployment rate remains at 3.7% (expected 3.8%), the percentage of labor force participation decreased by 0.3%, which means that the structure of America's working-age population is getting worse and worse. go.🔹The number of jobs in the government sector increased by 52K, meaning that a large part of the job growth did not come from the private sector, which makes the jobs report not reflect the true nature. 🔹More importantly, 683K people lost their jobs in December but the unemployment rate did not increase, Americans are really having to work more than 1 job to survive the difficult period.
🔥The US stock market in the first days of the year was submerged in red, the reason being that economic data was still "good beyond expectations", which did not support an early interest rate cut (which the market was pushing). increased sharply because of this expectation. The market is expecting a 68% chance that interest rates will be cut for the first time in March 2024. Money entering the crypto market is increasing steadily, all data shows that the market has passed the Dip If any correction of $BTC is coming, it will be a necessary correction for a strong rising wave in the medium term.
