The United States released strong non-farm payrolls data on Friday, and U.S. stocks continued to rise, with the S&P 500 index hitting a new all-time high again. In terms of Bitcoin trends, as the selling pressure of FTX through the sale of GBTC positions has ended and the trend of GBTC capital outflows has gradually slowed down, the latest report released by Coinbase also believes that the downward pressure on Bitcoin has weakened.
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ToggleU.S. economy strong, interest rate cut to be delayed until May
A report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday showed that non-farm employment increased by 353,000 in January, far exceeding market expectations of 187,000, and the unemployment rate was 3.7%, lower than market expectations of 3.8%. Said the U.S. job market is stronger than imagined.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated at the post-meeting press conference on January 31 that it was unlikely to cut interest rates in March, which once caused panic selling pressure in the market (blue circle, the S&P 500 index fell 1.61% that day). However, the market immediately regained bullish confidence on Thursday and Friday, not only recovering the 1/31 loss, but the S&P 500 index once again hit a record high.
Lower-than-expected inflation and better-than-market employment data have reignited investors' optimism about a "soft landing" or even "no landing" for the U.S. economy. According to the CME Group FedWatch Index, the market is optimistic about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. The time has been extended to May, and as many as 60% of investors believe that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at a high level in March.
Bitcoin’s downward pressure has eased, reaching 43K again
Bitcoin's recent trend is similar to that of US stocks. It once fell below 42K on 1/31, but then rose slowly. As the selling pressure of FTX through the sale of GBTC positions has ended and the trend of GBTC capital outflows has gradually slowed down, the latest report released by Coinbase also believes that the downward pressure on Bitcoin has weakened.
Matrixport analyst Markus Thielen also cited the well-known technical indicator wave theory and pointed out that Bitcoin's recent correction from 49,000 to $38,500 constitutes the fourth wave of correction. Now that the fifth wave has begun, long positions should be re-established once it breaks through 43,000. And it is expected that the fifth wave may be completed in the first quarter, with a price target of $52,671.
