火星财经消息，据CME“美联储观察”：美联储3月维持利率在5.25%-5.50%区间不变的概率为89.5%，降息25个基点的概率为10.5%。到5月维持利率不变的概率为63.3%，累计降息25个基点的概率为33.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率为3.1%。

<div>火星财经消息，据CME“美联储观察”：美联储3月维持利率在5.25%-5.50%区间不变的概率为89.5%，降息25个基点的概率为10.5%。到5月维持利率不变的概率为63.3%，累计降息25个基点的概率为33.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率为3.1%。</div>

美联储3月维持利率不变的概率为89.5%

Mars Finance News, according to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in March is 89.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 10.5%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by May is 63.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut is 33.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point interest rate cut is 3.1%.

<div>Mars Finance News, according to CME&#39;s &quot;Fed Watch&quot;: the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in March is 89.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 10.5%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by May is 63.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut is 33.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point interest rate cut is 3.1%.</div>

The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in March is 89.5%

In the crypto world, what truly determines victory is never code, but the interplay between liquidity, power, and regulation. The rise and fall of BUSD is not merely a tragic tale of a stablecoin, but a financial war waged by exchanges attempting to "unify the world."

When BUSD was thrust onto the historical stage, it carried not only a compliance narrative, but also Binance's ambition to reshape the stablecoin order through coercive measures—by manipulating exchange rates and merging trading pairs, directly swallowing competitors' liquidity into its own ledger.

The "automatic conversion" of 2022 was a textbook example of a blitzkrieg; and 2023...

The Rise and Fall of Binance's Dominance: From BUSD's "Unification" to $U's "Conquering the World"—The Stablecoin Wars

Source: Galaxy Research; Translation: Jinse Finance xz
Bitcoin's closing price in 2025 is expected to be roughly the same as the level at the beginning of the year.
The cryptocurrency market experienced a genuine bullish wave in the first ten months of this year. Regulatory reforms continued to advance, ETFs continued to attract funds, and on-chain activity became increasingly active. Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,080 on October 6th.
However, the market failed to deliver the expected breakthrough after the initial frenzy; instead, it experienced rotation, repricing, and rebalancing. This was driven by factors such as unmet macroeconomic expectations, a shift in investment narratives, leveraged margin calls, and massive...

Galaxy: 26 Predictions for the Crypto Market in 2026

This article is from Kyle Crypto Hunt.
Compiled by Odaily Odaily(@OdailyChina); Translated by Azuma (@azuma_eth)
Editor's Note: Arthur Hayes, the legendary market predictor, co-founder of BitMEX, is at it again, offering his predictions. In today's episode of the Kyle Crypto Hunt podcast, Hayes discusses macroeconomic liquidity changes, market trends, his personal positions, and trading strategies...