The exact date for the Ethereum Cancun upgrade is set! This oft-delayed milestone upgrade has finally arrived.
On March 11, according to the summary of the 129th Ethereum Core Developers Meeting, the Ethereum Cancun upgrade will be activated on the mainnet at Beacon Slot 8626176 (estimated to be 21:54 on March 13, Beijing time).
- The biggest highlight: EIP-4844 (Proto-Danksharding), whose main purpose is to reduce Ethereum gas fees by using blobs to carry transactions.
- The biggest beneficiary: Ethereum L2s
Scroll ( http://scrollscan.com) recommends an average DA cost of 62-63% for swap/multiple calls, and an average cost of 90% for transfers. We estimate the average DA cost to be 70%.
Without weighting each type of trade, we will consider the average DA cost to be 70% (while the execution cost is 30%) 
- Optimism
According to their March 3rd article, the OP claimed that transaction fees were reduced by 70x after the implementation of EIP 4844, based on estimates from their Superchain Savings Estimator (SSE).
However, the exact method used to justify this is not specified in detail. We can now refer to this data and wait for 4844 to be officially implemented. 
- Arbitrum
We currently do not have access to data from Arbitrum to compare DA weights versus execution costs, so we cannot include them in this analysis.
However, Arbitrum developer Offchain Labs published a great article about this: What does EIP4844 mean for L2 users? 》
Now that we have the average cost of DA and the execution cost of L2, let's consider three post-EIP-4844 scenarios to measure the impact on each L2 price.
1) Pessimistic scenario
2) Medium scene
3) Extreme scenario: DA = 0
1) If DA cost drops to 50%, the overall transaction fee will be reduced:
- Starknet: x1.8 (overall cost is 55% of current levels)
- Scroll: x1.5 (overall cost is 65% of current level)
- Zksync: x1.5 (overall cost is 67.5% of current levels)
- Arbitrum：N/A
2) If DA cost drops to 90%, the overall transaction fee will be reduced:
- Starknet: x5 (overall cost is 19% of current levels)
- Scroll: x2.7 (overall cost is 37% of current level)
- Zksync: x2.4 (overall cost 41.5% of current levels)
- Arbitrum：N/A
3) If the DA cost drops to 0, the overall transaction fee will be reduced:
- Starknet: x10 (overall cost is 10% of current level)
- Scroll: x3.3 (overall cost is 30% of current level)
- Zksync: x2.9 (overall cost is 35% of current levels)
- Arbitrum：N/A
Conclusion (1)
🏆 If Optimism’s predictions hold true, they will win the E-4844 fee war
They claim that the cost of Base, Zora, and Mode will be reduced by 70 times
This means that when DA drops to 0, OP Stack’s DA cost will account for 98.5% of transaction fees
Conclusion (2)
After Optimism, the other biggest gainers, in order, are:
- StarkNet
- Scroll
- Zksync
- Arbitrum：N/A
