Original| Liu Jiaolian
The good wind carries me to the blue clouds with its power.
Since the Bitcoin spot ETF was officially approved for listing by the U.S. SEC on January 10 at the beginning of the year (please refer to the 1.11 article on the teaching chain "BTC comes into the house, the SEC wants to reject it but welcomes it"), after BTC reached a high of 49k, it took more than half a month. The time went all the way back to 38.5k, and then it couldn't bear it and started to rise again. On February 8th, it closed up 5% and stood back above 45k. From then on, it skyrocketed non-stop from 45k to March 13th, one month later. On the same day, it received a record high of 72.6k, effectively breaking through and surpassing the previous high of 69k on November 10, 2021, sending a technical signal of a bull market.
Just as Jiaolian pointed out in the "2022 Year-End Review Outlook Report" in December 2022 that 16-17k was likely to be a cycle low; then, now, in March 2024, BTC has broken through the previous high and reached around 70k At this new historical height, Jiaolian has already pointed out in the internal reference of Jiaolian on March 14, "Research Says BTC Will Rise to 77k in Early April and Rise to 146,000 Dollars in 90 Days" that mid-term risks are rising. At that time, the internal reference said this:
"Currently, 73k is basically at the mid-track position. From here on up, the risk begins to increase. The higher it rises, the greater the risk.
"Deleveraging in a bear market can almost always lead to a drop of 70-80%, because this basically represents how large the leverage accumulated in the bull market is. Even if it rises to $350,000, a height that many people may not dare to think of, it will recover after a 70% correction. It has reached 100,000 dollars; an 80% correction will bring it back to 70,000 dollars, which is the range when the current bull market started. What if the top of the mountain is not as high as 350,000? Then the height after the correction will only be lower.
"Therefore, starting from $70,000 is a "confirmation signal" that the leeks who had previously withdrawn from the circle are coming back one after another, but it is also a watershed for the market to switch from low risk to high risk. The bear market is a good opportunity to build a position. Now it is a bull market, and many Those who enter at this time may not make much money after passing through this bull-bear cycle."
In the spirit of leniency when predicting the enemy, in the crypto market, the mathematical expectation of profit and loss for 5 times earnings is already equal to 0. This is still the lowest risk BTC.
If we still look at the old double-logarithmic price corridor, the upper track at the end of 2024 is 37.7 million dollars and the lower track is 35.5 million dollars. By the end of 2025, the upper track will be 51.2 million dollars, and the lower track will be 50,000 dollars. By the end of 2026, the upper track will have 68.3 million dollars, and the lower track will have 70,000 dollars. (See Jiaolian’s 2021.7.24 article “Bitcoin’s Price Corridor”)
Visible to the naked eye, there are several intuitive inferences:
1. We are expected to see 100,000+ BTC by the end of this year.
2. If this bull market can be "fully developed" (that is, hit the upper rail), then we may be lucky enough to see 300,000-500,000 BTC in the next 1-2 years.
3. If the "four-year cycle" is still valid, then the bear market at the end of 2026 will approach the downward trajectory of 7w. This is exactly the price range for BTC today.
Have a good idea:
30w -70% = 9w, 30w -80% = 6w;
35w -70% = 10w, 35w -80% = 7w;
40w -70% = 12w, 40w -80% = 8w;
45w -70% = 13w, 45w -80% = 9w;
50w -70% = 15w, 50w -80% = 10w.
Remember what Li Zongsheng sang in "The Hills": After crossing the hills, I found that no one was waiting. Before you can see immortality as you wish, you will lose yourself first.
I hope that friends who enter the site at this time will not get lost after crossing the hill. When you reach the other side of the hill, you will find the teaching chain already waiting.
4. If Laojiao wants to "escape from the top", he might as well divide the position into two parts: one is to add a position for less than 50,000 knives, which can be almost as motionless as a mountain; the other is to add a position for more than 70,000 knives, maybe it can go up. After crossing 10-15w, reduce positions in batches.
The consciousness of reducing your position must be not to take advantage of BTC, that is, to think that you can buy more at a cheaper price. To lighten your position, you will have to bear the risk of "flying". If you can't buy it back in the future, just don't regret it. Without this open-minded attitude, we will surely fail.
Do you think we can wait until 200,000 or more than 300,000 before starting to reduce the position? In fact, you can wait as long as you want. that is your freedom. As for whether you can wait, that depends on fate.
Understand probability. Abandon black and white thinking.
5. According to the "breathing theory (hypothesis)" proposed by Jiaolian (refer to Jiaolian's 2023.1.16 article "Bitcoin Price Forecast in 2023"), it returned to the water in May 2022 and exhaled until today. It seems that it has already Exhale all the air inhaled from 2021 to the first half of 2022. Bitcoin has now exhausted its entire lung capacity, and it urgently needs to get out of the water (middle track) to breathe in fresh air (funds). As the title of this article says, BTC may not have the basis for a long-term decline at this stage.
In fact, this statement by Jiao Lian was published as early as February 29 in Jiao Lian’s internal reference "Rush to the Top" and it is almost coming true. May I ask where is the way forward? "It has been said in ". The original words are as follows:
"If you look at it from the perspective of breathing theory, we are still just close to surfacing (yet), and the breath is almost exhaling all the breath in the 2021 bull market. If we don't inhale more breath above the middle track, it will directly collapse and plunge. What should I do if I can’t breathe out underwater? It doesn’t seem very reasonable.”
This comment was made when commenting on the statement made by a certain fund founder at that time that BTC would correct by 15% in March.
From the perspective of macro factors, that is, external factors, the expiration of the BTFP tool in March, the resurgence of U.S. inflation, and the Fed's interest rate meeting will not quickly turn to easing. These are not good news. In addition, BTC has indeed risen sharply in the past few months, which is daunting. At this moment, any macro analyst may tell you that BTC should undergo a correction of considerable magnitude and length.
However, if we operate from the perspective of endogenous contradictions, that is, from the perspective of internal factors, we are "drawing our swords and looking around at a loss", and we cannot see how BTC can directly plunge into this place.
Many people think that external factors must determine internal factors. However, the teacher's "On Contradiction" always clearly tells us that internal factors determine external factors. "So victory or defeat all depends on internal factors."
External factors can only exert their effects through internal factors. If internal factors do not allow it, no matter how external factors are imposed, it will be useless. Just like your child doesn't like to study, no matter how hard you force him, you can't force him to become a top student.
I think that the Federal Reserve, which is almost as powerful as a god, will never be able to defeat the teacher's ideas.
This does not mean that pin-type plunges and pulls cannot be made. The needle insertion time is extremely short and does not occupy breathing volume. Even if a -90% needle is inserted, its integral area is almost zero. In order to liquidate your position, anything is possible.
Theoretical derivation and academic discussion. Make bold assumptions and verify carefully. It is not intended as any investment basis or trading advice, please bear in mind.
(Public account: Liu Jiaolian. Knowledge Planet: The public account replies "Planet")
(Disclaimer: None of the content in this article constitutes any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is an extremely high-risk species and may return to zero at any time. Please participate with caution and be responsible for yourself.)
