Master’s hot topics:
After continuous net outflows last week, ETF institutions began to see net inflows this week. There was a net inflow of 231 coins on the 25th. Yesterday, the net inflow increased to 5,562 coins. The data gradually returned to normal.
The BTC spot ETF data in the past 24 hours is still positive inflows, and even the selling pressure on GBTC exceeded the previous trading day. However, the net inflow of ETFs still exceeded the previous trading day. The hero this time is still Fidelity. In the past 24 hours, Fidelity has increased its holdings of more than 4,000 BTC, and a total of nearly 7,700 BTC has been increased in the two days of the week. BTC.
Although this data is not Fidelity's best historical record, it is still quite good. In particular, Fidelity's net holdings exceeded BlackRock for two consecutive days. Currently, Fidelity's BTC holdings exceed 143,000, accounting for 17.31% of the overall ETF holdings. Although BlackRock's net holdings have been net holdings for two consecutive days. Lower than Fidelity, but the increase is still increasing.
The Federal Reserve also announced that it expected to cut interest rates three times this year, which appropriately eased market anxiety. Regarding this issue, I prefer to add one or two times to the three times. Only at that moment will the Federal Reserve lawmakers find that the market is still optimistically overvalued.
In addition, the SEC is still relentlessly suing Coinbase, but BlackRock co-founder and CEO Larry Fink said in an interview with Fox Business that even if the US Securities and Exchange Commission designates Ethereum as a security, its spot ETF is still possible If approved, this will increase regulatory scrutiny surrounding ETH, and an ETH ETF is expected to continue until it is approved.
The number of Bitcoin options delivered this Friday will be unusually large, reaching $15 billion. In the past, it was only two to three billion. This may be the reason why some big whales choose to avoid risks at this time and the fluctuations in the past two days. After all, the delivery of the largest options in the world will bring about a huge amount of margin release, and this kind of risk is generally taken seriously by institutions.
Then the exchange rate of ETH against BTC still did not rebound, but there is a good thing about ETH, that is, the CFTC reiterated in the lawsuit against kucoin that Ethereum, Bitcoin, and Litecoin are commodities. This is the identity attribute that ETH needs at present, and for the future Whether the ETF can pass is crucial.
Master looks at the trend:
BTC: Yesterday it hit the small resistance level of 72,000 and the first-line pin stepped back to the support of 68,000. At the same level, it is still looking at the support level near 68,000. If it does not fall below 68,000 today, then the top can focus on the short-term resistance of 72,000.
The current focus is around the previous high of 74,000 points, and the effective support is at 66,000. Although this position will not be broken, considering that the current price is too high, this position must be avoided once the pin is inserted.
ETH: Currently it is also at the support position in the 3460-3500 range, and the short-term support level is still in this range. The key point to pay attention to above remains unchanged, still at 3800. In the past two days, it has also hit the 3600-3800 range many times, forming a resistance level near 3680 on the short-term level.
You can just pay attention to this position as the current short-term resistance level. For the support position below, pay attention to the range near 3400.
Master’s hot topics:
The ETF experienced capital outflows throughout the week, and finally switched to inflow status in the past two days. Grayscale GBTC continued to sell like crazy, with outflows reaching US$350 million. Since the adoption of spot ETFs, Grayscale has seen a steady number of hits. It is not an exaggeration to say that it is the biggest enemy of the current market.
Fortunately, Fidelity FBTC performed relatively well, with a single-day inflow of 260 million, which offset more than half of Grayscale's selling pressure. Other BlackRock performed mediocrely, with an inflow of 35 million, $BITB $BICO $EZBC $BRR $ hodl has inflows of 14 million, 18.5 million, 20.5 million, 11.2 million and 4 million respectively.
All these combined brought the total net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF to US$15.4 million. Although the inflow was not much, it finally stopped the previous five consecutive days of capital outflows. The market's reaction was also quite impressive, with the market breaking through to 7w1.
It seems to remind investors that as long as the ETF has incremental funds, pulling the trigger is a piece of cake. Of course, this also confirms what I said in the article before. The emergence of spot ETFs has completely transferred the pricing power of cryptocurrency to the OTC and Wall Street. Looking at this situation, as long as the inflow of ETF funds can be maintained this week, the probability of new highs in the later period of the market will be It's quite big.
In addition, this week’s focus will be on Thursday’s GDP and Friday’s PCE inflation data, both of which reflect the economy and the necessity and urgency of interest rate cuts. One is the inflation data that the Fed is most concerned about. The current core PCE has dropped to 2.8%. Whether it can continue to drop closer to the target inflation of 2% is the basis for making a decision to cut interest rates.
However, recently many veteran US officials have continued to suppress expectations of interest rate cuts. This year, the chairman of the voting committee of the Atlanta Fed has reduced the number of expected interest rate cuts this year from three to one. Of course, CME's forecast data has not changed much. The probability of a rate cut in May is very small, only about 8%, and the probability of a rate cut in June is 70%.
Master looks at the trend:
BTC: The market is currently experiencing small fluctuations, and the upper resistance of 72,000 has not yet risen. At present, the 70,000 mark has not yet been completely established, but it is firmly establishing this position. Therefore, it is still necessary to prevent the short-term support pin point from the 68000-69000 range, and the resistance area above the short-term level to focus on the 72000-74000 range. At present, we can only wait for the 70,000 mark to be firmly established in the past two days before the market can break through and surge upward.
ETH:
ETH's overall four-hour level yesterday followed the BTC, but the same level of 3600 has not yet gained a firm footing. It is still on the first line near 3600. The point that we need to pay attention to is 3800, which needs to break through and stand firm to open up the space above. The current short-term support point is in the range of 3460-3500, and the resistance level above the short-term is still focused on the 3800 line.
3.28 Shiye short-term prepaid order
The BTC short-term prepaid orders given in the article yesterday were empty at around 70,600 to 71,000, and it was around 5 pm yesterday. The lowest market price has also fallen below 69500, and the target position of the short order is 70000 to 69500 to successfully take profit; while the short order of ETH is placed around 3640 to 3680, the highest pin placement in the evening market is also around 3672, and the short order The first target 3570 and the second target 3540 were also reached perfectly.
BTC operation suggestions:
Multiple targets near 68800-69200 70000-70300
ETH operation suggestions:
Multiple targets near 3420-3460 3560-3600
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