[Weekly briefing for the 1st week of April] What are the ‘Big 3’ coin events worth paying attention to this month?

Last week was also a week dominated by the net inflow of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. market. Even though there was no significant positive news, the price of Bitcoin rose 10.13% for the week as net inflow of funds continued for four consecutive days from the 25th (local time).

It is not just the net inflow numbers that have turned positive. First of all, the net inflow of the BlackRock spot ETF (IBIT), which had raised concerns, has recovered again. Since its listing, IBIT has been the most active in purchasing Bitcoin and is serving as the 'leading stock' among the 11 US spot ETFs.

There was a lot of concern in the market when IBIT recorded a record-low net purchase of $18.9 million on the 22nd. IBIT currently holds over 200,000 Bitcoins and, excluding Grayscale's GBTC, has the largest Bitcoin holdings among all ETFs. If there is a net outflow from IBIT, the price of Bitcoin could very easily return to the level before the rise.

Fortunately, IBIT's net inflow recovered in earnest from the 26th and exceeded the average level on the 27th. In addition to IBIT, Fidelity Spot ETF (FBTC) and ArkInvest Spot ETF (ARKB) also significantly increased Bitcoin net inflow last week, each seeming to set a certain date.

When the price of Bitcoin, which had fallen below $70,000, exceeded $70,000 again, many in the market believe that the correction is over. CryptoQuant, a crypto on-chain data analysis company, predicted that Bitcoin would again attempt to break the $73,000 level, near its previous high. 10xResearch, a crypto analysis company, predicted that the price of Bitcoin could once again significantly reach its previous high and rise to $83,000.

Meanwhile, as the Bitcoin spot ETF has achieved great success in the United States, other countries are also looking at this market again. The London Stock Exchange (LSE) in the UK plans to begin trading exchange-traded bonds (ETN) for cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum from May 28. According to local media in Hong Kong, the Hong Kong financial authorities are also reportedly preparing to approve a Bitcoin spot ETF that can be traded in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin halving on April 19th... this time is different

March has already passed by with unprecedented volatility. Several major events are scheduled in April, including the Bitcoin halving scheduled for the 19th.

First of all, the Bitcoin halving, which is the most talked about event, has made it difficult to predict its impact due to the launch of the spot ETF. In principle, about 900 Bitcoins are currently mined per day, which are usually used to cover mining costs for miners. This means that many of the 900 are acting as selling pressure in the market.

After half-life, this amount will be reduced to 450. So, strictly speaking, the halving effect is a decrease of 450 bitcoins thrown into the market per day. Considering that over 200,000 Bitcoins have been purchased from IBIT over the past three months, it is difficult to see it as a factor that will control the market.

Looking at the three cases that have occurred so far, Bitcoin's price tends to rise after experiencing a temporary decline before and after the halving. But this time, the formula likely won't work out. This is because the price has already risen far above the mining unit price, and with the launch of the spot ETF, the possibility of the Bitcoin blockchain not functioning has been significantly reduced compared to the past.

The second is April 23, when the main trial between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Ripple resumes. Ripple experienced its first victory in a summary judgment in July of last year, and the formal trial will resume from the 23rd. The key issue is whether the purpose of the summary judgment that Ripple tokens (XRP) sold to institutional investors are securities, but those traded by ordinary investors through exchanges are not securities will be maintained.

It is difficult to view this trial as simply a battle between Ripple and the SEC. This is because the SEC considers almost all coins except Bitcoin to be securities. If Ripple wins this trial, other altcoins will also have some breathing room.

Lastly, the third will be April 11th, which will be the third month since the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF. Independent investment advisors in the U.S. often need to secure three months of transaction data to purchase newly issued ETFs. They will be able to purchase Bitcoin spot ETFs starting April 11th.

If the price rises once more due to purchases by independent investment advisors that came in late, there is a strong possibility that professional investors' investment views on Bitcoin will change. Currently, the appropriate percentage of Bitcoin in portfolio investment is around 1%. However, Matt Hogan, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Bitwise, a crypto asset management company, said that most traditional financial investors he met recently at a crypto conference in the UK were talking about a proportion of 3% or more . This means that three times as much money as previously expected could flow into the cryptocurrency industry.

Along with these events, it is also necessary to take a close look at the macroeconomic indicators that come every month. This is because the US Federal Reserve's statement, which predicted three interest rate cuts within the year at the Open Market Committee (FOMC) last month, has been changing frequently recently. In a public speech on March 30, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that if the U.S. economy continues to grow robustly and the job market remains strong, interest rates will be maintained at the current level for a long time.

In relation to this, a series of job market-related indicators will be announced this week. On Thursday the 4th, new U.S. unemployment claims will be announced, and on Friday the 5th, the non-agricultural employment index will be released. If both show strong employment, it will become increasingly difficult for the United States to cut interest rates for the first time in June.