Written by: Mike, Foresight Ventures
A. Market View
1. Macro Liquidity
The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates at a high level in more than 20 years since July last year. Last week, it unexpectedly maintained its expectation of three interest rate cuts this year. Chairman Powell's dovish tone at the press conference has led investors to bet that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time this year. Comes in June. U.S. stocks fluctuated at high levels, and the crypto market stagnated.
2. Whole market conditions
Top 100 market capitalization gainers:
BTC rebounded weakly this week, and the market is speculating on sub-new stocks with good chip structure, which may be a sign that the market will adjust. Market hot spots revolve around RWA, new public chain Base, TON, and SUI.
1. POLYX: BlackRock Fund announced its entry into the RWA track, triggering hype about the concept. POLYX is a securitization public chain based on the RWA concept, built on Substrate, and participants need to do KYC. However, the business faces great regulatory resistance, and it is difficult to unify the national conditions of various countries under the same public chain regulatory system, which may make it difficult to enjoy the global liquidity advantages similar to Defi.
2. DEGEN: It is the Meme coin on Farcaster. It was initially airdropped to Farcaster's Degen community and will continue to be airdropped to Base and other participants in the Farcaster ecosystem in the future. Currently it is mainly used for social payments on the Base chain. Since the Base chain does not issue coins due to US compliance issues, its ecosystem will receive more capital overflows.
3. SUI: Public chain SUI surged to a new high, and ecological NAVX, CETUS, etc. followed suit. SUI held a conference on April 10, and has recently provided subsidies to stimulate the ecosystem. SUI is the new public chain with the best user experience in this round.
3. BTC market
1) Data on the chain
Long-term holders stepped up their efforts to take profits. When the market encountered resistance near the previous high, some investors began to take profits and exit. 40% of the chip sales came from long-term holders, similar to the situation in December 2020.
The market value of stablecoins increased by 1.6%. The stablecoin Ethena airdrops tokens, and its stablecoin USDe currently has a scale of US$1.4 billion, ranking 5th.
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is greater than 6, it is the top range; when the indicator is less than 2, it is the bottom range. MVRV fell below the key level 1 and holders were in the red overall. The current indicator is 3.2, entering the intermediate stage.
Institutional funds began to experience a substantial net outflow of US$900 million, mainly due to a significant decrease in funds flowing into US spot ETFs.
2) Futures market
Futures funding rates: Rates increased slightly this week. The fee rate is 0.05-0.1%, and the long leverage is high, which is the short-term top of the market; the fee rate is -0.1-0%, the short leverage is high, and it is the short-term bottom of the market.
Futures positions: BTC positions rebounded slightly this week.
Futures long-short ratio: 1.3, market sentiment is normal. Retail investor sentiment is mostly a contrarian indicator, with a reading below 0.7 indicating panic and a reading above 2.0 indicating greed. The long-short ratio data fluctuates greatly, and the reference significance is weakened.
3) Spot market price
As BTC encounters resistance at a new high of 73,000, long-term holders have increased their efforts to take profits, and funds may flow from BTC to Altcoin. Historically, after BTC hits new highs, Altcoin will follow suit and hit new highs in the next 2 months. It is recommended to pay attention to new public chain opportunities Base, TON, and SUI.
B. Market data
1. The total lock-up amount of the public chain
2. TVL proportion of each public chain
The total TVL this week was 98.3 billion US dollars, an overall increase of 3.8 billion US dollars, an increase of about 4%. BTC rebounded to 71,000 after a correction this week and is still looking for and forming a higher support level. This week, TVL of mainstream public chains all rose except for the ETH chain. At present, the performance of the ETH chain in this cycle is relatively weak, with a decline of nearly 2% in the past week. The TRON chain, BSC chain and ARB chain all rose by about 3%, and the SOLANA chain, OP chain and BTC chain rose by about 6%. The POLYGON chain rose by nearly 8%, and the SUI chain rose by 13%. The most noteworthy are the BLAST chain and BASE chain, which surged by 25% and 41% respectively. The BASE chain has risen by 161% in the past month, which has also made the total TVL of the BASE chain exceed 1 billion, successfully surpassing the OP chain and POLYGON and ranking eighth. On the other side, the BLAST chain TVL has reached 1.27 billion and ranks sixth.
3. Lock-up volume of each chain protocol
1) ETH lock-up amount
2) BSC lock-up amount
3) Polygon lock-up amount
4) Arbitrum lock-up amount
5) Optimism lock-up amount
6) Base lock-up amount
7) Solana’s locked position status
4. Changes in NFT market data
1) NFT-500 Index
2) NFT market situation
3) NFT trading market share
4) NFT buyer analysis
This week, the floor prices of blue-chip projects in the NFT market have risen and fallen, and the market has continued to fall after a slight rise. BAYC fell 6%, CryptoPunks fell 7%, Milady fell 3%, and The Captainz fell 5%. Pandora had the best performance among blue-chip projects this week, rising 22%. In addition, Azuki also rose 14% and Pudgy Penguins rose 3%. The overall NFT transaction volume has rebounded slightly, but the number of first-time NFT users and repeat buyers continues to decline. The NFT market doesn’t show any signs of recovery yet.
5. Latest financing situation of the project
6. Post-investment dynamics
1) Space Nation — Gamefi
On April 1st, select players will have the opportunity to try Space Nation Online during a closed beta to test the functionality of the game and servers. The game will be publicly released in early access this summer, with a full release slated for PC and mobile platforms before the end of 2024. Versions of the game will remain consistent across platforms, and Space Nation Online will offer a free trial without a subscription.
2) bitSmiley — BTC Defi
bitSmiley announced the launch of the Bitcoin native stablecoin AMM "bitCow". bitSmiley said that bitCow eliminates free losses in the transaction process through mechanisms such as dual LP tokens and simplifies the user's asset management process. According to the official roadmap, the upcoming V1 version will focus on launching transaction functions that support Bitcoin’s native stablecoins. The V2 version will focus on implementing a more advanced automated centralized liquidity AMM solution to improve the capital utilization efficiency of Bitcoin’s native assets.
3) Polyhedra — ZK
Polyhedra Network announced that it has reached a cooperation with Renzo to provide its Bitcoin interoperability protocol with $1.8 billion in crypto-economic security by integrating Renzo’s liquidity re-staking token LRT and ZK token’s dual pledge mechanism to achieve minimum trust. ized Bitcoin interoperability.
Polyhedra stated that in the future, pledgers of Polyhedra Network’s native token ZK will receive benefits from cross-chain messages in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
