Hot topics of Master Chat:
In the past 24 hours, the data of Bitcoin spot ETF is likely to be the best data this week. After all, the ETF data every Friday before was lower. As of last night, there was no sign of large-scale transfer of Bitcoin in the exchange. There were only three transfers of more than 2,000 BTC, and no signs of consumption were found.
In fact, the current market situation is not a game of emotions, nor a game of information, but a game between selling and buying Bitcoin. What I understand is that if you sell 100 BTC, but only buy 10, the price will fall. If you sell 1 million BTC, but buy 2 million, the price will rise.
Let's go back to the data itself. BlackRock + Fidelity achieved the highest value of the week in ETF net inflows on Thursday. Although neither of them was the highest in the week, the combined data is still good, which also shows that investor sentiment has also improved with the changes in BTC prices.
Therefore, whether user sentiment has been truly improved still depends on the ETF data next Monday. The ETF itself will also be affected by the price of Bitcoin, and it is likely to remain volatile over the weekend.
In addition, except for the adjustment of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics last night, the employment data is bad data regardless of whether it is good or bad. It is just that it is very bad now or it will be very bad in the future.
At first glance, the current non-farm data looks good. The unemployment rate has dropped to 3.8%, which is still at a historically low level. Non-farm employment continues to rise, and the US economy is booming. These are very good data, but this "good data" has turned into "bad data" that allows the Federal Reserve to continue waiting for inflation.
Defensive rate cuts and high interest rates are really harmful, and why risk markets want rate cuts. So when the data tends to show that the Fed is not considering rate cuts for the time being, the market will not be happy. At present, the market has already anticipated that the Fed may cut interest rates three times in 2024, including that there will be no rate cut in June.
But even if it is expected, there will be no reaction. The US non-farm data has been revised again, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has been suppressed again. It really does not come true that the only thing that can make the Fed cut interest rates is an economic recession.
Master looks at the trend:
BTC: The market broke through 68,000 yesterday and then retreated. In the past two days of range-bound fluctuations, many people are confused about the direction. This is a normal phenomenon. A surge will still occur when the halving is approaching. The key lies in whether it can stand firm after the surge. This is the key.
If the current upward space is to be opened, it must stand strongly above 68500 to continue to rise above 70000. The daily short-term pressure levels can be paid attention to at 69000 and 69680, and the support levels can be paid attention to at 65380 and 66000.
ETH: ETH can focus on the pressure levels of 3400 and 3455. The support levels are 3210 and 3125.
4.6 Master's short-term pre-buried order:
BTC:
Short order reference: 68500, 69300
Defense: 69500
Target 66500-65500
Long order reference: 66500, 65800
Defense: 65300
Target: 67500, 68000
ETH:
Short order reference: 3355, 3400
Defense: 3420
Target: 3270, 3220
Long order reference: 3270, 3230
Defense: 3200
First target 3330, 3350
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