There are still 13 days until the BTC halving will be realized. Regarding the topic of what will happen after the BTC halving, here are my personal thoughts:
The explosion of non-farm payrolls data a few days ago has made the entire Federal Reserve hawkish again. The most serious statement is that as long as inflation and economic heat continue, the lighthouse country may not cut interest rates this year. The radicals have even started to talk about raising interest rates again .
However, I personally think that the rate hike will not be able to continue, but the probability of a delayed rate cut has indeed increased. If inflation continues to rebound and the economy remains strong, there is a possibility that there will be no rate cut this year. The expectation that the Fed will hold up high interest rates and not cut interest rates this year will most likely hinder the subsequent upward momentum of the BTC.
The halving of BTC is about to be realized. After the realization of the benefits, there is no continuous operation hotspot and new momentum. There is no macro environment of interest rate cuts and water release. I personally can't find the capital momentum for BTC to rush up 100,000 U in the future. Therefore, I think the best result for BTC at this position is to go sideways. If there is no sharp drop, it will be the strongest trend.
Bitcoin hit a new all-time high before the halving this time, and the driving force behind it was the Bitcoin spot ETF
The approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF this year is the main reason for the sharp rise in Bitcoin, which fundamentally changed the fundamentals of Bitcoin. This is a major positive factor that has never been seen in previous halvings.
Additionally, the amount of Bitcoin available for transactions (i.e., the difference between circulating supply and illiquid supply) has been declining since the beginning of 2020, a significant shift from previous cycles.
Typically, the lack of supply liquidity is caused by lost wallets and forgotten keys, but Coinbase analysts also mentioned that "the level of available Bitcoin supply has been trending downward over the past four years," which is different from previous halving cycles.
But this is not necessarily a bad thing for Bitcoin, as it could mean that investors have long-term positions and are less willing to sell Bitcoin in the event of short-term price changes.
What should I buy in the mid-term bull market? How much money-making opportunities are there in this bull market?
This question is one of the most common questions fans send me in private messages.
The first category is people who know very clearly what they should buy. These people actually account for a small proportion, and they are basically old investors who have experienced at least 1-2 rounds of bull-bear transitions. For me, what I do in investment is actually very simple, that is, I insist on DCA (constant investment) in the bear market.
The first category is people who have been trying to find the answer. For example, in one round, these people may buy dozens of coins, or at least a dozen. They are usually either chasing hot spots or changing positions.
This kind of question is not easy to answer. For example, I have been telling you to buy BTC, but more than two years have passed and you still don’t buy it. Then I have been suggesting that you focus on AI, RWA, GameFi and other sectors, but more than a year has passed and you still don’t understand what RWA is. Then, you are now leaving messages asking: What should I buy?
...seems to be stuck in an infinite loop.
And then again, the answer to this question may be different in different periods. For example, if you ask me in 2022, I will firmly let you and I hoard BTC together. If you ask me in 2023, I will suggest you pay more attention to AI, RWA, GameFi, DEPIN and other sectors. If you ask me now (roughly in the middle of the bull market), then:
As for those who are still short and don’t know what to buy at this stage, my personal suggestion is that you can buy a few top projects in the track that you are most optimistic about. If you don’t even have a track that you are optimistic about (or don’t know), then you can just take advantage of the pullback to buy some BTC and Ethereum. At the same time, lower your expectations for the returns of this round of bull market, and don’t be blinded by those small coins that can easily increase by dozens of times. Then observe and experience the changes in this round of bull market, and wait patiently for the next round of bear market to start investing in your most optimistic projects.
If you are fully invested now, but you didn’t store any BTC or Ethereum before, it mainly depends on your vision and luck in choosing projects. You may make money (or get your money back) if you catch the bull/copycat season. If you are also good at thinking and summarizing, then even if you don’t make much profit in this round, your experience and experience may make you one of the first old investors to turn over in the next bull market.
Create a high-quality circle
Spot mainly
I will share some content: as shown below:
The overall position is ≥ 5,000u. If you want to join, scan the QR code below!
(A few hundred or a few thousand is too small to operate. If you don’t have it, you can also send a private message. You can also join after passing the screening.) Purpose: To become bigger and stronger, to create glory again and turn around in the next bull market!
This is the end of the article. I will do a more detailed analysis in the communication group. If you want to join my circle, please contact me directly through the WeChat below!
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