First, last night's CPI data was higher than expected, but Wall Street's financial elites questioned whether the US CPI data was a "false positive". The market was affected by this and first plunged downward and then rebounded. Bitcoin fell to $67,518 at its lowest, but quickly rebounded in the morning and broke through $71,000.
Let's take a look at the changes in ETF data: As of yesterday, on April 10, 9 Bitcoin spot ETFs (including Grayscale) had a net reduction of 2,714 BTC, with a net outflow of approximately US$187.7 million. Among them, Grayscale reduced its holdings by 4,245 BTC, with a net outflow of approximately US$293.6 million. It currently holds 318,452 BTC, equivalent to approximately US$22 billion.
BlackRock increased its holdings by 1,868 BTC, with a net inflow of approximately $129.2 million, and currently holds 266,102 BTC, equivalent to approximately $18.4 billion. BITB had a net inflow of $24 million, especially the spot Bitcoin ETF ARKB, which had a net inflow of $7 million yesterday.
In addition, I think the current market can be described in one word: chaos. This is because the Federal Reserve intervenes in the market too much, raising interest rates and shrinking the balance sheet on the one hand, and using various tools to release and loosen the currency on the other hand.
Since the market is in chaos, the relatively stable asset is gold, and the same goes for Bitcoin. However, it has risen significantly in the past six months. It is normal to adjust when the purchasing power of ETF funds weakens.
Therefore, the first half of the second cycle is likely to be coming to an end. The second half is likely to be driven by the Fed's massive money printing and restarting of the money printing press. Only with the demand for excessive money issuance can the market continue to rise.
Summary of recent funding data:
1. Stablecoins continue to be issued, with an additional issuance of 2.3 billion US dollars in the past 10 days. However, the total market value is still 20 billion US dollars away from the last bull market.
2. The net inflow of BTC ETF has slowed down significantly. After April, the daily net inflow was around 200 million US dollars, compared with an average net inflow of 600 million US dollars in March.
The ETF fund situation of BTC has obviously cooled down since April compared with February and March. There have been two net outflows since April. Even during the period of net inflow, the daily net inflow was only 200 million US dollars. In comparison, the daily net inflow in March was around 600 million US dollars, which is a significant cooling.
To summarize the logic behind not getting out of the car in the past two days:
1. Since the first decent adjustment on March 15, the market's lows have been continuously raised, which shows that the technical side of the bull market trend has not deteriorated.
2. Fundamentally, the main logic of this bull market is the BTC halving. Before the halving is realized, the narrative fundamentals remain unchanged, and the negative impact of the US CPI and interest rate hikes is only temporary.
3. Technically, the market has been smashing, pulling up, and smashing for several times, and the price has reached the EQL position. The fact that it has not hit a new low is very telling. It also proves that my view is correct.
4. Let’s talk about the mentality. Since it is a bull market, as long as we are sure that the bull market has not ended (the possibility of this is 99.9%), there are only two situations: pull-up and wash-out.
For spot traders, it is very simple, just hold or buy high and sell low to do T. Contracts require strict fund management. As long as you do not go against the general trend and ensure survival (position management), the mentality of resisting orders is still very stable.
Will the Ethereum ETF be approved in May?
I think it is more difficult to judge this than whether the Fed will cut interest rates, because there is no clear and public policy and standard, so the US regulatory authorities have a lot of room for maneuver. Since there is a lot of room for maneuver, it will inevitably involve the game and compromise of many interests. The biggest game force here is probably the consortium and regulatory authorities on Wall Street.
In the long run, I believe this ETF will pass, because the consortiums have seen and reaped huge dividends from the Bitcoin ETF, and it is impossible for them to ignore the second largest asset, Ethereum.
For example, BlackRock’s various public actions and calls regarding the Ethereum ETF are the most obvious signs.
For example: From a normal logic, if the Ethereum ETF is approved, there is no reason to block the other series of POS blockchain ETFs; but now the Bitcoin ETF has only been approved for a short time, and so many ETFs have been approved one after another, and the supervision will be questioned again...
Can Hong Kong move faster and take bigger steps in this regard?
In a series of Web 3 events held in Hong Kong recently, Cathie Wood publicly expressed her praise for Hong Kong's regulation of the crypto ecosystem. I agree with her evaluation. If Hong Kong can take the lead in Ethereum ETF, it will play a very good role in promoting it and also find new impetus and vitality for Hong Kong's economy.
These actions are objectively accumulating water for the upcoming bull market.
Bitcoin experienced a brief panic sell-off last night due to data such as CPI, but it immediately rebounded. The current price is still stable above $70,000. The current trend is a high-level volatile market, and it remains to be seen when it will continue to break through.
I said yesterday that the way of playing this year is different from previous years because with the participation of mainstream Wall Street institutions, every time Bitcoin falls, there will be strong follow-up orders, so don’t be afraid of a deep drop, every drop is the best time to buy.
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