Early on the morning of April 14, Iran officially launched a retaliatory attack against Israel with drones and long-range missiles. This is Iran's response to the Israeli airstrike targeting the Iranian consulate in Syria in early April. From here, the keywords "World War 3" and "black swan" are constantly being used by the community. emphasize.
Past experience of how markets react to political black swan events
The observation from @intocryptoverse is notable when trying to compare the impact of this event with the period when the Russia-Ukraine conflict officially began in early 2022.
This similarity lies in the price structure and the importance of the political event that prompted the escalation of the war. At that time, Bitcoin broke the support trendline and dropped another 50% to create a Dip to recover. If the conflict between Iran and Israel also escalates and the market reacts similarly, the Bitcoin price could Chia in half from the current price and return to the sideway area of 32,000 USD like the first half of 2023.
However, the above observation leaves out many other negative events such as the collapse of Terra and the FTX exchange. It is at least worth a reference to how Bitcoin reacts to negative political news related to war.
The Iran-Israel conflict is XEM by the community to be a new "black swan" for the Crypto market
Observing the community, we can see different sentiments as follows:
- Some believe that this conflict is the trigger for World War 3, the keyword WWIII became trending on social network X. And this event, if it happens, will be a big test for the value of Bitcoin. : Evidence that many people's belief in BTC 's ability to store value during political unrest is real or imagined.
- Many opinions expect that this event will open up opportunities to buy Bitcoin at better prices than before. Temporary panic because the majority is not alert enough to assess the situation will help "Bitcoin maximization" investors seize the opportunity.
- Some other opinions believe that the impact of the Iran-Israel conflict could affect Bitcoin price behavior in the same way as the Covid black swan event that caused the decline in March 2020.
Above are opinions from community discussions, KOLs and Crypto market experts are still cautious in assessing the situation and making predictions.
In the immediate future, the impact of the Iran-Israel conflict is extremely negative for new investors in the Crypto market
In the immediate future, the new generation of investors entering the Crypto market in 2024 is the subject of heavy losses after this event:
- Most Altcoins have dropped in price very strongly, on Medium down more than 30% in the last two days. Many Altcoins fell back inside the long-term accumulation zone, causing the portfolios of many new investors to almost Chia in half.
- The liquidation amount was a record high for two consecutive days, totaling more than 1.6 billion USD liquidated, according to Coinglass. This leaves traders with no money left to continue creating new purchasing power.
- Trends in the market such as memecoin, launchpool project, newly listed projects, etc. also dropped very sharply, causing the optimistic expectations at the beginning of the week to disappear by the end of the week.
