Original | Odaily Odaily
Author | Azuma
There are only a few days left until the fourth halving of Bitcoin, but the predictions of the top "order-leading gods" about the future market show completely different directions.
The bulls generally believe that the darkest moment has passed; the CPI exceeding expectations and the suspension of interest rate cuts cannot interrupt the upward trend of Bitcoin; the main reason for the adjustment in the past few days is that liquidity was temporarily withdrawn due to the arrival of tax filing day; while the bears believe that unexpected and persistent inflation has put risky assets on the verge of a major adjustment...
In the following article, we will review the top players on both the bull and bear sides and their main remarks, hoping to help everyone make correct operations in the future market.
The four bulls: GCR, Arthur Hayes, Chris Burniske, Matt Hougan
GCR: Hold on to the spot, don’t surrender!
After the sharp drop in the early morning of April 14, the legendary trader GCR (who once short DOGE, SHIBA, and LUNA at the top), who had not posted any trading comments on social media for a long time, publicly called for more. This dynamic has now been read nearly 9 million times on X, and the number of likes has reached 55,000 times.
GCR said: "If you are under-positioned, this will be a good opportunity for you to expand your position in the token with strong consensus. If you are already cross margin, then hold on, stick to your spot position, and don't surrender. Someone once said that the essence of liquidation is the forced transfer of wealth from traders who need leverage to wealthy spot holders. I have retired from social media, but I don't want to see my brothers being eliminated when the future is still so bright."
Arthur Hayes: The bottom has been reached, let’s push forward!
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has long been one of the most influential "order-carrying masters" in the market. Earlier this month, Arthur predicted that the annual US tax return (April 15 is the tax deadline) will drain market liquidity from April 15 to May 1, coupled with the Fed's continued balance sheet reduction and Bitcoin's expected halving event on April 20, which may lead to short-term oversold, the market may be extremely weak. However, since May 1, as the Fed slows down the pace of balance sheet reduction and the US Treasury uses funds to stimulate the market, a new round of crypto bull market is expected to begin.
And with the sharp decline in the next few days, Arthur also changed his target and started to call for more.
On April 15, Arthur posted on the X platform: " The bottom has been reached, let's go! "
On April 16, Arthur said again: " Until the weekend before the US tax filing deadline on April 15, Bitcoin and gold kept moving in sync. Also on this weekend, the situation in Israel and Iran escalated, and the price of Bitcoin plummeted, while gold happened to be closed. On Monday this week, gold did not fluctuate after opening, and Bitcoin fell again. The general trend of Bitcoin still works, people just need to pay taxes. "
Chris Burniske: How dare you liquidate before the halving? ? ?
Chris Burniske, former head of crypto at ARK Invest and current partner at Placeholder VC, had previously accurately predicted that the market would experience a significant correction after the ETF was approved.
After this round of decline, Burniske has also spoken out for bullishness many times.
Burniske wrote this morning: " There is significant panic in the market, but prices have stabilized in a reasonable range and excessive volatility has been eliminated, which will be the basis for the eventual rise in prices. "
Afterwards, Burniske also retweeted a post about "You actually liquidated your positions 4 days before the halving", and attached a picture of a whale swallowing, which may imply that the whale are eating up the chips sold by retail investors in panic at low prices.
Matt Hougan: Interest rates are nothing to worry about!
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan (on the left in the picture below) has always been a representative of Bitcoin "die-hard bulls" active in the social media field.
When Bitcoin fell last week due to unexpected CPI and delayed interest rate cut expectations, Hougan said, "I don't think that higher-than-expected CPI will interrupt Bitcoin's upward trend. Whether the Fed cuts interest rates in June is not a long-term driver of Bitcoin prices, but only a marginal factor. The flow of ETFs and the growing deficit problem are more important, and these data are good for Bitcoin. "
The short-selling player: 10x Research
Compared with the long side, there are relatively few well-known players in the short side. Originally, Arthur, who was bearish in April, would be the best representative, but as Arthur turned bullish, the short side urgently needs a new banner.
This morning, 10x Research, a well-known institution that was still shill of 80,000 last week, suddenly announced that "all positions had been cleared last night." This development also sparked widespread discussion on social media.
In explaining the logic of liquidation, 10x Research said the main reasons were:
1. We are increasingly concerned that risk assets (stocks and cryptocurrencies) are at a critical point and could see a significant price correction. The main trigger is unexpected and persistent inflation. With current bond market forecasts pointing to less than three rate cuts and 10-year Treasury yields exceeding 4.50%, we may have reached an important turning point for risk assets.
2. It must be understood that trading is an ongoing game full of opportunities. The key to trading is to continuously analyze the market and find opportunities when the time is right . Sometimes we advocate strategies that increase risk (to gain more), while at other times, preserving capital is the top priority, which allows you to seize opportunities when the risk level is lower.
3. … (The 10x Research report does have a third point, but the minimum membership fee required to read the report is $340 a year. I chose to use this $340 to buy the dips.)
risk warning
Finally, it should be emphasized that the above content is only a summary of the market forecasts of some KOLs that are currently receiving high attention in the market. The forecasts and reasons of the major KOLs in the article are their personal opinions and do not represent the opinions of Odaily Odaily.
The investment risk is extremely high. Please do not trust other people's shill easily. Be sure to DYOR before making any operations.
