The Runes protocol has finally been launched, bringing a "million runes" scene to the Bitcoin ecosystem. Runes of various concepts have begun to be minted, which has also pushed the Bitcoin network fee to an extremely high level, with a transaction fee of up to hundreds of dollars. This has also been ridiculed by the community, "I just withdrew 1000u to prepare for runes, how come 48u has arrived? Can anyone help me take a look?"
1000 U of Bitcoin, after a transfer, 950 U of handling fee was deducted, leaving more than 40 U of principal. How can I play this game?
Regardless of whether Rune players make money, miners are making a fortune anyway. On-chain data shows that Runes minters have paid 78.6 BTC (about $4.95 million) in fees about 9 blocks after the Bitcoin halving. Take F2Pool and Antpool as examples. They have produced 3 consecutive blocks and received about 69 BTC (about $4.4 million) and 80 BTC (about $5.12 million) in rewards respectively. And this is just the beginning. It is expected that Bitcoin network fees may remain high in the next few days.
After talking about the transaction fee, let's talk about the Rune craze itself. Rune has been open for several hours. Has anyone made money? Can Rune really bring a craze like Meme? Does Rune have a future? Let's see what the community says.
Bitfool @bitfool1 :
On the Wealth Effect of Being the First to Complete the Runes
The first rune MEME•ECONOMICS has been completed. The estimated casting cost is 200 per piece. Currently, one piece is sold for 400. There is almost no liquidity and it cannot be sold. As soon as it was made, people were welded to the car.
Summary of wealth effect: The wealth effect of the hot rune at this time is not as good as that of a random wild brc20 in April last year.
Reason: Too many people believe that the bigger the wind and waves, the more expensive the fish. Now the water is full of fishing boats.
Cabbage @Ca1aba93 :
Runes has no technical highlights.
Casey lacks basic respect for BRC20, which brought Ordinals to the sky, and its creator Domo. I personally think that his ability is indeed first-class, but what blockchain needs more is financial narrative. He obviously hates shitcoins, or these shitcoins have stolen the limelight from Ordinals, which makes him very unhappy.
He borrowed the idea of utxo-base protocol from atomics to create runes, but why not go further? Runes just got rid of the ordinarys layer, its index is still centralized, it is unlikely to support bitvm in the future, and it can only implement sc with centralized index in the future. The application scope of runes is greatly limited because of its implementation method. I think Casey wasted a great opportunity, an opportunity for prosperity and great BTC L1. If runes copied atomics or the two cooperated, it would be a good opportunity.
But I only saw him wasting a lot of traffic. First he was unhappy with brc20, and then he casually launched his own coin issuance protocol. Runes should have ended all technical routes.
However, Runes can definitely be played in the short term, but its playability is lower than that of Sol Tugou a while ago. The hot money and traffic are here, but Runes is not worthy of its position, so I am not optimistic about it in the long run.
Kelp HIWZH @hiwzh123 :
Why don't I like runes?
1. Don’t think retail investors have any chance.
No matter the runes are numbered 0123456...the volume is huge and they all require gas. Everyone wants to wait for the price to go up and find someone to take over. At present, there are not many new entrants into the market with liquidity. I think the market is not short of scientists, but short of people who can take over.
If we can achieve it easily, I think there is a lack of buyers in the market; if we cannot achieve it easily, we cannot achieve it.
2. The long gestation period often results in good news turning into bad news.
At first, ordi/atom was only played by a small circle, which had a beneficial effect. Later, people's attention was attracted, and mice/quark appeared. These messy appearances are essentially like the recent $BOME. After three days, a hundred times, everyone was frantically looking for dragon 2, dragon 3, dragon 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, etc....
However, the runestone in the previous section has basically been used to release Dragon One in advance, and it feels like history will repeat itself when runes are released later.
3. The GAS roll is good for mining owners, but not for retail investors.
I have heard some comments, GAS is high → mining owners make money and hope it will continue → pull up the price to make money and attract leeks → everyone makes money → good news for mining machine shipments → halving reduces income → pull up the price → attract leeks to make money → cycle → cycle.
However, if you want to pull gas, you don’t need a large-scale wealth creation effect. You only need to play the guerrilla rat warehouse to create the myth of fortune. In the end, only a few leeks can make money.
4. Dreaming of replicating the DEFI gameplay.
Theory of currency swap/theory of converting first layer pledge into second layer...the essence is to play nesting dolls to bubble up assets. Some people say that the market value of the first and second layers is the same, so where is the extra data? The essence is to create fictitious data out of thin air.
The prerequisite for playing DEFI is a continuous influx of liquidity, but I think such conditions are not met at present, and there is a high probability that we will face a baptism similar to that of a bear market.
Neso @neso :
Rune naming is currently limited to more than 13 characters, and the mechanism of shortening the number of characters in the future looks cool and attracts attention, but it is not a good rule and is very unfavorable for memecoins to choose it as an early release platform.
Memecoin naming emphasizes brevity and a memorable ticker is often decisive. A 13-character name is a big obstacle to understanding and dissemination, let alone mass adoption.
Todd @0x_Todd :
If you are still awake and thinking about the rune $runes, here are 10 details:
1. The rune is minted at 840000, and now it is 839968. Theoretically, there are 320 minutes left, which is around 10:30 in the morning (UTC+8). Of course, the actual time may be ±2h, which is not uncommon for the Bitcoin blockchain.
2. Based on the long-term experience of being beaten up in PVP, if you buy pre-runes NFTs at this moment to try to get an airdrop (such as the BTC version of Magic Eden), the cost-effectiveness is low and the loss rate is high. At this time, the information gap is very small.
3. Even this round of $BTC rebound, in addition to the expectations of the US stock market, may also be due to the fact that many people prepared bullets at all costs in order to rush runes. After all, shovels will always be sold out during the gold rush.
4. With so many scientists gearing up for the fight, a war over gas fees is inevitable. This is completely different from when Ordi minted the blockchain — many of the investments this time are retaliatory.
5. Bitcoin miners: “Thank you very much, Rune.” The sharp drop in miners’ income is a sad thing, but the BTC transaction fee that everyone charges when minting Rune is actually a “huge year-end bonus after a pay cut” for miners.
6. The exchange will definitely list Runes. This is determined by KPI - anything that is popular and difficult to understand is a high-quality asset + green listing channel.
7. However, since Rune is a competitor of the BRC-20 Ordi system, especially when it comes to the UTXO model, the wallet departments of top exchanges are usually unable to complete the development in the first time. The web3 department's immediate support is already commendable. It is unlikely that the currency will be listed at the speed of light.
8. After the halving, some mining machines may shut down due to insufficient electricity costs, so the computing power may be reduced a lot near the halving block, resulting in slower block generation. The last halving slowed down by 30% in about 2 weeks (and will recover slowly with difficulty adjustment later). This time, the slowdown is expected to be similar.
9. The probability of the core developers of Bitcoin coming out to criticize is relatively small. The debate has already been had by Ordi, so there is no need to debate again. I am also a Bitcoin fundamentalist, but I am open to $Ordi and $Runes.
10. In the first few days, the mint cost is there, and scientists are reluctant to sell, so be cautious at that time. But in the next 1-2 weeks, after the [difficult period of chain computing power adjustment] and [the window period of difficulty in listing coins on major exchanges] are superimposed, if you happen to encounter [a small correction of Bitcoin], it is likely that Rune will be a golden pit in the secondary market. If you don't want to compete with scientists, gods, and mining pool users, this opportunity is worth paying attention to.
Honghong @hongshen6666btc :
About rune ideas:
My current understanding is that the Rune project party can reserve it. Unlike the Inscription, everyone works together for the Inscription. This time it is equivalent to the project party and the capital party issuing new assets on Bitcoin and harvesting the Bitcoin in everyone's hands.
How to reach a consensus? The project owner reserves more for some top NFTs and airdrops to the Inscription community. The holders are basically diamond hands. The rest is just drawing pie in the sky, buy with this idea. Different from the hype of Inscription
Dive Observer @connectfarm1 :
At present, none of the projects in the first wave of Rune are worthy of being taken over by the second level. The total market value at the beginning was rolled up too high by the gas fee, and taking over now means being buried. The most important thing is that compared with the first wave of Inscriptions, there are too many Bitcoin assets at present, and coupled with the market correction, the amount of funds in the short term is definitely insufficient. Without subsequent capital intervention, it will definitely fall.
The opportunity for runes will appear when BTC has pulled back and the market is dead. At that time, institutions will work with exchanges to accumulate some projects with only a few hundred thousand US dollars of fdv at the beginning, and cooperate with the halving market to start a wave of more than 100 times to revitalize the rune track. Although this method is not cruptonative, everyone can make money. Compared with pvp with group friends at a high position, the probability of making money by grabbing low-market-value chips from the dog dealer is higher. Refer to the second wave of $mubi $dovi in the inscription that year. Although they will eventually return to 0, they have at least increased by a hundred times.
North Talk Blockchain @NFTfafafa :
Runes are about to be launched, which will be bad for inscriptions in the short term. In the future, only one of the runes and inscriptions will survive. The Bitcoin chain has always been the first principle. I choose to bet on inscriptions.
Dylan LeClair @DylanLeClair_ :
The reason Bitcoin fees are so crazy is because a new token protocol was enabled on block 840,000 that uses an Op_Return called Runes.
This is pure depraved speculation—without any promise, or any use for any other speculation.
Pattylce @patty_fi :
The most optimistic thing about Rune is that, honestly, no one wants to touch this ancient technology, and even seasoned crypto enthusiasts don’t really know what they are talking about.
Moon @MoonOverlord:
The runes are now in complete chaos and no one knows what to do.
