Written by: Riyue Xiaochu
1 Although the bull market is generally rising, the speculation is still centered on the sector. And if a coin soars, it will drive the speculation of its sector.
2 There are opportunities everywhere in a bull market, but if you are greedy and want to grab them everywhere, it will not end well in the end.
On the contrary, as long as you catch the main rising wave of a sector, it is enough for you to make a lot of money. If you are lucky, you can catch the main rising wave of the sector rotation and the second wave, and you will make unimaginable wealth.
3 What makes this bull market different from previous ones is that there are more people with more money and more professional institutions.
Therefore, the trading strategy is adjusted to:
1) Instead of chasing hot spots, it is better to focus on good projects/sectors and dig deeper to get higher returns;
2) Join forces with a group of professional people;
3) The market value valuation of hot projects is relatively sufficient, and non-hot sectors may have high multiples;
4. You need to distinguish between awesomeness and potential returns. A very awesome project may not necessarily make you money , because the market will fully price it. That is, even if everyone is optimistic about it, it may not necessarily have a very large increase.
I would choose:
1) Those that are recognized by the market but not favored by the whole population are the focus of research, so the potential returns are high and the risks are low;
2) The sector with low market popularity is the mini-warehouse lottery sector;
5 Although it is very satisfying to cross margin in one sector, you may miss out on the entire bull market , which is not recommended due to the high risk. It is recommended to use the method of concentration + limited quantity. Divide into several key points and secondary points. The overall control is within one number.
There are three types of speculation in the 6 sectors:
1) Deterministic major events, such as the Shanghai upgrade leading to the hype of LIDO and SSV, and the Arbitrum airdrop causing the rise of its ecological projects;
2) Sudden events. For example, the sudden popularity of chatgpt triggered the explosion of the AI sector, and the release of Sora also triggered a wave of increases. For example, in the second half of 2021, the popularity of the metaverse triggered a craze in the crypto GameFi.
3) After a certain coin explodes, it becomes the leader, causing the popularity of projects in its sector;
The hype of the sector is uncertain most of the time, which is why we have to wait for the wind to come in the bull market. Because the time of hype cannot be determined. Only the first major event is relatively certain. But its disadvantage is that due to its strong certainty, the increase you can participate in may not be very large. That is because there are always many people who will make arrangements in advance. The most typical example is this year's Cancun upgrade, the increase of arb and OP lags behind other coins.
In the previous bull market, there were two strategies:
The first type: all assets are heavily invested in certain sectors
What you need to do is to wait for the bull market to come. The advantage is that it is easy to operate, so it is suitable for most people and those who are busy with daily work. The disadvantage is: you need to hold on. Holding on is a test of human nature. Especially when you see coins everywhere that are making people rich, but your own coins are standing still.
I recommend 2 to 4 specific sectors. If you want to have only one, that's fine, but it requires a lot of personal judgment. Too many sectors is risky and not recommended.
The second type: some positions are hidden, and some positions are added when the sector is hyped
The advantage is that you can advance or retreat, which is more flexible. But the disadvantage is that you need to be more sensitive to the market, spend more experience, and always focus on the market.
