BTC 's halving has been going on for a week. Comparing with historical data, after each Halving, the price of BTC increases sharply, so is this Halving similar to previous ones? In this week's on-chain summary, Coin68 invites you to XEM some information about the differences of Halving in 2024 and updates on BTC ETF Spot cash flow.
Outstanding on-chain events last week (April 22 - April 27)
1. BTC Halving 2024 and differences compared to historical periods
The Bitcoin Halving event takes place every four years and is an important mechanism that controls Bitcoin's scarcity, ensuring BTC status as an inflation-proof asset.
Past Bitcoin Halving events have consistently resulted in price increases over the following 12 months, a trend that investors need to XEM . We can see:
- During the first Halving, the price of Bitcoin skyrocketed more than 1000% .
- The second Halving saw a 200% growth.
- During the third Halving, the price increased by more than 600% .
When it comes to the Fourth Halving event, historical data can provide information to predict potential market movements and prepare appropriate investment strategies.
BTC prices in the stages after Halving. Source: Glassnode
However, unlike previous Halvings, there is a reduction in direct impact on market prices. This change is mainly due to institutional demand and the popularity of the BTC Spot ETF. More specific:
- BTC Miners today also have to compete with Bitcoin ETFs. While Miners add around 900 BTC per day to the market, Bitcoin ETFs typically buy even more, significantly affecting market supply and liquidation .
BTC generated by Miners and ETF Spot demand. Source: Glassnode
- Additionally, ETFs can influence market movements by generating large inflows. This cash flow can affect price stability and market sentiment.
In short, the inflows and outflows of the BTC ETF are making a notable impact on the availability and demand for Bitcoin. Given these factors, ETFs are major players in the market whose performance can obscure the historical impact. For traders, this means ETF trends will provide key data for key investment decisions.
2. Miners 's profits after Halving
Last week's BTC Halving event reduced Miners rewards from 6.25 to 3,125 BTC . Despite differing market predictions, Miners ' revenue hit a record on April 20 due to a sudden increase in transaction fees from the Runes protocol .
Miners
BTC Halving challenges Miners to adapt and optimize infrastructure due to reduced rewards. Comparing the performance before and after the reward cut event on three ASIC machines with different Hash rates and performance:
Comparison between Mining Rig before and after Halving
The Antminer S21 Hydro stands out as the most profitable, with the MicroBT Whatsminer M63S having a total profit 440% higher than the MicroBT Whatsminer M50S, highlighting the Vai performance plays in Mining Rig selection.
Due to the volatility of the cryptocurrency market, the Whatsminer M50S is susceptible to significant profit drops during periods of market price decline compared to other devices.
3. Update cash flow from BTC ETF Spot funds
Currently, Grayscale is holding 304,964 BTC (19.20 billion USD) and has had negative outflow every day since the BTC ETF was approved.
BTC assets on Grayscale. Source: Arkham Intelligence
iShares Bitcoin Trust (belonging to BlackRock ) ended chain of consecutive days of positive cash flow when 3 consecutive days from April 24 had no cash flow in or out of the fund. Up to now, BlackRock is holding more than 274,462 BTC , worth 17.28 billion USD .
BlackRock BTC Trading. Source: Arkham Intelligence
As Coin68 reported , nearly 23 million USD moved out of the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin (FBTC) fund on April 25. This is the first time Fidelity's Bitcoin ETF has received negative cash flow since listing at the beginning of the year.
The remaining funds outside of BlackRock such as Invesco & Galaxy Digital, VanEck, WisdomTree and Hashdex either did not have any Capital inflows or had negative cash flows since April 24.
BTC ETF cash flow by day. Source: Farside (April 26, 2024)
Coin68 compiled
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