Can this independent trend of ETH last? Can it drive the take-off of altcoins?
Brother Sun and others have been buy the dips Ethereum at the bottom, and there is also good news about Ethereum in Hong Kong.
Personally, I think that the independent strength of ETH does not mean that the current market situation has definitely started. At most, it is just a rotation rebound of the market sectors, and there will be no sustained rebound afterwards.
If Ethereum fails to reach 3500-3600 within three days, and the currencies such as ETHFi, ENS, etc. that rebound and unwind, sell them first. Don’t hold on to them, as they will adjust again!
Specific reference to the recent rebound currencies: saga, JTO, etc., without exception, they all rebounded and cut a wave, and the pull-up did not continue.
According to experience, in the early stages of a bull market, there will be a market cleansing before and after each round of Bitcoin halving. One or two months after the halving, the market will gradually bottom out and start a unilateral upward trend. This experience is still of reference value.
Recently, BTC has been fluctuating between 60,000 and 74,000. For large funds, every time it approaches 60,000, it is an opportunity to increase spot positions.
Every time BTC crashes, altcoins are an opportunity to increase positions.
However, for the current research on Shanzhai,
From the initial waterfall stage of the copycat, it can be seen that big funds were withdrawing rapidly.
Why is it so urgent? The core is that the village needs to cut off a wave of enemies and reserve more bullets to prepare for the next stage.
After all, when BTC was rapidly reaching new highs, it was obvious that the altcoin funds could not keep up. This was probably because ETF funds were flowing into BTC, but there was no ETF fund inflow into the altcoins.
In the future copycat season, the prerequisite for a collective copycat rise is that the overall market needs to rise and stabilize.
In the early stage, the BTC rose too fast, and many copycats could not catch up. When the BTC crashed, it was even more impossible to pull up the market against the trend, because the BTC was unstable. If the copycats pulled up the market, the dog dealers might suffer losses because retail investors were afraid and stopped chasing.
The question is whether BTC is willing to continue to fluctuate and stabilize at 60,000-70,000, or return to 56,000 or even further down to accumulate strength again. If it cannot be pulled up and cannot break the 65,500 pressure level, a pin-point pullback is understandable.
Let me tell you about my current thoughts on the market:
1. Needless to say, in the long term, I can even say with certainty that the bull market of BTC is still there 100%. The simplest thing is that the beacon country has not cut interest rates yet? Why are some people in the market starting to worry that the bull market is gone? Even if there is no interest rate cut this year, not even once, what about 25 years? What about 26 years? Can the interest rate not be cut in the next two years? Can the beacon country withstand such a high debt? Interest rate cuts are inevitable, so it is also inevitable that there will be a big bull market in the future.
2. BTC has just completed its halving. After the halving, which cyclical bull market of BTC did not start to explode completely at the end of the half-year period? In plain words, the law of BTC cyclical bull market is that it will complete the crazy bull market 6-12 months after BTC halving. The specific outbreak time and end time cannot be predicted. Because it is impossible to accurately judge what narrative and what reasons lead to the outbreak. Of course, it is also impossible to accurately predict when it will peak. As an old hand in the circle, I firmly believe that BTC's crazy bull market will be late, but it will definitely come.
3. In a word, I firmly believe that this bull market is far from over, and I firmly believe that BTC still has room to rise by at least twice.
The data in the industry also began to show a downward trend. The funds of the BTC spot ETF did not have the crazy net inflow at that time. Now the net inflow began to gradually decrease, and there was a feeling of entering a balanced state. If the incremental funds are not crazy and the incremental funds are not sustained, we have to think about a problem. That is, can the current incremental funds withstand the current output cost value of BTC? As far as I know, the current BTC mining output cost electricity price, mining machine depreciation cost, labor, etc. are all calculated, and the cost is about 40,000 to 50,000 US dollars.
At the current cost price, as long as the dog dealer wants to make trouble, it is still possible that the BTC will suddenly clean up the market and create a gold mine in the short term.
Future investment directions for the altcoin market and the tokens in the promising sectors:
①Solana Ecosystem: Pay attention to the conference in September, and pay attention to SOL, JTO, JUP, PYTH, BOME, and BONK. ②BTC Ecosystem: The inscription sector has great potential in the second half of the year, and pay attention to ORDI, SATS, RATS, STX, and MUBI. ③RWA sector: Pay attention to ONDO and TRU. ④Game field: Pay attention to IMX, XAI, PIEXL, YGG, GALA, and ACE. ⑤New public chain: Pay attention to TIA, SUI, and SEI. ⑥AI field: The GPT-5 conference is coming soon, and pay attention to RNDR, FET, LPT, ARKM, NFP, JASMY, and WLD. ⑦MEME: Pay attention to DOGE, PEPE, WIF, and SATS.
⑧L2: ARB, STRK, LRC.
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