Making long-term predictions of up to 5 years or 10 years of Bitcoin price requires synthesizing a sufficient amount of past data to establish models. Different mathematical models give different results.
Predict Bitcoin price with power law model (Power Law)
Power law is one of the forecasting models that startups love to use in convincing VCs to invest Capital. The power law represents the relationship between two great quantities X and Y according to the formula Y = MX^B (where M is a constant and B is an exponent). According to this formula, a change in X can amplify a change in Y depending on the exponent B.
In a recent viral Chia on the X network, account @apsk32 applied the power law to the growth of Bitcoin price over time, and it was received by many KOLs with positive responses.
The result of applying this growth model to Bitcoin price prediction over time, is that BTC could reach $1 million by July 2031, and grow even more in the following years, until when 1 million USD is the Dip of BTC in July 2036. @apsk32's illustration style is notable for its accessible presentation effects set against lively music.
However, this growth model assumes that B in the power law formula is always > 1. In the case that at the same time spent, BTC begins to increase "less", then the exponent B will be between 0 and 1. At this time, the above forecast model may no longer be on track.
Predict Bitcoin price with S-curve model
Many new investors feel they are too late to enter the market at a time when Bitcoin is at a high price compared to the past. But if they look to the S-curve Bitcoin adoption model, they will still feel like early adopters of BTC , compared to the Internet.
The S-curve model, also known as the Sigmoid model, describes growth starting with small steps that gradually accumulate first, followed by larger steps until a growth limit is reached. Wily Woo (@woonomic) is one of the KOLs pursuing Bitcoin price predictions with this model, and comparing it to the Internet adoption curve model.
Willy Woo said that by May 2024, Bitcoin will have 426 million users (this number of users is calculated from glassnode data and KYC data on exchanges). In theory, the S-curve model predicts exponential growth until a critical mass of 50% (or 0.5) is reached. Meanwhile, calculated according to S-curve, the growth of BTC so far has only reached 4.7%.
This means that BTC has a long way to expand its users, while the majority of the world's population has not yet become BTC users, such as the Internet.
Predict Bitcoin price with the latest Stock-to-flow model
The Stock-to-Flow (S2F) Bitcoin price prediction model is no longer unfamiliar to many investors, creating PlanB's brand. So far, PlanB has just announced that it has refined this model with new data. And from there, PlanB made new predictions for Bitcoin price as follows:
PlanB believes that the price of BTC can reach 500,000 USD in the period 2024 - 2028, and reach 4 million USD in the period 2028 - 2032. It can be seen that PlanB's calculations and predictions go even further than the model. Price prediction according to power law. If BTC can rise to $4 million in less than 10 years, now is still "too good" to start buying Bitcoin.
However, if you look at PlanB's statistics table, the error section indicates the error of the S2F model, and the later it gets, the error gets larger, sometimes exceeding 40%, sometimes -33%. Continuing long-term loyalty to the S2F model has helped PlanB's opinions continue to be heard despite times causing great skepticism.
