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Headline articles: Israel continues to attack Gaza, Russia conducts nuclear tactical exercises, the United States provides $61 billion to support Ukraine's counterattack and the introduction of anti-Semitic bills. All kinds of messy news are for no other reason than to hit your wallets!
Following #kraken #coinbase #binance #consensys, Robinhood has become the latest target of the SEC, so will it delist the so-called security tokens this time or continue the lawsuit?
ETFs received another 217 million inflows last night, and GBTC has seen positive inflows for two consecutive days. It seems that the market crash is really over! Binance IEO projects all plummeted by more than 10%, and $rez fell 16.5% in a single day, vomiting out all the gains over the weekend!
In the secondary market, public chains and #AI sectors performed best. In the primary market, only solana on-chain meme/cats had a money-making effect. The @pumpdotfun platform issued tens of thousands of on-chain meme every day, with an annual revenue of over 128 million US dollars. Is the biggest innovation of this bull market the one-click on-chain meme issuance platform?
The currency market is still too sensitive now. It will fall at the slightest sign of trouble. Yesterday, it was said that the market was gradually improving. As a result, the Israeli president's statement last night that he would continue to attack Rafah to eliminate Hamas caused the market to panic again. In addition to the conflict between Israel and Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine are also not idle. It is said that Russia is already conducting nuclear tactical exercises. The United States is about to provide Ukraine with $61 billion in aid to promote the counterattack plan against Russia next year. In addition, there are rumors that the United States is going to have a civil war because of the recent introduction of the "Anti-Semitism Act", which was interpreted by some outside experts as a conflict between the Anglo-Saxons who control the army and the Jews who control wealth. In short, there have been too many geopolitical conflicts recently, so many institutions have instinctively developed risk aversion ideas, and the final result is that the crypto continues to pay. Another important reason for the plunge last night was that Robinhood also received a wells notice from the SEC. It seems that the SEC's major crypto disaster series is still continuing. This time, the SEC is still targeting the fact that the crypto assets listed by Robinhood are securities. The whole incident can be compared to the script of SEC vs. Coinbase. In addition, the chairman of the CFTC said yesterday that a wave of cryptocurrency enforcement cycles is expected in the next two years. Now the contradictions between regulators and crypto service providers are becoming increasingly irreconcilable, and it is expected that a major regulatory storm will soon come. These are all uncertain factors in the future and the main reason for the callback last night.
There was no major negative news last night. Williams, the third-ranking official of the Federal Reserve, also said that interest rates would definitely be cut eventually. Barkin said that the full impact of the rate hike has not yet fully emerged, and he believes that the current restrictive interest rate level is sufficient to curb demand. The two officials did not support any interest rate hikes, which means that the option of raising interest rates can be ruled out after the release of non-farm payrolls and unemployment data last Friday. The latest data from CME shows that the most likely time for a rate cut is still in September, with a probability of about 66%, which is slightly lower than the probability after the non-farm data last Friday. However, the impact on the market is not particularly large, which can be seen from the fact that the three major US indexes rose across the board last night. The decline in the currency market last night was an independent trend, mainly caused by geopolitical conflicts and regulatory panic caused by the Robinhood incident.
Then, let's talk about the market. Last night, spot ETFs saw a large-scale net inflow again, with an inflow of $217 million. In addition, Grayscale GBTC continued to see a net inflow last night. Although it was only $3.9 million, it at least shows that Grayscale's selling pressure has indeed disappeared. Several other institutions have also maintained a state of capital inflow, especially Fidelity, which saw an inflow of nearly $100 million last night. The inflow of the big brother BlackRock has been around 20 million in the past two days, which can only be considered mediocre, but in terms of trading volume, BlackRock is still far ahead. Hong Kong ETFs had a net outflow of $1.7 million last night, which will basically not have much impact on the currency market in terms of volume. This wave of ETF net inflows did not cause the market to rise during the day today. I personally think that the negative impact caused by the geopolitical and regulatory crises is too great. The net inflow of ETFs can only be said to neutralize part of the decline, otherwise the decline in panic will definitely be greater than it is now. The decline of altcoins such as Ethereum is much greater than that of BTC. Currently, ETH/BTC is only 0.048, which is further down from yesterday's 0.05. This is because ETH is also facing the negative impact of the SEC's rejection of the ETF compared to BTC, and the SEC has postponed Invesco's ETH spot ETF application last night. In terms of sectors, no sector had an independent trend yesterday. Most of them were falling, it was just a matter of how much. For example, Binance's new IEO project $rez fell by 16.5% yesterday, basically wiping out the gains of the past two days over the weekend. The entire new coin sector fell by about 10%. Relatively speaking, the public chain and #AI tracks were relatively stable. $sol $redr $wld $kas $inj $near is still at the top of the list of increases. Relatively speaking, it rises quickly and falls slowly. The trends of other copycat sectors are quite weak. Everything has to wait for the market to re-determine its direction before there will be a market. So wait patiently.
Finally, let's talk about the primary market. Currently, only #memeon-chain memehas a money-making effect in the primary market. The large MC memecoin/cats that have emerged in the past few days are $hammy $mewing $crodie $peanie $paletine . These projects are selected from hundreds or thousands of miles away, and the increase is at least dozens of times. However, it is difficult for non-professionals to grasp this, so everyone can only play with one or two sols. It's a bit like buying a lottery ticket. If you win dozens of times, you will get zero if you lose. According to statistics, tens of thousands ofon-chain memeare released on the sol chain every day, most of which are on the pump platform. The current annual income of this platform has exceeded 128 million US dollars. Therefore, compared with playingon-chain meme, this kind of platform that makeson-chain memeis the most valuable. At present, there are many imitations of the pump platform, such as the pump that issued coins a few days ago. investment, but it seems that this has returned to zero. In addition, the founding team of the pump platform is working on projects on two chains. The sol chain is pump, which has become a cash cow. The other wave is developed on blast, named @sax_trade. There is no movement yet, so you can pay attention to it. Another primary gathering place is LBP of the $fjo platform, but several projects have lost money recently, and even $fjo's own coins have broken the issue price. It can be seen that it is actually very difficult to make money in the primary market now, so participating in the LBP project should be very cautious. It is not recommended to participate in any of the current projects regardless of the track.
Market Analysis
$BTC: Bitcoin was in a bull market for three hours yesterday, and then I heard that Israel would continue to fight Hamas and Russia would conduct nuclear tactical exercises, so it resolutely chose to go down. Even though the ETF had a net inflow of $200 million again last night, risk aversion has already risen. However, considering that the current macro expectations for interest rate cuts have improved, and wars come and go quickly, I think there is nothing to be afraid of in the short-term correction. Bernstein has recently bombarded several predictions in a row, saying that BTC will reach $150,000 before the end of 2025. I think this prediction is still reliable. At least BTC downward space is not as large as its upward space, so there is definitely nothing wrong with long-term holding.
$ETH : ETH continues to be weak, and the exchange rate against BTC has dropped to 0.048. The most important reason here is that the rejection of ETF may happen at any time, and the gas level is really terrible now, so it is difficult to rise in the short term. Let's wait for the negative news to come into effect.
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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