Continue to do your homework, although the turnover rate on Monday has increased compared to the weekend, but essentially there is no difference. Many of the partners who bought the dips around $60,000 last Friday have cut their losses and exited the market today. There are still quite a few partners who chase the rally when it goes up and turn bearish when it goes down. At this stage, if you want to do short-term trading, you must be more sensitive to macroeconomic information.
The issues of 50 and 25 have been discussed many times. Now it is the blackout period of the Federal Reserve, and the only way to get direct news from the Federal Reserve is to wait until the 19th, or to see if Nick will come out to explain, or even today I see that the information channels in the United States are very fragmented. Goldman Sachs believes that it will only cut interest rates by 25, BlackRock believes that the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut will not be too high, while CME and Polymarket users believe that the probability of 50 is greater, and there is even Elizabeth Warren's proposal of 75 basis points.
The market has large fluctuations because of the differences. As always, the more the initial interest rate cut, the better in the long run, but in the short-term trend, 25 may be the most stable choice.
Looking at the BTC data, apart from the short-term investors who have bought in recently, the earlier investors are still in a "watching" mode and have not participated in the turnover. The current chips are still concentrated between $56,500 and $61,000. After a further wash, this position is likely to become a new support level, and it is clear that the price range of $64,000 to $69,000, or even higher, has almost no reduction.
This indicates that the investors at this stage have been washed out, and the remaining ones are almost not for short-term holding.
The data has been updated, link: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d...
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