Today's homework submission is a bit confusing, especially the tug-of-war between 25 and 50. You say it's a positive sign, but the US stock market has been fluctuating during Powell's speech, and even though it seems to have ended now, the ups and downs of the US stock market are still jumping around the horizontal line. You say it's a negative sign, but the sentiment of intermittent rises is still there.
Looking purely at Powell's speech, he has been emphasizing the relationship between the labor market and inflation, believing that a balance has now been reached, and that the Fed is currently ahead of the economy (employment), and that a 50-basis-point rate cut is still defensive, and he does not expect any problems with the US economy.
Although the market has already expected the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points, the market doesn't seem to be very convinced by Powell's explanation. It's actually quite interesting that after the 50-basis-point rate cut, the US dollar index rose back above 101, and long-term US bond yields rose, so I personally feel that the market is still in a game period and there is no clear answer.
Whether the US economy is entering a recession, and whether the Fed has seen information that investors cannot see and chosen to "get ahead" to prevent problems, these are the concerns of investors, but it is clear that Powell's response today did not provide a satisfactory answer to the market, so the tug-of-war between bulls and bears may not be today, but tomorrow, after the market has had a chance to calm down.
Today, the on-chain data of #BTC is more reflective of the data before the rate cut, and the data after the rate cut will not be seen until tomorrow. There is no obvious sign of risk aversion in the data, which means that early investors have not chosen to exit due to concerns about the rate cut. The highest turnover is still among investors who bought the dips in the past two days, and recent profitable investors have seen a large amount of reduction, while earlier investors have not shown any significant moves.
More data will be available tomorrow.
The data has been updated, link: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d...
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