CM

CM

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陈默 build https://t.co/sUxN5UgoWD DeFi OG. Core LUNAtics. 中文 CRYPTO 投研/影片/社群

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Signal Clone Analysis

I largely agree with ZachXBT's point of view. Circle can choose not to intervene, and I'm not qualified to criticize it. However, Circle may not realize that they are the fastest and most effective party to stop this behavior; true regulation is still difficult to penetrate this area. USDC's most advantageous battlefield is also on-chain, especially in DeFi. If Circle doesn't intervene, the market will lose confidence, and USDC will gradually lose its leading position. twitter.com/cmdefi/status/2039...

The problem with Drift is not with smart contracts at all; the problem lies entirely with "people." It's not that blockchain is too insecure, but that the cost of doing evil is too low.

Let's talk about Lido's buyback. Recently, Lido proposed using 10,000 stETH to buy back $LDO. The motivation is simple and direct: they believe LDO is oversold against ETH, and they provided some data. Currently, the LDO:ETH exchange rate is approximately 0.00016, about 63% lower than the median of 0.00043 over the past two years, while protocol revenue has only decreased by about 20%. From the LDO price perspective, it's basically close to its historical low. The market capitalization is also similar; at its peak, it was $3 billion, and now it's around $300 million. Interestingly, Lido's business remains stable and simple, earning approximately $50-60 million annually. However, it shares a portion with operators, so even halving that, it still generates $20-30 million. From this perspective, it's quite inexpensive. The only question is whether the staking business is on the rise or on the fall. Frankly, pure staking is a declining business because the barrier to entry is getting lower and lower, and solo staking is gradually being encouraged. So, does Lido have a chance to rise? Yes, it does. V3 has modularized its staking service, allowing direct integration with institutional needs. Most importantly, it allows Lido to inherit stETH's liquidity, which is currently Lido's biggest competitive advantage. If institutional staking requires on-chain circulation of LSD, Lido is a good choice.

V4 was launched during Aave's most controversial period.

Aave V4 is now live on @ethereum.

The biggest names in finance were asked one question: how do you define Ondo? “Pioneer.” — Fidelity “Market leading player.” — S&P Global “An incredible partner.” — Solana Foundation “A very solid vision for where the world is headed.” — Franklin Templeton “A lot of innovation and leadership in the space.” — DTCC Featuring leaders from Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, WisdomTree, S&P Global, DTCC, Alpaca, and Solana Foundation. ↓

I carefully reviewed the ARFC version of the Aave Will Win proposal; it's very long and detailed, and I feel it has a high probability of passing. Here are a few key points from my perspective: **Adjustments have been made to previously controversial content, such as the 100% revenue allocation to the DAO. The definition of this revenue has been further clarified, and it will be audited by a third party every quarter.** Excellent. **V3 will continue to operate, changing the previous view that V4 would completely replace V3.** Excellent. **The requested budget is still quite large, but the AAVE token release period has been increased from 2 years to 4 years.** The budget details, roadmap, KPIs, etc., have been made public, which is quite detailed and clearly explains what will be done and how much will be spent. Acceptable.** **Aave Labs will absorb some functions from BGD Labs and ACI and promises to focus solely on Aave development and not develop unrelated businesses.** A very good attitude. **Expanding revenue through V4, which I think is the most crucial point. The proposal expresses that the V4 model can achieve many businesses that V3 could not reach, including the reinvestment module mentioned a few days ago, all of which are optimizations in product structure to increase revenue potential.** Aave Labs' article is very detailed, and it answered most of my questions. I think the governance issue is resolved. Aave didn't solve the problems inherent in the DAO structure, but it mitigated the damage at the protocol level. The future development is simple: V4. The success of V4 will allow the market to forget the unpleasant experiences. Otherwise, this sector may face a reshuffle.

AIXBT has been promoting Morpho a lot lately, and while I like Morpho too, his claim that Morpho achieved a 2x aave volume growth without incentives is problematic. Morpho's model already gives a lot to Curator; the protocol itself doesn't generate profit, which is a natural incentive, albeit not at the token level. However, I strongly agree that Morpho is very suitable for AI Agent use cases.

morpho processing 2x aave volume on base with zero protocol fees and zero token incentives. organic growth without mercenary capital. the MORPHO token doesn't capture fees yet but governance controls the fee switch. when that activates the entire volume growth reprices instantly.

If the Clarity Act passes as it was in 2016, then the only viable scenario for stablecoin yields will revert to DeFi. All custodial stablecoin issuers/intermediaries will be prohibited from providing yield to user balances in any form. This includes the previous loophole in the GENIUS Act where projects would give rewards to CEXs, who would then distribute them to users. Non-custodial DeFi is unrestricted. T1: Aave, Sky, Morpho T2: Pendle T3: On-chain strategic projects TX: Decentralized stablecoins T1 projects are the most obvious beneficiaries. Pendle may benefit from a booming on-chain interest rate market. Furthermore, there are on-chain strategic projects, those that balance yields across various DeFi projects. Reflect, the co-founder of this post, falls into this category. Previously, they lost market attention because CEXs and centralized institutions dominated this field, both in terms of user experience and yield. However, if this is restricted, these on-chain projects may regain attention. Decentralized stablecoins are a matter of opinion, so I won't elaborate. In summary, the core benefits are: all DeFi protocols that allow users to control their funds and generate real economic activity and returns through smart contracts. (Coinbase has explicitly opposed this, as it directly impacts Circle USDC's business, but the banking industry will likely maintain this stance; we'll see if there are any changes in the negotiations.) twitter.com/cmdefi/status/2037...

Aave V4's Reinvestment Module doesn't seem particularly impressive. From what I've seen, it essentially reinvests idle funds in the lending market that haven't been borrowed by borrowers. I have several questions. If too much is taken, what happens when lenders want to withdraw and the pool's buffer funds are insufficient? This raises redemption issues. If it affects borrowers, it's inappropriate; taking too much is clearly bad. But if too little is taken, the yield improvement is limited. Furthermore, this introduces another risk-related party. According to official calculations, in 2025, there will be an average of approximately $1.2 billion in idle USDT. Investing all of this would increase lender yields from about 4% to 4.9%, but obviously, it's impossible to invest it all. Even after halving it, the yield improvement would likely be around 0.5%. Aave's explanation is that this ensures, in most cases, lender yields are not lower than short-term risk-free rates like SOFR. It's mainly for dealing with market downturns. Overall, it's at best a nice-to-have feature. twitter.com/cmdefi/status/2037...

Sky received investment from Tether, or rather, through a process similar to DAT (Digital Asset Management). NBY, originally a pharmaceutical company, transformed into a stablecoin development company, raising $130 million through PIPE and purchasing $SKY tokens. Tether was among the investors, along with Framework, a long-time supporter of Sky. Currently, this money has purchased over 2 billion $SKY tokens (representing 8.78% of the total supply). DeFi infrastructure is beginning to be accepted by traditional markets. Sky, Spark, USDS Just beginning twitter.com/cmdefi/status/2036...

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