蓝狐

蓝狐

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蓝狐笔记，通往web3的世界。（1.仅记录想法，没有客观只有主观，不能作为投资建议；2.蓝狐笔记只有此号，没有任何telegram或discord等群，没有其他分号，不会要求任何人参与投资，也不会发表跟区块链无关内容；3.不会发布链接，不要点击，谨防受骗。)

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Daydreams was the first team to support x402 v2 and open-source its code. What are the benefits for them? Currently, there are several considerations: First, it's about seizing ecosystem dominance. x402 is a payment standard, similar to "highway rules." Whoever open-sources the infrastructure first and gets it adopted by the most developers/partners/users gains a competitive advantage. The Daydreams team cleverly recognized that facilitators are standardized products. Rather than simply running nodes themselves, the potential profits are limited (due to intense competition). Open-sourcing it allows everyone to participate, making them leaders and aligning with a community-driven crypto culture—not working in isolation, but fostering community development, which benefits their brand. Second, on the 12th of this month, the SEC released new regulations supporting crypto payments. Open-sourcing x402 v2 has the potential to attract businesses and developers who need crypto payments. This update, in addition to the dual settlement mode and multi-chain support, also includes the x402 engine, Coinbase server wallet integration, and more. The partnership with Coinbase is beneficial for its long-term development (Coinbase has a $500 million plan to invest in crypto infrastructure, some of which may flow to developer tools supporting the x402 ecosystem). Finally, the core of Dreams is not the facilitator, but its AI agent. Open-sourcing it allows more people to run the facilitator themselves, expanding the user base of the x402 ecosystem. For Dreams, its value lies not in charging more fees for the facilitator, but in enabling its AI agent to run, generate transaction volume, and find application scenarios – that's what it truly wants. For example, an e-commerce AI agent can use x402 v2 for automatic settlement, and a financial AI agent can optimize cross-chain transactions, and so on.

别的团队还在计划更新， $dreams 已经做好了支持x402 v2版本的facilitator（也许是第一家支持的）并且开源给大家使用，这就是埋头干事的团队，相信市场终将会纠正偏差。团队这次更新的facilitator是一个用 Node.js/Elysia 写的高速结算引擎，专门干两件事：链上验证 + 结算。 x.com/lordOfAFew/sta…

Mastercard recently partnered with the Analog Devices (ADI) Foundation to support stablecoin settlements, payments, and transactions. How should we understand this? The ADI Foundation is a blockchain organization based in Abu Dhabi (the UAE). They have a chain called the ADI Chain, which is not an independent Level 1 blockchain but rather an Level 2 chain built on the Ethereum ecosystem's Zksync technology. In other words, through this partnership, Mastercard can now utilize the Zksync network for stablecoin payments and transactions. Since ADI is located in the Middle East, this partnership may have a greater impact on the Middle East and related regions (with large populations of Indians, Southeast Asians, and Africans working in the region). If the partnership with ADI yields positive results, more financial institutions will consider adopting Zksync's elastic chain technology to build their new financial systems (Deutsche Bank and Citibank are also testing asset tokenization on Zksync). Whether it's Zksync, other Ethereum Level 2 blockchains, or other chains, the global banking, payment, and transfer systems are gradually moving towards crypto-finance. This also foreshadows a trend: in the future, all money-related matters worldwide will gradually be handled on the blockchain, rather than through the old-fashioned banking system.

One token saw its price surge more than tenfold in the last 20 days. From a fundamental perspective, the project lacked positive news, the project team remained almost silent for the past six months, and the token had no clear practical use. However, its FDV (Funds-to-Value) rose from less than $30 million to over $500 million (at its peak). On-chain data reveals the collaborative accumulation of at least 50 wallets or more clusters, forming a control structure and creating supply scarcity. After the whale completes its spot market control, it then uses contracts to create airdrops to squeeze out supply and achieve cyclical profits. In this process, the traders exploited two groups: those who chased the highs and short sellers. Short sellers constituted the majority, leading to negative funding rates. The price increase caused a short squeeze, further pushing prices higher. At least tens of millions of dollars in short positions were liquidated (for example, in one day's total liquidation of $15 million, $11 million came from short sellers). In other words, whales first control the market, creating a supply shortage, and then use contracts to squeeze short sellers, creating a positive push: prices rise → more short positions are liquidated → prices rise even higher. Based on approximate costs, the wallet cluster's cost is estimated to be between $5 million and $20 million, with the exact amount unknown. Profits are likely generated through spot appreciation, funding rates, and short squeezes. Some profits have already been realized, with unrealized gains estimated at over $50 million, and potentially exceeding $100 million at its peak. The specific profit depends on the delicate timing. Players attempting to trade against whales when they control the majority of the spot market face significant risks, especially during periods of market consolidation. This PvP game is extremely risky; only a very few astute players can profit, while most will likely become mere fuel.

"Buy a great company, buy it at a reasonable price, hold it long-term, and patiently wait for it to appreciate." This seems simple, but almost everyone fails to do it, even knowing that Buffett and Coca-Cola are classic examples. Why do so few people actually practice it? The core reason: This strategy is simple, but extremely counterintuitive. It requires people to overcome both psychological and behavioral barriers, which are almost instinctive. For example, right now, the market is in a panic phase, and no one knows when the bottom will be. Everyone knows to buy when fear is high and sell when greed is high. But most people buy when market sentiment is euphoric, fearing they'll miss a historic opportunity; and then "cut their losses" when the market crashes, fearing they'll go to zero. The reality is, many altcoins have indeed gone to zero. This kind of muscle memory only reinforces people's fear. Regarding behavioral barriers, people prefer action to stillness. Especially now that people are used to instant feedback, they don't feel anything from slightly longer feedback. Even if someone says that BTC will rise to $1 million and ETH to $100,000 in the future, no one will feel anything. However, if BTC recently rises or falls by $2,000, and ETH by $500, people immediately react. Comparatively, inaction breeds greater anxiety, and this instinctive anxiety drives frequent buying and selling, thus destroying the power of compounding. There are other aspects of human nature, such as most people believing they are smarter than others. Overestimating one's own cognitive bias is widespread; most people draw conclusions based on information they prefer. If the relative return lags behind, it's even more unbearable. For example, seeing BTC/ETH returns lower than other projects, or Coca-Cola lower than tech stocks. This kind of painful comparison is hard for human nature to tolerate. Then, people start switching sectors, chasing trends, and missing out on bigger opportunities. Compounding is too time-consuming. Even if people recognize and discover quality companies, few are willing or able to wait five, ten, or even twenty years. Long-term holding strategies are difficult for most people. With information overload, there are always various voices telling people that something is outdated, which shakes their resolve.

巴菲特在可口可类高达60倍PE时仍然没有买，结果套牢很多年。当时，他们认为人每天需要64盎司水,而一半会是饮料，饮料的一半会是可口可乐，因为可口可乐过去经历战争和各种事情都是增长的，所以还要继续高速增长。有人嘲笑他们的乐观，觉得自己更聪明；有人学习他们的乐观，知道巴芒赚麻了。

Recently, a16z proposed the concept of "Staked Media," which is quite interesting. Considering that social media is now filled with AI accounts, fake news can look just as real, and ordinary users simply don't have the time or energy to distinguish between truth and falsehood. The prediction of "pledged media" is not a pipe dream. It may happen within the next two years. So, what does it mean to pledge media? In simple terms, using cryptographic technologies like ZooKeeper allows media outlets or individuals to prove their credibility, similar to "signing a written agreement" online. This agreement is recorded on the blockchain and cannot be tampered with. However, simply signing an agreement isn't enough; collateral, such as ETH, USDC, or other cryptocurrencies, is required. This serves to prove the authenticity and reliability of the published content. If the information is proven to be fake, the collateralized assets will be forfeited. This creates an environment that encourages speaking the truth. AI-generated articles and videos are everywhere, along with rampant fake news. Staking media is meant to make content creators more cautious, rather than speaking carelessly. For example, if a YouTuber posts a video praising a product, they might stake some ETH or USDC on the Ethereum blockchain. If the video is fake, the money is lost, and viewers feel reassured. Or, imagine you're a blogger recommending a phone; you might stake $100 worth of ETH on the Ethereum blockchain, stating, "If the phone's beauty function doesn't achieve a certain effect, I'll compensate you." Viewers see you've staked money and perceive you as reliable. If the video is AI-generated, the $100 is lost. How can you play the staking game? You can imagine it. Whether it's a KOL/media outlet or a minor influencer, when publishing an article, you need to "sign a document" on the blockchain (such as Ethereum) (signature verification is sufficient), and at the same time deposit a certain amount of tokens (such as ETH/USDT) into a specific smart contract. If the content is false, this money will be confiscated (given to the victim or destroyed). If the content is legitimate, the money can be returned after a certain period of time, and you may even receive a reward (such as staking the media's own issued tokens/funds confiscated from other sources for false content, etc.). The specific amount to be staked depends on the platform's rules. Major media outlets/ KOL who publish important news will stake more tokens, such as hundreds or thousands of dollars or even more; smaller influencers who publish everyday content may only need to stake tens of dollars. The amount can be linked to the content's influence (using a fluctuating algorithm); the greater the influence, the more tokens can be staked. For media outlets, pledging does increase financial costs, but it can gain the trust of the audience, which is also a cost in the age of fake news. However, how is authenticity determined? It's verified through a dual approach of community and algorithm. On the community side, users with voting rights (who need to stake crypto assets) vote on-chain. If a certain percentage, such as 60% or higher, declares it fake, it's deemed fake. Additionally, an algorithm analyzes data to assist in the verification. If the content creator disagrees, they can initiate arbitration, which is then handled by an expert committee. If malicious manipulation by voters is discovered, their funds will be confiscated. Participation in voting and becoming a member of the expert committee are rewarded. Rewards come from confiscated funds and the media's own tokens. In addition, content creators can use zk technology to generate proof of authenticity from the outset, such as using zk technology to generate videos. What if rich people cheat? Rich people can pledge large sums of money to create fake news. As long as the returns are large enough, they might do it. This involves not only pledged funds, but also historical records and reputation. Accounts with a history of penalties and confiscations are tagged, and the pledged funds for future content will increase. If an account is penalized and confiscated three or four times, people will be less likely to trust its subsequent content, and there may be legal repercussions. Therefore, falsifying information has significant costs, including not only financial losses, but also the trust built over time, historical records, reputation, and real legal liabilities. Perhaps the pledged media project is already underway.

The probability of Lighter being airdropped before the end of the year is increasing. Firstly, Coinbase has added the Lighter token to its listing roadmap; secondly, on Polymarket, the probability of a Lighter airdrop has surged to 93%.

From Tom Lee's numerous interviews, his core logic for long-term optimism about Ethereum can be summarized as follows: 1. Ethereum is the core settlement layer of the future financial infrastructure. ETH is not only a cryptocurrency but also the infrastructure for building and running DeFi, stablecoins, NFTs, on-chain markets, RWA, etc. Especially in RWA, this will be the biggest narrative of the future. Wall Street is putting trillions of dollars worth of assets (bonds/stocks, etc.) on Ethereum. As the dominant settlement layer, Ethereum will generate substantial demand and drive up ETH's value. Tokenization is not short-term speculation but a structural shift that will drive an ETH bull market independent of BTC. 2. Institutional adoption and a mature ecosystem. Currently, approximately 4 million BTC wallets worldwide hold assets exceeding $10,000, while nearly 900 million stock/pension accounts globally hold similar amounts—a difference of over 200 times. In comparison, crypto adoption is still in its early stages; Ethereum's developer community is the strongest; and the Ethereum network is the most robust. Furthermore, unlike BTC, ETH has practical utility, such as staking rewards and DeFi, making it more suitable for long-term institutional holding. 3. Non-Consensus Opportunities. Tom Lee has consistently favored "non-consensus" investments (earning 100x returns on telecom stocks in the 1990s). Many OGs (early adopters) are currently finding crypto "boring" and switching to AI or stocks, but this is precisely because they have matured while the industry is still in its infancy—a new wave of investors is about to flood in. 4. Not Just Talk, But Action. BitMine (BMNR) is the world's largest ETH treasury company, chaired by Tom Lee. BitMine currently holds approximately 3.86 million ETH (about 3.2% of the total supply) and aims to reach 5%. In December 2025, BitMine will continue to buy ETH heavily (even amid price volatility) and has $1 billion in cash reserves plus staking rewards. (Note: Actually, 3.2% is already quite a lot, 5% is slightly more.) Tom Lee's Price Prediction (This part doesn't need to be taken too seriously, after all, price prediction is God's business) • The most "crazy" long-term target: If the ETH/BTC ratio returns to 0.25, ETH could reach $62,000 (extreme scenario, based on a supercycle). • A more realistic 2026 target: $7,000–$9,000 (2026), or even $20,000 (provided there's a tokenization boom). • He believes ETH will have bottomed out by the end of 2025/early 2026. There may be short-term fluctuations, but 2026 will be a "big year" for L1 chains (especially ETH).

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