The current rise in unemployment, which everyone is most concerned about, is mainly due to the increase in labor supply, and the decline in demand is not obvious.
Of course, you can assume that it will only get worse and not better, because no matter corporate profits, prices, income growth, or the absorption capacity of the job market are slowing down.
However, there is still a fundamental difference between the expected mild slowdown and recession. I personally tend to think that the US economy is more likely to remain in an expansionary state, and risk assets still have room to rise in the next few months. It is not appropriate to be overly bearish, but I don’t want to see new highs. Financial markets will price in the possibility of recession from time to time. This is why I said it was garbage time two weeks ago.
