Jinze 金泽

Jinze 金泽

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Here are my reading notes NOT financial advice. Now @MuseLabs1 +LD Research. Prev. Binance Research, WallStreetCN, EY.

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Although I don’t play, I admit that meme coins are of great significance - benchmarking the government in the real world, and realizing the role of wealth redistribution in the crypto: when young people cx a new coin from anybody, and eventually let the old money in the crypto take over, the wealth will be rebalanced from the old to the young. Without such a rebalance, the crypto will become more and more concentrated due to the lack of supervision and macro-control, and eventually become a stagnant pool like any authoritarian government or industry... x.com/i/web/status/18490672740...

1⃣I just read the World Economic Forum's "Global Gender Gap Report 2024". In terms of economic participation and opportunity, China's score is 0.738, ranking 39th out of 146 countries. 2⃣Countries with scores close to China include Denmark, New Zealand, and Ireland, which have always been considered to have a high international status for women. Considering that China is traditionally considered to be a country where men are superior to women, this is a very good result. … x.com/i/web/status/18481809034...

Three scenarios for China's future economic development trends via Nomura Too long to read version: 🟢In the optimistic scenario, Beijing can successfully avoid major market risks and take the opportunity to promote structural reforms, which is more beneficial to the economy in the long run. 🔵The baseline scenario predicts that the market will experience small fluctuations, the government will fail to solve fundamental problems while stabilizing the economy, and policy space will be compressed. … x.com/i/web/status/18439032861...

Standard Chartered Bank's valuation comparison and future prospects of Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH): 1. Market Cap-to-Fees Ratio: The market cap-to-fees ratio of SOL is 250, while the corresponding ratio for ETH is 121. A higher ratio suggests that SOL is relatively overvalued in the market, and the market has high expectations for the future fee income growth of SOL. 2. ... x.com/i/web/status/18439010747...

From the public fund data, foreign capital has continued to flow out YTD-$20 billion, domestic capital has flowed in (likely the national team taking over) YTD+$110 billion, foreign capital has not benefited from this wave, and the current chip structure is very good, quickly pull it up so that foreign capital cannot afford it.

Expected information on fiscal policies and market stabilization measures that the Chinese government may implement in the second half of 2024 and early 2025 via MS: 1. Upcoming fiscal stimulus policy events: End of October 2024: National People’s Congress Standing Committee meeting… x.com/i/web/status/18431792878...

The central government must be aware of the seriousness of this problem to social stability. Subsidizing the poor will be the focus of the new stimulus policy. Pay attention to the optional consumer goods sector.

The fundamentals of A-share companies are still relatively poor overall and there is no sign of improvement. However, it is useless to look at these now. The key is whether the National Development and Reform Commission and fiscal stimulus can be delivered.

The real interest rate differential is leading the weakening of the US dollar, but as the US economic activity data remains relatively strong, it is difficult for the high valuation of the US dollar to fall off a cliff in the short term. In other words, with the recent rebound in real interest rates and the rapid decline in the US dollar, pay attention to the brewing wave of US dollar rebound

After the rate cut, the stock market will be a big tailwind if there is no recession.

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