The Source of Bitcoin's Plunge: BlackRock's IBIT
1/ Anomalies First Appeared in IBIT
On February 6th, IBIT's single-day trading volume reached approximately $10.7 billion, nearly double its previous all-time high, with options premiums reaching approximately $900 million, simultaneously setting new records.
Spot and options trading volumes surged simultaneously, a rare occurrence, suggesting a concentrated movement around existing positions.
2/ Price Drop but Absent Contract Liquidation
Subsequently, BTC and SOL weakened in tandem, but CeFi liquidation remained low. While prices fell, deleveraging did not occur.
This structure indicates that the selling pressure did not originate from retail investors or high-frequency leverage, but rather from passive adjustments closer to the position holders.
3/ Pressure Points to Large IBIT Holders
Analysts believe that this round of volatility may have originated from large IBIT holders, including one or more non-crypto hedge funds that have used IBIT for highly concentrated allocation. The larger the position size, the lower the tolerance for price volatility.
4/ Position Structure Amplifies Risk
Data shows that some funds have extremely concentrated holdings in IBIT, even belonging to a single asset allocation, mainly to isolate margin risk.
This type of structure has limited room for adjustment in a one-sided market and is easily pulled in the opposite direction by prices.
5/ External Factors Accelerate Imbalance
During the same period, silver prices fell sharply, yen carry trades were liquidated at an accelerated pace, and risk appetite contracted at the macro level, putting additional pressure on the leveraged positions of related funds and further compressing their operational space.
6/ Hedging Attempts Fail to Reverse the Outcome
Some funds may have attempted to hedge or delay risk release through high-leverage options trading, but as losses widen, hedging costs rise simultaneously, and price volatility becomes a new source of pressure.
7/ Time Cannot Conceal Scale
Due to the lag in 13F disclosures, relevant position information is expected to emerge only in mid-May.
However, judging from the trading volume and trading patterns, this type of risk is difficult to hide for long, and the market has already reacted in advance.
The entire logic starts from abnormal data, focuses on position structure and unsustainability, and the conclusion is already written in the price movement.
