What I learned in 2025
1. Table selection is crucial
One personal regret that I have is not thinking more about what's beyond crypto. I have a bag of boring equities that I hold for the long term but I think I would have spotted the warning signs for crypto weakness when I saw it continually underperform other risk assets and gold. Sometimes it's not about the nominal price action but the relation between asset classes.
2. The start of a trade is only half the battle
What I've realize deeply this year is markets love to fake you out of positions. Your thesis on a trade can be completely right and you could still end up losing money because you got shaken out of a trade. Only take positions you can hold through volatility and time.
3. AI is one of the biggest equalizers and few people are using it to its full potential
I learned how to use APIs, created cloud servers that helped automate info I needed, made a website that helps me calculate average funding costs over a certain period of time and more. The easiest way to get better at using it is to find a problem that you want to solve and start prompting and asking.
4. Most profit is made off few trades so make them count
I feel like the average successful PNL curve usually consists of a bunch of sideways to downward trend followed by a big jump off a great trade that you took. The truth is that trading is usually frustrating because it feels like no progress is made when your trades are basically flat or at a loss. Good traders minimize the damage they take on average and are able to keep the profit that they keep.
5. Progress isn't Linear
A bit similar to point 3. For the most part, you never see the fruits of your labor immediately. In many cases, it can take months to years. The real alpha is that most people don't stick to it long enough to get to the other side because of that very reason. The people who stick around and survive are only able to do so because of the delayed gratification, consistency, and discipline.
6. Markets are a game of positioning
Know thy enemies better than thy self. Every market is an economy by itself where traders are playing against each other. When trading, think about things like who is in profit right now. Who is incentivized to dump and who is incentivized to buy. Are perp markets skewed long or short? How are whales positioned? It's easier to understand your trade when you have a better vantage point of the market.
7. Real Edge comes from you
It's better to lose based on your own thesis over listening to someone else. At least with your own decision making you can go back and understand why you were wrong and how you can adjust. If you listen to others, all you are doing is borrowing conviction. Even if they are smart, the person you are listening to has a different view of the market, a different exit plan. Maybe they have a higher risk tolerance because their portfolio is larger. Just because it works for someone else doesn't mean it will work for you.
8. You can't keep the money when you're gone
When all is said and done, the only real thing that is left when you are gone are the memories other people have of you. Money can buy you comfort. Money can buy back some of your time. But money won't be there for you when you're gone. Cherish the moments you have with the people you love.
9. Volatility and Time matter as much as Direction
Think most people obsess over directionality but don't think as much about volatility and time as much as they should. Volatility defines your expected risk tolerance and time often determines the strength and weakness of the move.
10. Focus on percentage gains over nominal
Recently I have turned off all nominal gains and only focus on the percentage gains of a position. What matters in a good trade is what you gained compared to how much you risked. The nominal amounts add unnecessary noise to this.
