Good stuff, save it.
Simply add the logic of the above calculation method (a small number of projects may not be applicable, but most of them should be applicable).
We need to make it clear that the essence of airdrop is to give benefits to users (it is also possible that some projects do not intend to give benefits at all, just pure cutting).
With the above premise clear, let's think again: how much is given? How much is it worth?
Finally, let's judge whether it is worth brushing/buying.
For example, @LensProtocol has two rounds of financing, the first round is unknown, and the second round of financing is 15 million. According to the current circle, the financing scale is generally calculated at 10% of the valuation, so the valuation of the second round of financing is about 150 million.
At that time, the main reason why lens made everyone fomo was not only the bonus of the social track itself, but also that the domain name of lens as an asset was also crowned with "possible airdrop conditions" and showed an extremely exaggerated increase.
At that time, the highest floor price of the domain name should have reached more than 300u, and the number of domain names was as high as 11w
Even if calculated according to the 220u in the above tweet, the market value of 11w domain names is already 24 millionw.
The current domain name market value is close to 16% of the valuation, which leads to two ultimate questions
1. Which project party will give 16% of the airdrop share to users, and at the same time increase its potential chips of 16% out of thin air?
2. For users who are still rushing 220u, do you expect to get your money back from the airdrop or get rich from the airdrop?
The final result is obvious. Putting aside the fact that the coin has not been issued yet, those who bought the high-priced domain names before have become the ones who take over
Of course, the first batch of people who bought the domain names must have made money, but it was not because of "making money from airdrops", but because of "hype"
Let's answer the questions mentioned at the beginning
How do I judge whether a project is worth brushing?
1. First use the financing amount * 10 to simply judge the approximate valuation of this project
2. Then look at the products of the same type and track that have issued coins. How much are their airdrop shares? Multiply it by the valuation and simply estimate how much money it is worth to users
3. Reflect again, how many times do you expect to get from this project? And can the value given to users by the project support your expectations? If so, what is your share in it?
4. Finally, let's look at the number of users involved, your cost, how much do you have to do to get the corresponding profit?
The above is just a simple judgment logic. As for how to prevent witches, how to predict airdrop rules, how to reduce costs, and how to do cost grafting, it is another topic.
Finally, the reason why I wrote this is mainly because many novice users have no independent judgment awareness at all. They follow the kol and blame the kol for the loss in the end.
Let's make one thing clear. All the information you see is just information. The final information screening, value judgment, and implementation all depend on your own decision-making. This is what is often called dyor
