Dehydrated poster: Bitcoin has entered the range of hoarding coins and fixed investment

Highlights of this issue :

1. Crypto ETPs see first net inflow in five weeks

2. Key tips for trading Altcoin

1. Willy Woo (@woonomic): Risk appetite is coming

In response to a Twitter celebrity’s statement about rising liquidity, Willy Woo recently commented, “Risk-on is coming, probably when asset managers come back from summer break.” (Risk appetite is coming, probably after fund managers finish their summer vacation. It suggests that the market may rise soon.)

2. BitJin (@roger73005305): Don’t focus too much on the BTC/ETH exchange rate and say ETH is undervalued

As an aside, many people use the BTC/ETH exchange rate to argue that Ethereum is severely undervalued at the moment. My opinion is different from most people.

The so-called exchange rate K-line is just a trend in the past and cannot explain anything. BTC always goes up and there is no ceiling. ETH may not be the same?

Can you guarantee that Ethereum will always innovate? Why is its exchange rate tied to Bitcoin? Look at the gap between gold and silver, which is getting bigger and bigger. The same is true for BTC and Ethereum.

BTC is a currency with rigid demand, but Ethereum is not. It is only a matter of time before it falls behind. The gap will get bigger and bigger in the future. So many people don’t understand Bitcoin or Ethereum. Why don’t MicroStrategy buy Ethereum? Why don’t Sihai buy Ethereum? Why don’t many large institutions buy Ethereum? Those who truly understand Bitcoin will not allocate too much Ethereum. They are not the same thing in essence. The gap is too big.

If there are some popular applications or ecosystems on Ethereum recently, there will definitely be a surge in the price. If not, it will be difficult and continue to decline. There must be a logic for the rise. Ripple was also the second largest in the past, right? It has been selling coins and has fallen behind. The Ethereum Foundation also often sells coins, and now it has also fallen behind.

3.TechFlow (@TechFlowPost): BTC has entered the fixed investment range

According to Coingalss data, the current Bitcoin AHR999 index is 0.99, indicating that Bitcoin has entered the range of hoarding and fixed investment.

It is reported that the indicator was created by Weibo user ahr999 to assist Bitcoin fixed investment users in making investment decisions based on timing strategies. The indicator implies the rate of return of short-term Bitcoin fixed investment and the deviation of Bitcoin price from expected valuation.

@0xCryptoChan: The average cost of investors holding coins on the chain for 1-2 years is rising, which may be a sign of the start of the second half of the bull market

The sign of the start of the second half of the bull market may be the upward inflection point of the average cost of investors who hold coins on the chain for 1-2 years (yellow curve in the figure).

@lookonchain: Two whale are suspected of short Ethereum

In the past 2 hours (Note: around 17:00 on May 13), 2 whale borrowed 8,400 ETH (US$25 million) from #Aave and deposited it in Binance. They may be short ETH.

According to Coinmarketcap data, the top five currencies in terms of 24-hour popularity are BTC, HOOK, PEPE, TON, and JTO. According to Coingecko data, in the crypto market, the top five sectors with the highest growth are L1, Smart Contract Platform, A16z concept coin, Alameda concept coin, and Alleged SEC security token.

Focus: Uncovering the BTC spot ETF holding institutions: Rothschild and JPMorgan Chase are not among the top ten, who is the first?

As institutional investors continue to submit 13 F (Institutional Holdings Report) documents to the US SEC to disclose their holdings of Bitcoin ETFs, the amazing purchasing power behind Bitcoin spot ETFs is revealed. The following list is ranked according to the amount in the documents disclosed by the institutions themselves. The standard for institutional disclosure is that the company manages US assets of more than US$100 million or the institutions and individuals who buy and sell more than 5% of a single ETF share.

Susquehanna International Group (SIG) ($1.3 billion): Susquehanna International Group (SIG) is an American financial services company headquartered in Belmont, Pennsylvania. It was founded in 1987 by Jeff Yass, Arthur Dantchik and Joel Greenberg.

Ovata Capital ($74 million): Ovata Capital is an investment management company headquartered in Hong Kong. Ovata Capital has a large position in US Bitcoin spot ETFs, including FBTC, GBTC, BITB and IBIT, which account for 13.5%, 11.2%, 8.8% and 5.6% of its portfolio respectively, with a total value of more than $74 million.

Hightower ($68.34 million): Hightower is a US-based global wealth management firm that provides comprehensive financial planning, investment management and asset management services. The company's client base includes individual investors, family offices, corporate clients and charities.

Rubric Capital Management ($60 million): Rubric Capital Management is a US-based investment management firm founded in 2011. The firm focuses on equity investments and is known for implementing a long-term value investment strategy.

Institutions holding tens of millions of dollars mainly include: Yong Rong Asset Management ($38 million), United Capital Management ($34.91 million), Legacy Wealth Asset Management ($28.5 million), Monolith Management ($24 million), IvyRock Asset Management ($19 million), Quattro Financial Advisors ($16.5 million), U.S. Bancorp ($15 million), Oxler Private Wealth ($11.24 million). Other institutions holding tens of millions of dollars include Edmond de Rothschild Holding SA ($4.2 million), Newbridge Financial Services Group ($1.34 million), Bank of New York Mellon ($1.113 million), JPMorgan Chase ($760,000), SouthState ($557,200), BNP Paribas ($40,000), and Wells Fargo Group (undisclosed).

Coinbase: Macro uncertainty continues to dominate Bitcoin

The continued lack of clear macro direction has led to a continued decline in Bitcoin in recent weeks. Altcoin have also been largely in the same boat, with correlations within the crypto asset class still close to their highest levels since the beginning of the year. The current uncertainty in macro factors supports our thesis in our April Outlook that macroeconomic conditions will continue to dominate BTC performance (with Altcoin to follow), with US spot ETF inflows tapering off and the market beginning to look for catalysts other than the Bitcoin halving. Although the ECB and other central banks have reiterated plans to cut interest rates in the summer, higher-than-expected US inflation data has raised concerns about the Fed delaying rate cuts. Expectations of extended US rate cuts have led to a stronger US dollar, which in turn has weighed on the broader cryptocurrency market due to its key role as the quote currency on most cryptocurrency exchanges.

However, the dollar’s ​​strength has stalled following a more dovish-than-expected Fed meeting, and after weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls on May 3, market expectations for the first rate cut (based on Fed Funds futures) shifted from November to September 2024. Higher-than-expected initial jobless claims on May 9 further added to the drive for faster rate cuts, as the Fed has a dual mandate to not only fight inflation but also keep unemployment low.

Nevertheless, we do not think that changes in the US unemployment rate (currently at 3.9%) will be a focus for the Fed in the near term, as it remains close to historical lows. In fact, we still believe that the US economy will be supported by technological progress and government spending and is not on the verge of entering a contraction period. At the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, we believe that the Fed's attention and rhetoric will remain focused on inflation indicators, which highlights the importance of the upcoming PPI and CPI data on May 14 and 15 as expected macro catalysts, especially if they are higher than expected.

Separately, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw inflows in its first two days since transitioning to an open-ended fund. While the source of these inflows is unclear given their higher management fees (1.5%) compared to similar spot products (less than 0.5%), this development signals the completion of a structural capital rotation. We believe a large portion of early GBTC outflows were related to bankruptcy proceedings (e.g., Genesis and FTX), profit realization from GBTC discount trading (40% discount to NAV a year ago), and a shift to low-fee products (<0.5% vs. 1.5%). While we have previously cautioned against using flow data as a first-line indicator of future price action, looking ahead, we do not expect structural distortions in flow data.

CoinShares: Digital asset investment products see first net inflows in five weeks

Digital asset investment products saw their first inflows in five weeks, totaling $130 million. However, ETP volumes continued to decline, with $8 billion traded this week, compared to an average of $17 billion in April. These volumes highlight that ETP investors are currently less engaged in the crypto ecosystem, accounting for 22% of total global trusted exchange volume, compared to 31% last month.

Regionally, the United States saw the largest inflows, totaling $135 million, while incumbent Grayscale saw its lowest weekly outflows since January, totaling $171 million. Switzerland saw inflows of $14 million.

Hong Kong saw inflows of just $19 million following record inflows the week before, suggesting that much of the first week of funding for Bitcoin ETFs was seed money. Canada and Germany continued to see outflows of $20 million and $15 million, respectively, with year-to-date totals now totaling $660 million.

Bitcoin inflows amounted to $144 million, resuming a so far weak month. Outflows from short Bitcoin ETPs totaled $5.1 million, bringing outflows over the past 8 weeks to $18 million.

The low level of interaction between U.S. regulators and ETF issuers applying for Ethereum ETF spot has increased speculation that the ETF will not be approved soon, which has been reflected in outflows totaling $14 million last week.

Ardizor: Key Tips for Trading Altcoin

1. Understanding the psychology of the crypto market is the most important

In the crypto world, emotions drive everything. Human psychology is unchanging, and market patterns always repeat themselves.

Here’s a rough visualization of market psychology patterns:

2. “The best time to buy is when the market is bleeding”

While many people realize this, people tend to sell when fear dominates the market, only to buy back in when greed takes over. This simple rule has the potential to generate huge profits.

Recognize the pattern and swim against the current.

3. Understand insider trading

Here’s a recent example: a wallet bought HAMMY immediately after its launch for $1,500 and then sold it for $177,000.

How can we be sure this is an insider wallet and not a random trader?

Consider this: How was this person able to buy in before the unexpected surge when there was no positive news about the project in the market at all?

The answer, of course, is inside information.

4. How to find these hidden internal wallets?

Visit: https://dexscreener.com/

Find popular coins in the past 6 hours or 24 hours

Click Head Trader

Search for early deals

Copy wallet address

Go to: https://alphatrace.co/

To get better results, consider filtering out wallets with a profit of more than $500,000 and a win rate of 60%.

5. "How can I discover potential coins before others?"

Visit: CoinMarketCap / Coingecko

Select 10-30 tokens that interest you from your favorite field

Visit: https://dropstab.com/

On this website, you can view important information such as project investors, number of Twitter followers, and financing data.

6. Where to view token economics

Visit Token Unlocks or VestLab to see the highlights:

Tokens allocated for the community

Investor lock-up status

Investor Cost and Current Price

Finally, it is critical to verify the security of your token contracts. This habit will protect you from potential scams, rogues, and honeypots. The following two commonly used validators may be useful:

SOL: https://rugcheck.xyz/

EVM: https://www.coinscan.com/