June Outlook

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雨中狂睡
06-02
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Hello everyone, here comes the June Outlook.

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In the monthly content, after adding enough, I want to try the effect of subtraction this time. I will only talk about my thoughts on future market trends and some time nodes (catalysts) of specific events.

In this cycle, it seems that only memecoin gamblers can make money. $WIF is a little better. The price fluctuation of $PEPE is actually quite large, and few people can really benefit from it. There are also some basic coins that perform well, but they are relatively few, such as $PENDLE. If we want to select the hot words of the year, PVP will definitely be one of them.

So what should we do?

Here are some of my personal thoughts:

1. Fundamentals and community

Are fundamentals important? I think they are.

I think the current fundamentals should refer to the ability to "attract market attention". The current fundamentals are closely related to indicators such as project data, chips, community stickiness, marketing/KOL speech and narrative/catalyst, and whether it can meet the core needs of the market. We need to look at a target more comprehensively.

For example, $PENDLE. I personally think that Pendle's indicators in these aspects are great. In terms of the correlation between fundamentals and narratives, the initial rise was because Pendle catered to the LSD narrative. This year, Pendle was deeply involved in the LRT narrative, which pushed the price to continue to rise. This coordination with the narrative keeps Pendle at the forefront of market attention. That is, when people discuss or intend to buy, they will think of Pendle.

I also participate in the Pendle community, and Pendle does a good job in community stickiness and product education. For example, the @PendleIntern account is very good. Users who are really interested in Pendle products can learn some strategies through the Intern account and make plans that are more suitable for their financial situation.

I won’t talk too much about the marketing aspect. There are many introductions to Pendle on Twitter, you can search for them. These marketing contents can be summarized in one sentence: there are few blind shill, and most of them are short articles, threads and prints based on logic, data and products.

When doing most of the targets, we need to refer to these indicators.

2. Information transmission

It is important to know which layer of information transfer you are at.

3. Market sentiment

Learn to observe market sentiment. The specific method is to go deep into the community, observe the comments of community members/community KOLs, and go to Twitter to see what the smart money says when market sentiment is high/low.

You can establish your own information flow and observe the market sentiment at key time points.

Looking back at the market sentiment in early May, does it have that flavor?

Small Tips: You can go to Douyin to watch it.

Also, remember to observe your emotional ups and downs.

3. Practice prediction

It has been mentioned in many articles introducing GCR, so I won’t go into details here. You can search for it.

Next, let’s talk about the targets that I am more optimistic about:

1. ETH ETF

ETH ETF is great, no need to say more. In addition to leverage, the best Beta of ETH is those with ETH in the name, such as $ETHFI $ENS . ( $ENA I won’t recommend it, $ETC counts as one, but the production reduction event is over). Although I have a position in $LDO, and the fundamentals and circulation conditions are good, considering its performance some time ago, I will not recommend it (even though it has recovered recently).

Of course, the same is true for Pendle, but I've talked about Pendle so many times this year that I won't go into detail here.

As for meme, in addition to $PEPE, you can take a look at $MOG, which is a meme that is more popular overseas.

If it is related to ETH DeFi, I will consider $MKR. $MKR The future catalyst is: split + SubDAO (another point worth noting is the cooperation between MakerDAO and Ethena).

As for Beta, you can wait until ETH actually starts to rise before chasing it.

Let’s talk more about Layer2.

1. BaseChain

I have set up an ambush on Base$DEGEN. As for whether it can make money, it will take time to verify. We can look forward to what will happen to BaseChain after Coinbase launches the smart wallet. We should always pay attention to projects that can bring cash flow to the project party in the long term.

Pay more attention to opportunities on the Base chain, such as the gaming sector (e.g. Aavegotchi). Aavegotchi’s Layer3 built on Base will launch mainnet in Q2 this year. Maybe this month.

2. Arbitrum

The Arbitrum community's "200 million ARB game catalyst plan" proposal should be passed. This is definitely good for Arbitrum's game ecosystem (such as TreasureDAO).

$MAGIC also has a Layer3 expectation in the future. On April 22, TreasureDAO has launched the Layer3 testnet and is expected to launch the mainnet in Q3 of this year, which supports staking.

In addition, Radiant may be affected by LayerZero's coin issuance and v3 upgrade (this has been hyped several times as far as I can remember), and there is a possibility of a short-term rise (I will most likely not participate).

2. AI

The AI ​​sector only discusses two targets with confirmed date catalysts:

$FET

The merge will happen on 6.11/6.13, after which it will be renamed to $ASI.

$AR

$AO related information will be released on June 13, and participants can mine $AO through $AR.

I personally prefer $AR some.

There are many other AI coins, so I won’t repeat them one by one. The market sentiment of the AI ​​sector will change according to changes in the external environment. However, I would not consider participating in $WLD.

3. Political Meme

I only participated in $MAGA of the political memes on the chain. I bought it at 35 yesterday and plan to hold it again. I will pay attention to the sentencing hearing on July 11 (Trump’s birthday is also coming soon).

The political meme on CEX is $PEOPLE. I will set a market value target of 1 billion US dollars for $PEOPLE.

For tokens with large price fluctuations, my outlook articles will have some lag. Therefore, after seeing Trump speak out to compete for Crypto voters, or the unexpected passage of ETH ETF, we should realize that politics will become the mainstream narrative of the market. Enter earlier.

4. Can Solana break new highs?

My initial thought was that $SOL might be affected by $ETH's strength (bloodsucking).

Now I have changed my mind: Solana has the attributes of a memecoin casino (referring to those celebrity memes, most people will choose to issue memecoin on Solana), and the current market has a rigid demand for memecoin gambling.

Therefore, I think $SOL will not be sucked too much blood during this period - the current crowds of $ETH and $SOL have been divided, and people who play $SOL will not easily migrate to $ETH. On the contrary, the rise of $ETH will raise market expectations and push market sentiment to a high point, and Solana will be the beneficiary.

V. Others

1. Selfchain Mainnet

I was hurt by this target ( $FRONT ) last year, so I won’t look at it.

2. Fantom Sonic

At present, Fantom's launch of Sonic mainnet is a sell news for the speculators of $FTM. Always pay attention to AC's subsequent actions. Now that the link is out, there must be something to do on it (my expectation).

3. Uniswap "Start-up Fee Mechanism" Voting

It has been postponed. The reason may be that a certain VC is putting pressure on Uniswap. I will keep a certain attention on this matter (as a bystander), but I will most likely not participate in the hype.

April and June are also big months for airdrops, so you need to be aware of the risks.

Finally, I would like to make a small advertisement for my paid group. Currently, there are about 460 people. It is jointly operated by me and Mantou. I mainly do investment research and fundamentals, and Mantou mainly looks at secondary + On-Chain meme related. We both look at Alpha content. The price is 3SOL/year.

TG Channel: https://t.me/+nFecUZLZhMBlMTc1

Useful information list: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JSmI-YDvbdxXJ1Tud2sK8mly33zh1VmcH8i5wUgSYs0/edit?usp=sharing

Sector:
SEC Security Token
Solana Ecosystem
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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