After falling to a low of $58,300 yesterday, the cryptocurrency market rebounded to a high of around $62,000 early this morning. Ethereum also once rose to $3,430. The 3,500 short order given in Daxian’s article "The influence of the 6.23 Ethereum spot ETF is limited, and it may fall to a new low after passing" published on the evening of June 23rd reached a low of 3,210. As of the time of writing, the price was quoted at $3,382.
The demand for Ethereum spot ETFs is expected to be much lower than that for Bitcoin spot ETFs. Ethereum does not have a demand catalyst like Bitcoin halving, and Bitcoin investors have a different value proposition than Ethereum. Bitcoin halving, as a potentially bullish event, is also an additional catalyst for creating demand for Bitcoin spot ETFs, and Ethereum does not have a similar driving force. Since the trading activity in the Ethereum market is not as active as Bitcoin, and the total amount of assets under management is relatively small, investors' interest in Ethereum spot ETFs may not be as high as that of Bitcoin spot ETFs. Therefore, the initial reaction of market investors to Ethereum spot ETFs may be negative, which may put downward pressure on the price of Ethereum.
Ethereum four-hour chart
First of all, according to the Bollinger Band indicator in the Ethereum 4H level chart, the Bollinger Band mouth is narrowing, indicating that market volatility is decreasing. The current price fluctuates between the middle track and the lower track. The middle track of the Bollinger Band 3394 serves as short-term resistance, and the lower track 3275 serves as short-term support.
Secondly, according to the KDJ indicator in the Ethereum 4H level chart, the KDJ three-line value formed a death cross downward at a high level, which means that there is a possibility of a correction in the short term, and the J line value is moving downward rapidly, indicating that the downward force has increased in the short term, and there may be a small correction next.
Finally, according to the MACD indicator in the Ethereum 4H level chart, the DIF line and the DEA line are running below the 0 axis, indicating that the overall market is still in a downward trend. The MACD red bar chart is gradually shortening, indicating that the rebound momentum is weakening and the market is about to enter a downward trend.
Ethereum one-hour chart
First of all, according to the Bollinger Band indicator in the Ethereum 1H level chart, the current price is fluctuating near the lower track of the Bollinger Band, and the mouth of the Bollinger Band is narrowing, which shows that market volatility is weakening and the distance between the upper and lower tracks is narrowing, indicating that the market may enter a shock consolidation stage in the short term, and prices will not fluctuate too much in the short term.
Secondly, according to the KDJ indicator in the Ethereum 1H level chart, the K-line value and the D-line value are currently hovering around 50, which shows that the market is currently in a state of shock and there is no obvious trend direction. The J-line value has pulled back to a lower position and turned upward, which means that prices may have a chance to rebound in the short term.
Finally, according to the MACD indicator in the Ethereum 1H level chart, the DIF line and DEA line are rising rapidly, indicating that the current price trend has a certain upward momentum, and the MACD green bar chart is also gradually shortening, indicating that the bullish force is beginning to exert force in the short term.
Comprehensive analysis: According to the 4H level chart, the KDJ indicator shows a short-term rebound signal, and the short-term momentum in the MACD indicator is weakened, which also supports the possibility of a short-term rebound. The price may test the resistance level of the middle track of the Bollinger Band at 3394. If the price cannot stabilize the middle track, then the subsequent market can rely on the middle track resistance of 3394 to short at short. According to the 1H level chart, Ethereum is currently in a state of shock consolidation and may fluctuate within the current price range in the short term, with no clear upward or downward trend.
To sum up, the following suggestions are given for reference
Ethereum rebounds to around 3395-3390 and short, target 3338-3280, defense 3420.
The Bitcoin strategy is still to continue holding the short order at 61,900 given in the article yesterday, and the take-profit point is moved down to around 60,300.
Writing time: (2024-06-26, 19:20)
