Source: Web3 Sniff Observation
As the US presidential election has attracted widespread attention, the crypto prediction market has also become hot. Previously, Trump has been following and forwarding prediction market Polymarket, which makes people curious about the origin and gameplay of this platform. Let's find out.
On June 28, the first televised debate between Biden and Trump attracted global attention, and the participation in election predictions on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction platform, also increased. Current data shows that Trump has a 62% chance of winning the election and Biden has a 23% chance of winning.
Polymarket is different from other crypto projects. It is a special crypto project that focuses on prediction markets. It provides binary options products, where users can make predictions and bets on specific events (such as the US presidential candidate election or the target price of cryptocurrencies). In simple terms, users can bet "YES" or "NO" on the outcome of an event, and this option is an option product you get.
In addition, it is not difficult to find that the most popular prediction category on Polymarket is actually American politics. The top five prediction markets are all related to American politics. This also reflects the unique appeal of this platform in predicting and investing in political events.
What is Polymarket?
Polymarket is a blockchain-based decentralized prediction market platform that allows users to bet on future outcomes of various topics using cryptocurrency. The platform utilizes smart contracts running on the Polygon blockchain, which reduces fees and speeds up transaction settlement.
On Polymarket, users do not directly deposit funds, but participate in the market through an automated market maker (AMM) or order book system to provide liquidity. This model allows users to bet on the outcome of an event ("yes" or "no") and win the corresponding bet when the prediction is correct.
Last month, Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan announced that it had completed a $45 million Series B round of financing led by Founders Fund, founded by Peter Thiel, and co-founder of Ethereum Vitalik Buterin. So far, Polymarket has received a total of $74 million in financing.
Polymarket allows users to trade and redeem outcome shares by investing in real money markets about the outcomes of currently hotly debated events. Users need to deposit USDC stablecoins into the Polymarket wallet and purchase outcome shares to participate in the market. The price of these shares reflects the market's expected probability of the outcome of the event.
Since Polymarket is based on the Polygon network, its transaction fees are low and the transaction speed is fast, allowing users to make predictions and bets at a lower cost and higher efficiency.
In addition, Polymarket supports multiple recharge methods to facilitate fund operations for different types of users.
For Web3 users: You can deposit USDC, USDT or ETH on the Polygon chain directly from your wallet or exchange (if you deposit ETH, it will be automatically converted to USDC). Almost all mainstream exchanges support the Polygon chain, and the operation is very convenient.
For Web2 users: You can top up via mainstream payment and trading platforms such as credit cards, Apple Pay, Google Pay, Paypal, Robinhood, etc. This provides convenience for users who are accustomed to traditional payment methods.
How Polymarket works
The main category of predictions in Polymarket is the binary prediction market, where users can predict that an event will or will not happen. This simple and straightforward mechanism is easy for users to understand and participate in. For example, users can bet on who will win the 2024 presidential election on Polymarket. Users express their predictions by purchasing shares of "yes" or "no".
When the election results are announced, if the user's prediction is correct, they will receive a reward; if the prediction is wrong, they will lose the amount they bet. This mechanism incentivizes users to make accurate predictions of the results. Among them, the price (odds) represents the probability of the current event occurring.
Example: For example, in the "Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election" market, if "yes" is trading at 63 cents, it means that the market believes that there is a 63% chance that Trump will win.
If users believe that Trump's true chance of winning the presidential election is greater than 63%, they will buy "Yes" shares at 63 cents each. If their prediction is correct and Trump is elected president, each "Yes" share will be worth $1, with a profit of 37 cents per share. On the contrary, any user holding a "No" share will find that the share in his hand is worthless.
Operation example of US election prediction: As shown in the figure below, after entering the market trading page, you can see the buy and sell modes on the right. Taking the buy option as an example, you can bet YES/NO. Transactions are divided into market transactions, limit transactions and AMM. After selecting the transaction mode, just enter the amount and click on the transaction.
In addition to participating in predictions in the market, users can also place limit orders to obtain rewards, that is, participate in Polymarket's liquidity reward program. It can be said that Polymarket provides users with a direct and clearly incentivized prediction platform, enabling them to effectively predict and invest in various events.
Interactive experience tutorial
Polymarket has completed $74 million in financing. The project has not yet issued tokens. Due to its leading position in the prediction market, many people are optimistic about this project. If there is an airdrop in the future, it is likely to be a big project. If you are optimistic, you can plan the interaction in advance.
1. Register. First, you need to register Polymarket. Go to the official website and click the register button in the upper right corner. There are two ways to register: email registration and wallet link registration. Since Polymarket uses a password-free email login method, it is recommended to register with an email address, and then use the wallet link to authorize and authenticate, and log in directly.
2. Recharge. There are several ways to recharge your account. Here we take wallet recharge as an example. Click "Skip".
Polymarket will directly generate a wallet address, which needs to be topped up from an exchange or other platform. The top-up currency is USDC. After the on-chain top-up is received, you also need to click 'Confirm pending deposit' to confirm the arrival and activation of the currency. After these steps are completed, you can trade.
Go to the "Portfolio" option, copy the recharge address, and use the wallet to directly recharge an appropriate amount of USDC (20-30U is enough for the first try), which will usually be credited immediately.
3. Transaction. After the recharge is completed, enter the option "Markets" to start betting. You can see the description of each packaged product, and then bet on this event. Select "YES" or "No" to complete the bet.
There are two ways to exit after placing a bet: First, select the "Portfolio" option to view your betting situation and click to enter. If we buy the "NO" of this event to place a bet, then we will choose this "NO" option to sell "sell", enter the maximum MAX quantity you purchased, and complete the exit.
The second way is to wait for the predicted event to end and then redeem your options. It should be noted here that if the prediction of the event is correct, you will gain profit (1 US dollar for each share held). If the prediction of the event is wrong, you will lose the principal and profit.
3. Liquidity rewards.
Polymarket's trading mechanism adopts the form of an order book, which requires more orders to promote trading liquidity. In order to encourage user participation, the official launched a liquidity reward activity. Users can earn subsidies by trading limit orders. The closer the order is to the buy and sell prices of the market, the more income they earn.
The operation process is also simple. Switch the trading mode to limit trading (Limit), and then move the mouse to the "Rewards" in the upper right corner of the order book. The system will automatically display the official required order range, and all order prices in the light blue box can enjoy the reward policy. In addition, providing liquidity may result in uncompensated losses, so it is recommended to invest 5 to 10U for the first attempt.
