Cryptocurrencies rise after Trump was shot, why?
The reason is simple. The market expects that this incident will increase Trump’s chances of being elected. It also believes that Trump is a more cryptocurrency-friendly candidate and that the Republican Party is also a more crypto-friendly party.
This is not the first time a U.S. presidential candidate has been shot. The last time was President Ronald Reagan more than four decades ago. At that time, Reagan's polling rose sharply in the months after the shooting. Some people believe that it will be the same this time. , the shooting incident will increase Trump's poll numbers and give him a higher chance of being elected.
As can be seen on the website of the prediction market Polymarket, the current prediction probability of Trump being elected has reached 71%. The prediction market is like the future event exchange in Taiwan many years ago. It is a trading market that allows people to bet on future events. Some people would say it is gambling, but it is more like a kind of "prediction" that can be done. Innovative mechanisms for transactions.
Does Trump support cryptocurrencies?
Trump’s attitude toward cryptocurrencies has not always been consistent. During his previous presidential term, Trump had a negative attitude towards cryptocurrencies, believing that cryptocurrencies are mostly used for illegal activities and may also pose a threat to the traditional financial system.
However, after Trump left office, his views on cryptocurrencies gradually changed, especially during this election, when he issued NFTs, began accepting cryptocurrency donations, and promised to introduce more cryptocurrency-friendly policies in the future.
From these four recent events, it can be seen that Trump chose to stand on the side of cryptocurrency when it comes to cryptocurrency issues:
According to reports , Trump announced “he would be the crypto president” at a recent fundraising event hosted by Craft Ventures partner David Sacks and technology tycoon and investor Chamath Hosted by Palihapitiya.
In a speech in May this year, when talking about cryptocurrency and President Biden, Trump directly said "If you're in favor of Crypto, you better vote for Trump" (If you support cryptocurrency, you better vote for Trump) Well vote for me).
He publicly expressed his support for the U.S. mining industry and expressed the hope that all Bitcoins could be mined in the United States in the future.
Trump had previously announced that he would attend and deliver a speech at the Bitcoin Conference at the end of this month. After the shooting, he confirmed that he would still attend as planned.
Trump's change in attitude towards cryptocurrency may be due to his own thoughts changing over time, or it may be because cryptocurrency has gradually become an important issue and enough people will change their voting intentions because of this issue. Politicians We must also begin to put aside our personal preferences and face the needs of cryptocurrency proponents. Some media reports said:
It's the first time crypto has become an issue in the general election of a presidential race.
How much cryptocurrency does Trump hold?
According to Arkham, a de-anonymized on-chain tracking tool , Trump currently holds approximately $10 million worth of crypto assets.
The biggest of these is his own meme coin $TRUMP.
Republican stance on cryptocurrencies
Trump is the presidential candidate nominated by the Republican Party. If Trump wins the election, the Republican Party will become the ruling party. The Republican Party’s attitude towards cryptocurrency is obviously different from that of the currently ruling Democratic Party.
To describe it in a relatively simplified way, when it comes to the issue of cryptocurrency regulation, the Democratic Party is more biased towards preventing fraud, paying more attention to consumer protection, the impact on the financial market, money laundering prevention, etc., and placing more emphasis on safe and transparent supervision. The Republican Party is more pro-profit, and more from the perspective of the cryptocurrency industry, what can be done to support but not kill the cryptocurrency industry, keep the cryptocurrency industry in the United States, and avoid excessive regulation.
Three recent events illustrate the Republican Party’s attitude toward cryptocurrencies:
The Republican Party Platform Adds Cryptocurrency-Related Issues <br>In the latest Republican Party Platform, cryptocurrency is directly mentioned
Republicans will end Democrats’ crackdown on cryptocurrencies and oppose the establishment of a central bank digital currency (CBDC). We will defend the right to mine Bitcoin and ensure that every American has the right to take custody of their digital assets and transact them without government surveillance and control.
(This paragraph is equivalent to expressing support for people’s right to mine and use DeFi)House of Representatives passes FIT 21 bill
FIT 21 is a bill that provides a regulatory framework for digital assets (such as cryptocurrency). By providing specific standards and structures, it avoids regulatory gray areas and gives cryptocurrency-related industries a direction to follow.
The FIT 21 bill was co-sponsored by several Republican congressmen. The vote in the House of Representatives was 279 in favor (208 Republicans and 71 Democrats) and 136 against (3 Republicans and 133 Democrats).
House passes repeal of SAB 121 guidelines
SAB 121 is an accounting standard proposed by the SEC in 2022, which requires companies to record Jiami assets as liabilities when entrusting them to customers and prepare corresponding asset reserves for the liabilities. Considered an accounting standard that would increase financial compliance costs.
The Republican-dominated House of Representatives launched a proposal to repeal SAB 121 this year and passed the abolition of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) with 228 votes in favor (207 Republican votes, 21 Democratic votes) and 182 votes against (1 Republican vote, 181 Democratic votes). Resolution of SAB 121, Accounting Standard for Cryptocurrencies. However, this resolution was vetoed by President Biden when it was sent to the President, and it has not yet succeeded in repealing the SAB 121 guideline.
It can be seen from the number of votes for and against the proposal that Republicans are more cryptocurrency-friendly than Democrats, and more people support cryptocurrency-friendly policies.
Cryptocurrency-related bigwigs support Trump
Both the Republican Party and Trump have clearly stated their support for cryptocurrency, and some well-known figures in the crypto have expressed support for Trump:
Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of Ark Invest
Sister Mu, a well-known figure in the crypto, has said that based on economic considerations, she will vote for Trump, believing that Trump’s election will be more beneficial to the cryptocurrency industry.Jesse Powell, co-founder of Kraken <br>Jesse Powell, co-founder of the veteran exchange Kraken, tweeted to criticize the current government’s wrong regulation of cryptocurrency, expressed support for Trump, and donated $1 million.
Winklevoss twins, founders of Gemini cryptocurrency exchange <br>Tyler Winklevoss, one of the twins, tweeted that the current Biden administration has abused its power in cryptocurrency regulation, and Trump is another choice for cryptocurrency supporters, He will vote for Trump and donate $1 million.
Ryan Selkis, founder of Messari <br>Messari, the leading cryptocurrency research and research organization, founder Ryan Selkis has a somewhat unique style and is also a well-known KOL in the crypto. He once tweeted : Fight for crypto. Support President Trump. ( Fight for Crypto and Support President Trump)
Current variables and uncertainties
Opponent candidates have not yet been confirmed
At the moment when the article was written, the Republican Party was holding its National Congress and announced the nomination of Trump as its candidate. Trump also announced that his deputy would be 39-year-old J.D. Vance. Judging from some of his past actions and remarks, he also has a quite friendly attitude towards cryptocurrency. According to the latest financial disclosure, JD Vance is a Bitcoin holder, holding approximately US$100,000 to US$250,000 worth of Bitcoin. He voted in favor of the proposal to repeal SAB 121, and once criticized SEC Chairman Gary Gensler as the "worst regulator" (Worst Regulator).
In other words, the current Republican Party itself, as well as the nominated presidential and vice presidential candidates, are more cryptocurrency-friendly than the current Biden administration. If the Republican Party wins the US presidential election, we should expect that cryptocurrency will obtain a more favorable development environment.
However, the opponent Democratic Party has not yet fully determined who will run for the election. It is currently expected that the current President Biden will run for re-election, but there may also be a replacement due to the gap in the polls. There are rumors that former first lady Michelle Obama. Obama may run for the election, and he has good support in polls, but these are only rumors and have not yet been confirmed.
What this mainly means is that there are still many variables in this U.S. presidential election when the opponent has not yet been confirmed. Who will be elected? Will the two parties propose more cryptocurrency-related policies in the future? It is still uncertain, so we need to continue to pay attention.
Important agenda for the US presidential election
July 15-July 18: Republican National Convention formally nominates Trump for president
August 19-August 22: Democratic National Convention, formal nomination of presidential candidate
November 5: Election voting day
Mid-December: Electoral vote (the special election system in the United States, the people vote first, and then the electors vote on behalf of the people based on the results of the people's vote)
2025 / January 20: Inauguration of the President and Vice President
Summary- Cryptocurrency is no longer a niche, but an important issue that can be put on the table to influence the US election.
It's the first time crypto has become an issue in the general election of a presidential race.
2024 is also a historical moment for the cryptocurrency industry. From the passage of the Bitcoin spot ETF at the beginning of the year, the passage of the FIT 21 bill by the House of Representatives, the passage of the Ethereum spot ETF, and the increasing discussion of encryption issues during the U.S. presidential election, the recognition of blockchain and For cryptocurrency enthusiasts, the long-awaited future is coming true.
But this also means that cryptocurrency has become more complicated, with more participants and more influencing variables. It will become increasingly difficult to make profits by investing in cryptocurrency. The era when you can easily make money simply by holding it may have passed. Modern currency players You must also understand some international politics and general economics.
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