Odaily星球日报讯 根据芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的 FedWatch 工具，9 月份降息的可能性已上调至 85.7%。

CME美联储观察：9月降息概率上升至85.7%

Odaily Odaily reported that according to the FedWatch tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the probability of a rate cut in September has been raised to 85.7%.

CME Fed Watch: The probability of a rate cut in September has risen to 85.7%.

Odaily Planet Daily Report: The Federal Reserve's policymakers are expected to keep interest rates at 5.25%-5.50% next week, until they begin a consecutive 25-basis-point rate cut in September. The latest data shows that the US economy regained growth momentum last quarter. Before the data was released, traders estimated the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates next week at around 9%, but after the government report showed the economy grew 2.8% last quarter, faster than expected and double the growth rate in the first quarter, this probability has fallen to below 7%. Ryan Sweet, an analyst at Oxford Economics, wrote that the reacceleration of the economy "should help alleviate concerns about the economy's ability to sustain expansion and dampen speculation that the Fed will need to cut rates in July." Traders continue to expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, November, and December, and they have also reduced their bets on the Federal Reserve potentially cutting rates further. Previously, traders estimated the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by more than 25 basis points before the September meeting at around 21%, but this has now decreased to around 15%.

Traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, November, and December respectively.

Interest rate futures continue to price in bets on the Federal Reserve beginning rate cuts in September, with expectations of rate cuts at each remaining meeting in 2024. (Golden Ten)

Interest rate futures continue to price in bets on the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, with expectations of a rate cut at each remaining meeting in 2024.

Odaily Odaily News: Antje Praefcke, a foreign exchange analyst at Commerzbank, said in a report that the upcoming U.S. economic data may reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will enter a rapid rate cut cycle in the coming months, but this is unlikely to have a substantial impact on the dollar. The first rate cut in September is now almost fully digested by the market, and the market believes that there is a high probability of two more rate cuts before the end of the year. If the U.S. second-quarter economic growth data released on Thursday and the personal consumption expenditure index released on Friday support these expectations, the dollar's reaction will be suppressed. Praefcke said: "However, if these data cast a shadow on market expectations, I expect (the dollar) to have a more obvious trend." (Jinshi)