据CME“美联储观察”，美联储9月降息25个基点的概率为78%，降息50个基点的概率为22%。美联储到11月累计降息50个基点的概率为29.1%，累计降息75个基点的概率为57.1%，累计降息100个基点的概率为13.8%。

<p>据CME“美联储观察”，美联储9月降息25个基点的概率为78%，降息50个基点的概率为22%。美联储到11月累计降息50个基点的概率为29.1%，累计降息75个基点的概率为57.1%，累计降息100个基点的概率为13.8%。</p>

美联储9月降息50个基点的概率上升

According to the CME "FED Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 78%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 22%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting interest rates by 50 basis points by November is 29.1%, the probability of a 75 basis point cut is 57.1%, and the probability of a 100 basis point cut is 13.8%.

<p>According to CME&#39;s &quot;Fed Watch&quot;, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 78%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 22%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points by November is 29.1%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 75 basis points is 57.1%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 100 basis points is 13.8%.</p>

The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 50 basis points in September has increased.

According to market information, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate swap market has fully priced in 3 rate cuts by the end of the year. (Gold Ten)

The US Federal Reserve's interest rate swap market has fully priced in three rate cuts by the end of the year.

According to a report by Stephen Brown, North American Deputy Chief Economist at Capital Economics, the Federal Reserve may change its wording this week to reflect the increasing likelihood of a rate cut at the next meeting, but doubts that it will give a clearer signal of a rate cut until the Jackson Hole symposium in August. Powell will have another opportunity to discuss interest rates at the meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming from August 22 to 24, where officials and economists from around the world will discuss policy.

Capital Economics: The Federal Reserve may change its wording this week, but it may give a clearer signal of its interest rate cut measures in August.

Although the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its July FOMC meeting, the Fed's statement and Powell's press conference both strongly signaled a rate cut in September. Powell explicitly stated at the press conference that if economic data continues to improve, particularly if inflation remains subdued, the Fed will consider a rate cut in September. This statement quickly became the focus of market attention and set the tone for the upcoming monetary policy adjustment.

Market expectations for a rate cut have heated up, and US stocks, crude oil, and gold have all risen.

Powell's speech was quickly transmitted to the market, triggering a broad-based celebration. The US stock market was the first to respond, with the three major indexes...