Morgan Chase has raised the probability of the US economy falling into recession by the end of the year to 35%.

Odaily Odaily News: JPMorgan Chase now believes that there is a 35% chance that the US economy will fall into recession by the end of this year, up from 25% at the beginning of last month. JPMorgan economists led by Bruce Kasman wrote in a report to clients on Wednesday that news from the United States "suggests that the weakening of labor demand has been more severe than expected, and initial signs of layoffs have emerged." The team maintained the probability of a recession in the second half of 2025 at 45%. "We have modestly raised our assessment of the risk of a recession, compared with a larger adjustment to our assessment of the interest rate outlook," Kasman and his colleagues wrote. JPMorgan now believes that there is only a 30% chance that the Federal Reserve and other central banks will keep interest rates high for a long time, compared to a 50% chance predicted just two months ago. As inflation pressures in the United States decline, JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September and November respectively. (Jinshi)