Odaily星球日报讯 CME “美联储观察”数据显示，美联储 9 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 51%，降息 50 个基点的概率为 49%。

CME美联储观察：美联储9月降息50个基点的概率为49%

Odaily Odaily reported that CME&#39;s &quot;Fed Watch&quot; data showed that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 51%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 49%.

CME Fed Watch: The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 50 basis points in September is 49%.

Table of Contents
- Bar kin: Time to Evaluate Decisions
- Schmid: Not Ready to Support Rate Cut Yet
- Market Estimates 56.5% Chance of 2 Rate Cuts in September
The US experienced an unexpected surge in unemployment last week, exacerbating market concerns about an impending economic recession, which led to a sharp short-term decline in US stocks and even dragged down global investment markets. Although the current panic has somewhat subsided, the market has already begun to digest a more aggressive Federal Reserve rate cut path.
The futures market indicates that investors expect about a 1% rate cut this year, and some economists predict that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 2 notches in September.

Federal Reserve officials unanimously stated: Inflation has cooled significantly, and there is ample time to make decisions...The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 2 points in September is over 50%.

According to Odaily, a survey by Bank of America showed that the proportion of investors who believe the US dollar will weaken has nearly doubled in the past month as the market prepares for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. In the bank's monthly sentiment survey, about 23% of respondents said their most confident trade is to short the US dollar, the highest proportion so far this year, up from 8% in July. The US dollar has outperformed most G10 currencies this year, but its rally has faltered in the past month as data showed the US economy is losing momentum, prompting traders to bet the US will cut rates significantly.

As the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut approaches, US bank customers are turning to sell the US dollar.

According to Odaily, the Dutch International Bank stated that although an economic recession is unlikely, the US dollar will face further declines due to the Federal Reserve potentially cutting interest rates in response to weak upcoming US economic data, which will reduce the inflow of safe-haven funds. Analyst Chris Turner said in the report that weak US data and the Federal Reserve's response would lead to a steeper yield curve and increased risk appetite, resulting in a weaker US dollar. The Federal Reserve may signal interest rate cuts at the Jackson Hole symposium on August 22-24. In the coming weeks, the US dollar index DXY may test 102.