Odaily星球日报讯 高盛经济学家 David Mericle 在最近的一份报告中说：“我们预计鲍威尔将对通胀前景表达更多的信心，并比他在 7 月 FOMC 会议后的新闻发布会上更强调劳动力市场的下行风险。” 高盛对美联储利率前景的预期与市场基本一致：预计美联储在接下来的三次会议每次都会降息，然后加大宽松力度，最终将联邦基金利率削减约 200 个基点。该行认为，鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔会议上非常笼统地预告这一政策路径。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 高盛经济学家 David Mericle 在最近的一份报告中说：“我们预计鲍威尔将对通胀前景表达更多的信心，并比他在 7 月 FOMC 会议后的新闻发布会上更强调劳动力市场的下行风险。”高盛对美联储利率前景的预期与市场基本一致：预计美联储在接下来的三次会议每次都会降息，然后加大宽松力度，最终将联邦基金利率削减约 200 个基点。该行认为，鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔会议上非常笼统地预告这一政策路径。（金十）

高盛：美联储会加大宽松力度最终将联邦基金利率削减约200个基点

According to a recent report by Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle, "We expect Powell to express more confidence in the inflation outlook and to emphasize the downside risks to the labor market more strongly than he did in his post-FOMC July press conference." Goldman Sachs' expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook are largely in line with the market: they expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates at each of the next three meetings, then increase the easing, ultimately reducing the federal funds rate by about 200 basis points. The bank believes that Powell will broadly preview this policy path at the Jackson Hole meeting. (Jinshi)

Odaily Odaily News: Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle said in a recent report: &quot;We expect Powell to express more confidence in the inflation outlook and emphasize the downside risks to the labor market more than he did in the press conference after the July FOMC meeting.&quot; Goldman Sachs&#39; expectations for the Fed&#39;s interest rate outlook are basically consistent with the market: the Fed is expected to cut interest rates at each of the next three meetings, and then increase easing efforts, eventually cutting the federal funds rate by about 200 basis points. The bank believes that Powell will very generally announce this policy path at the Jackson Hole meeting. (Jinshi)

Goldman Sachs: The Fed will increase its easing efforts and eventually cut the federal funds rate by about 200 basis points

Tonight, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech is closely watched as market concerns about the outlook for the U.S. economy continue to grow.

Big news! The Fed Chairman is about to speak

Here is the translation to English:

According to the news from Mars Finance, since taking office as the Federal Reserve Chairman in 2018, Powell has delivered six important speeches at the Jackson Hole conference. The key information from his past speeches and the impact on the 2-year US Treasury yield and investment bank expectations, which are relatively sensitive to interest rates, are as follows:

On August 24, 2018, the 2-year US Treasury yield decreased by 1 basis point after the speech. He advocated for gradual rate hikes as a compromise, with the market gradually understanding it as once per quarter; expressed doubts about the forecasted values of r* (neutral interest rate) and u* (neutral unemployment rate); pointed out that the risk of overheating includes financial over-expansion, not just high inflation.

On August 23, 2019, the 2-year US Treasury yield decreased by 4 basis points after the speech. He advocated for further rate cuts to address a series of downside risks, and hinted that the market had already priced in rate cuts to maintain loose financial conditions. Subsequently, Goldman Sachs increased its expectations for further rate cuts.

On August 27, 2020, the 2-year US Treasury yield increased by 0.4 basis points after the speech. He announced the adoption of a flexible average inflation target, concluding the evaluation of the monetary policy framework. This is an important long-term easing shift, but largely in line with expectations. Goldman Sachs brought forward the expected timing of changes to forward guidance and asset purchase plans by one meeting.

On August 27, 2021, the 2-year US Treasury yield decreased by 2 basis points after the speech. While acknowledging the recent strong employment data, he also pointed out the downside risks posed by the Delta variant of COVID-19; reinforced the expectation of an imminent announcement of tapering asset purchases.

On August 26, 2022, the 2-year US Treasury yield increased by 4 basis points after the speech. He reiterated that it would be appropriate to slow the pace of rate hikes at some point, but also stated that policy may need to remain restrictive for a considerable time to control inflation, and indicated that an additional 75 basis points may be appropriate, but would depend on the data.

On August 25, 2023, the 2-year US Treasury yield increased by 4 basis points after the speech. He stated that the Federal Reserve will act cautiously in deciding whether to raise rates at the next meeting or during this cycle, indicating that there may not be another rate hike at the next meeting or within this cycle; made a more hawkish risk assessment and pointed out that the Federal Reserve is aware that the economy may not cool as expected.

Powell's Six Previous Jackson Hole Annual Meeting Speech Review

Odaily Odaily reported that before the release of revised US employment data, traders increased their bets on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and now expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a total of 100 basis points in 2024.