Odaily星球日报讯 宝盛集团经济学家 David Meier 在一份报告中表示，如果美国大幅降息的预期减弱，美元可能会反弹，但涨幅将有限。他表示：“我们不认为美元会重返 2022 年底的高点，因为估值过高和利率走低令其走势存在很大阻力。”预计英镑、澳元和纽元等货币兑美元可能会继续走强，因为这些国家的降息速度可能不会像美国那么快。他表示，尤其是英镑和纽元，其央行年底前的利率可能会高于美国。（金十）

宝盛集团：若大幅降息预期减弱美元可能会反弹，但涨幅将有限

Odaily Odaily News: David Meier, an economist at Bosch, said in a report that if expectations of a sharp interest rate cut in the United States weaken, the dollar may rebound, but the gains will be limited. He said: &quot;We don&#39;t think the dollar will return to its highs at the end of 2022 because overvaluation and low interest rates pose great resistance to its movement.&quot; It is expected that currencies such as the pound, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar may continue to strengthen against the US dollar because these countries may not cut interest rates as quickly as the United States. He said that especially the pound and the New Zealand dollar, their central banks may have higher interest rates than the United States before the end of the year. (Jinshi)

Julius Baer: The dollar may rebound if expectations of a sharp rate cut weaken, but the gains will be limited

According to Odaily, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated in his speech at Jackson Hole last Friday that "now is the time to cut interest rates." Subsequently, the market's expectation of a 50-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the September meeting has increased. Deutsche Bank strategists pointed out that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits has actually remained stable, and even declined, in the past few weeks. The strategists believe that the US economy may not be in trouble, and they are shorting 10-year US Treasuries, with a target yield of 4.1% and a stop-loss at 3.65%. They stated that the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve has already been priced in, as the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by at least 50 basis points in at least one of the three remaining meetings this year, ultimately lowering the interest rate from the current range of 5.25%-5.5% to 3%.

Deutsche Bank strategist: Markets have already expected at least one 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year

According to a report by Erik Boekel, Chief Business Officer of DHF Capital, if the Federal Reserve makes a significant 50-basis-point rate cut in September, the US Treasury yield may decline further. Refinitiv data shows that the US money market currently expects a 34-basis-point rate cut in September, meaning the likelihood of a 25-basis-point cut is greater than a 50-basis-point cut. He stated: "Overall, the expected easing cycle is expected to put pressure on the US dollar and US Treasury yields."

DHF Capital: If the Fed cuts interest rates by 50 basis points in September, U.S. Treasury yields may fall

Table of Contents
- Will the Federal Reserve likely cut rates by 2 points in September?
- The United States is about to cut interest rates, and the market is turning to "US dollar carry trade"
- Wall Street estimates that PCE data is positive, supporting the Federal Reserve's rate cut in September
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Friday at the Jackson Hole annual meeting that the time to cut interest rates has come, "the time to adjust policy has arrived", and "the timing and pace of rate cuts depend on the upcoming data, the constantly changing outlook, and the balance of risks". This is his most explicit signal for a rate cut so far.
The Federal Reserve may likely cut rates by 2 points in September...

Powell made it clear that the Fed will cut interest rates soon, Wall Street: "The carry trade is reviving" and this time the protagonist is the U.S. dollar