Odaily星球日报讯 交易员认为，特朗普 2.0 将导致通胀，因此押注美债收益率和美元将走强。但最近几周，随着民主党候选人哈里斯改变了竞选局面，并消除了特朗普在民意调查中的优势，这一交易的势头有所减弱。随着交易员为美联储转向做准备，彭博美元即期指数 8 月份迄今为止已下跌近 2%，这是自去年底市场过早为美联储转向做准备以来的最大跌幅。不过，这一次，美联储官员明确表示，随着通胀降温，他们终于准备好开始进行本周期的首次降息。（金十）

交易员认为特朗普2.0将导致通胀，开始为美联储转向做准备

Odaily Odaily News: Traders believe that Trump 2.0 will lead to inflation, so they bet on stronger U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar. But in recent weeks, the momentum of this trade has weakened as Democratic candidate Harris has changed the campaign situation and eliminated Trump&#39;s advantage in the polls. As traders prepare for the Fed&#39;s shift, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has fallen nearly 2% so far in August, the biggest drop since the market prematurely prepared for the Fed&#39;s shift at the end of last year. However, this time, Fed officials made it clear that as inflation cools, they are finally ready to start the first rate cut of this cycle. (Jinshi)

Traders see Trump 2.0 as inflationary, prepare for Fed shift

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Federal Reserve Governor Bostic stated that the inflation rate has declined significantly from its peak in 2022, but recent data is still "far from the central bank's 2% target". He said, "To bring inflation down to the target, I have been highly focused on the short term." Bostic said officials have begun discussing what level interest rates will stabilize in the long run, and added that he set the neutral rate at 3% in the latest economic forecast summary released in June. Just a day earlier, the Atlanta Fed president reiterated his expectation of an earlier rate cut. He added that he would rather wait for more data to confirm the economic trend, rather than cut rates too early and then have to raise them again when inflation accelerates.

Fed's Bostic: Inflation still far from Fed's 2% target

The highly anticipated US presidential election is down to less than 70 days, and after the incumbent President Biden officially announced his decision not to run for re-election, his battle with Kamala Harris is gradually intensifying.

However, against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve (Fed) hinting at a possible interest rate cut in September, there have been recent warnings from economists that if Trump is re-elected as president, it may trigger a new round of inflationary rebound, as his "America First" policy could drive up global costs.

Nobel Laureate in Economics: Trump 2.0 may exacerbate inflation
In this regard, the 2008 Nobel Laureate in Economics has...

"Trump 2.0" six policies may set off huge waves of inflation again, Nobel Prize winner in economics: The market underestimates the disastrous consequences

"The time has come to lower the target interest rate, and now is the time for policy adjustment."

On August 23, local time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell attended the Jackson Hole meeting, and his speech clearly signaled a rate cut. After the 2008 financial crisis, the Jackson Hole meeting often became a forward-looking guide for various monetary policies. His remarks were seen as a signal that the rate cut cycle was about to begin, adding fuel to the already strong expectations for the September policy meeting.

Looking at the timing in late August, how will the Federal Reserve implement the rate cut? Regarding the Federal Reserve's rate cut...