Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market platform, has won a lawsuit against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over its plan to offer contracts predicting which party will control each chamber of Congress after the November elections .
“We did it!” the company said in a statement on its website on Friday. “The US election market is coming to Kalshi.”
This victory marks a significant turning point for the US election prediction and betting market industry. The ruling is not only a win for Kalshi but also a substantial success for the broader prediction market community, who believe these markets offer valuable and potentially more accurate insights than traditional polls.
Prediction markets operate on the principle that investors placing bets on their predictions will lead to more accurate predictions of actual events. Kalshi's victory could pave the way for the company's presence in the election betting sector, especially after being sidelined during a crucial period related to election trading.
However, the current landscape remains complex. Kalshi's approach – conducting transactions in US dollars and complying with CFTC regulations – differs from platforms like Polymarket , which utilizes cryptocurrency and operates on blockchain technology. Polymarket has seen a significant increase in activity, particularly around election contracts, but also faces legal challenges, including a ban on US residents under an agreement with the CFTC.
The CFTC's stance on prediction markets remains unclear, as evidenced by its XEM of banning contracts related to political contests. This could lead to legal disputes and regulatory developments in the future. Currently, Kalshi's victory is not only a significant achievement but also opens the door for the company to participate in the election betting frenzy, potentially reshaping how prediction markets are regulated and perceived in the U.S.
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According to Cointelegraph
