Bitcoin investors should brace for a “tough season” in September, as the month has historically delivered the worst Medium returns, according to Bitcoin financial services platform NYDIG.
“Unfortunately, potential upcoming catalysts for Bitcoin remain few and far between,” Greg Cipolaro, global director of research at NYDIG, wrote in a September 10 market update.
Cipolaro added that Bitcoin investors may only be looking for a few catalysts outside of the cryptocurrency in the coming weeks, focusing closely on very specific macroeconomic developments.
“Most catalysts are related to macroeconomic data (inflation, unemployment, GDP growth) or monetary decisions (FOMC interest rate decisions) and very few catalysts are related to crypto or Bitcoin.”
Bitcoin (BTC) rose more than 3% on the day, supported by solid performance from the tech-heavy S&P 500 and Nasdaq, both of which closed with respective gains of 1.16% on September 9.
Some commentators have noted that September has historically been the worst month for Bitcoin prices, with the largest cryptocurrency recording an Medium monthly loss of 5.9% in September over the 13 years since 2011.
The fourth quarter of the year – now less than three weeks away – is typically the time when Bitcoin sees its strongest growth, with October and November recording Medium gains of 16.1% and 40.6% respectively, according to NYDIG data.
Cipolaro said the most “prominent” concern for the cryptocurrency market is the upcoming U.S. presidential election in November.
Former President Donald Trump has made his mark as a crypto-friendly candidate but little is known about Vice President Kamala Harris’ stance on digital assets, which will most likely lead to increased uncertainty and volatility in the near term.
“We won’t predict which candidate will win, but November could be a pivotal moment for the industry. Until then, however, Bitcoin may depend on the broader market backdrop,” Cipolaro said.
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