Odaily星球日报讯 加密货币分析师 Willy Woo 于 X 发文表示：“短期：时机信号为 1-3 周的看涨波动。 中期：自 4 月减半以来，供需关系看跌，但过去 4 周可能已经开始出现反转形态（尚未确认），距离比特币突破历史新高还需要更多时间。 宏观：风险信号印证了更低的低点，比特币并不处于熊市中，而是在一个重新累积的模式中等待。 传统金融风险：债券利率正在下降，这可能是避免潜在崩溃的坏兆头，过去的例子包括 2020 年疫情、2008 年世界金融危机。在过去的案例中，这会在所有资产类别出现长期流动性推动的反弹之前导致崩盘。”

Odaily星球日报讯 加密货币分析师 Willy Woo 于 X 发文表示：“短期：时机信号为 1-3 周的看涨波动。中期：自 4 月减半以来，供需关系看跌，但过去 4 周可能已经开始出现反转形态（尚未确认），距离比特币突破历史新高还需要更多时间。宏观：风险信号印证了更低的低点，比特币并不处于熊市中，而是在一个重新累积的模式中等待。传统金融风险：债券利率正在下降，这可能是避免潜在崩溃的坏兆头，过去的例子包括 2020 年疫情、2008 年世界金融危机。在过去的案例中，这会在所有资产类别出现长期流动性推动的反弹之前导致崩盘。”

Willy Woo：宏观来看比特币并非处于熊市，而是在重新累积的模式中蛰伏

Cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo posted on X stating: "Short-term: The timing signal is for a bullish fluctuation of 1-3 weeks. Medium-term: Since the halving in April, the supply-demand relationship has been bearish, but the reversal pattern may have started to appear in the past 4 weeks (not yet confirmed), and it will take more time to break through Bitcoin's all-time high. Macro: The risk signal confirms lower lows, Bitcoin is not in a bear market, but in a mode of re-accumulation waiting. Traditional financial risk: Bond yields are declining, which may be a bad omen to avoid a potential collapse, past examples include the 2020 pandemic and the 2008 global financial crisis. In past cases, this has led to a collapse before a long-term liquidity-driven rebound across all asset classes."

Odaily Odaily News: Willy Woo, a cryptocurrency analyst, wrote on X: &quot;Short-term: The timing signal is a bullish volatility of 1-3 weeks. Medium-term: Since the halving in April, supply and demand have been bearish, but a reversal pattern may have begun to appear in the past 4 weeks (not yet confirmed), and it will take more time for Bitcoin to break through its all-time high. Macro: Risk signals confirm lower lows. Bitcoin is not in a bear market, but is waiting in a re-accumulation mode. Traditional financial risks: Bond interest rates are falling, which may be a bad sign for avoiding potential collapses. Past examples include the 2020 epidemic and the 2008 world financial crisis. In past cases, this will lead to a crash before a long-term liquidity-driven rebound in all asset classes.&quot;

Willy Woo: From a macro perspective, Bitcoin is not in a bear market, but is dormant in a re-accumulation mode

Bitcoin has fallen more than 25% from its peak earlier this year, is now the time to flee before it collapses further?

[Image] Image from ChatBox

Historically, September is the worst trading month of the year. Concerning economic indicators have increased the likelihood of a recession, with billions of dollars in leveraged long positions being liquidated. Hundreds of millions of dollars in "historic" capital outflows have been pounding Bitcoin ETFs for several days. Analysts warn that when Bitcoin's trading price reaches $54,000, it will drop to a low of $40,000. Just a few months ago, Bitcoin's bull run was being widely touted...

Is it time to give up on Bitcoin?

According to data from CryptoQuant, in the current risk-averse environment, investors seem to prefer traditional safe-haven assets such as gold rather than Bitcoin. The correlation between Bitcoin and gold has recently dropped significantly to negative values, with gold prices recently reaching a new high of over $2,500 per ounce, while Bitcoin has been declining, currently more than 20% lower than its record high of over $73,000 set in March. As investors buy gold and sell Bitcoin, the US stock market has been performing poorly, with the S&P 500 index falling 3.6% since August 30. CryptoQuant's bull-bear cycle indicator has been in a bear market phase since August 27, when Bitcoin's trading price was $62,000. Since August 26, the MVRV ratio (market value to realized value) has also been below the 365-day moving average, indicating that the price may adjust further. A drop in the MVRV ratio below the moving average was a precursor to Bitcoin's 36% decline in May 2021. (CoinDesk)

Analysis: The correlation between Bitcoin and gold turns negative, and investors prefer traditional safe-haven assets

According to on-chain data, the weekly MACD of Bitcoin has been negative since April, but the Bitcoin price has been maintaining a slightly downward sloping channel between $50,000 and $70,000, forming a "bull flag" pattern, rather than a sharp downward trend, which is inconsistent with the persistent MACD signal. The indicator data shows that since the end of April, MACD has been persistently bearish, coupled with the flag-shaped price pattern, suggesting that there is a bullish sentiment underlying the surface price behavior. This indicates that the sellers have not been able to form a strong downward trend, even during the panic selling period in early August, they only managed to suppress the price between $55,000 and $50,000. The long-term weakness of the sellers suggests that the bull market may suddenly rebound, leading to a price increase.