On September 16, the yen broke through the key psychological level of 140 against the dollar today for the first time since July 2023, extending its gains since hitting a near 38-year low in July. The yen is the best performing G10 currency this quarter, rising 15% as investors expect the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan to narrow further. There seems to be no doubt that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this week, the only question is how much, and the Bank of Japan is expected to keep its interest rate unchanged on Friday after raising it twice this year.
"It's mainly the Fed's countdown and the risk that they might cut rates by 50 basis points this week instead of 25 basis points," which is supporting the yen, said Gareth Berry, a strategist at Macquarie Group in Singapore. "Even if expectations for Fed easing don't change, the passage of time alone will push dollar-yen lower." The yen's fortunes have changed dramatically since it hit a low of 161.95 against the dollar on July 3. Japan has intervened in the market several times before to boost the yen, but now the yen has risen too quickly, affecting the prospects of exporters and, in turn, Japanese stocks. (Jinshi)
