Odaily星球日报讯 近期美国数据似乎表明，美联储可能在周中降息 25 个基点。法国兴业银行宏观策略师基特•朱克斯表示，市场有可能迫使美联储降息 50 个基点。他补充说，未来几天美国的零售销售和工业生产数据可能会影响人们的看法。他说，如果零售销售疲软推高了定价，联邦公开市场委员会可能会担心跟不上形势。（金十）

法兴银行：市场有可能迫使美联储降息50个基点

Odaily Odaily News: Recent US data seems to indicate that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the middle of the week. Kit Jukes, a macro strategist at Societe Generale, said that the market may force the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. He added that US retail sales and industrial production data in the next few days may affect people&#39;s views. He said that if weak retail sales push up pricing, the Federal Open Market Committee may worry about not keeping up with the situation. (Jinshi)

Societe Generale: Markets could force the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points

PANews reported on September 15 that, according to Jinshi, after the release of the US CPI report earlier this week, the market almost believed that the Federal Reserve would make a slight rate cut of 25 basis points this month, but the situation reversed rapidly from Thursday. At that time, former New York Fed President Dudley said the Federal Reserve had reason to cut rates by 50 basis points next week, and the reporter from The Wall Street Journal, known as the "Federal Reserve News Agency", and the Financial Times also reported that the Federal Reserve faced a difficult choice between cutting rates by 50 basis points or 25 basis points, and then the market's bet on the Federal Reserve making a significant rate cut next week rose significantly to a "fifty-fifty" chance. There will be many key events next week:
Monday 20:30, US September New York Fed Manufacturing Index;
Tuesday 20:30, US August Retail Sales MoM;
Wednesday 14:00, UK August CPI MoM, UK August Retail Price Index MoM;
Thursday 2:00, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary;
Thursday 2:30, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference;
Thursday 20:30, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending September 14, US September Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index;
Friday 11:00, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision;
Friday 14:30, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda will hold a monetary policy press conference.

Outlook for next week: The Federal Reserve leads the "Super Central Bank Week", Powell holds a monetary policy press conference

According to the analysis of the institution, Australian bond traders have many things to focus on domestically and internationally this week. The market generally expects the US Federal Reserve FOMC to start cutting interest rates this week, and the real controversy is the extent of the rate cut. If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, it may exacerbate the attack on the hawkish rhetoric of the Reserve Bank of Australia, highlighting that the Reserve Bank of Australia is lagging behind the increasingly global central banks that are cutting interest rates.

Recently, the Reserve Bank of Australia has been criticized for "damaging the economy" due to high interest rates. As for the domestic situation in Australia, the country's employment data for September will be released on Thursday. Economists expect that the number of jobs will increase steadily, and the unemployment rate will drop to 4.1%.

Institutional view: If the Fed cuts interest rates sharply, the hawkish stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia will be hit hard

But many people may have overlooked another important financial event next week, which is that the Bank of Japan will hold a meeting on September 20 (Friday) and announce its interest rate decision, and this may well conceal a black swan. I believe most people have not forgotten the unexpected rate hike by the Bank of Japan in early August that triggered the global financial Black Monday, and this landmine is still there.